Louisville Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Picks and Predictions, Friday, November 21st, 2025
Use Code WWWC The #6 Louisville Cardinals (4-0) and the Cincinnati Bearcats (4-0) will renew their rivalry in a non-conference battle on Friday night in this Louisville vs. Cincinnati prediction. Louisville is coming off an easy home win over Ohio, taking the game 106-81 as 31.5-point favorites who could not cover the spread. Cincy is also off a home win, as they took down Mount Saint Mary's 72-55, but also missed the cover as 25.5-point favorites. Tipoff is set for 6:30 EST and can be found on ESPN2. See below for our Louisville vs. Cincinnati prediction, and check out all of our winning NCAAB Betting Picks!
Louisville is Riding High
The Louisville Cardinals are 4-0 on the season, but many big-time programs have only played smaller schools at this point of the season. This is not true for Louisville, as they already battled #9 Kentucky and sent them home with an eight-point loss. The Cardinals have now climbed up to 6th in the nation, and have one of the top prospects for the upcoming NBA Draft. Mikal Brown is their elite freshman, and he finished their last game against Ohio with 19 points and seven assists in the win.
Brown will only be on campus for one season, as the 6'5 freshman guard is all but a lock to get drafted in the lottery in this upcoming draft. The Cardinals will still enjoy their season with the future pro, as he is averaging 19.3 PPG and 6.8 APG as a tall guard who can control the offense. Ryan Conwell is a well-traveled guard who made a name for himself with Indiana State, but then put up big numbers fort Xavier last season. This year, Conwell is getting another 19.3 PPG and 4.5 RPG as an athletic wing. Isaac McKneely is an outside shooter getting another 12.3 PPG for Louisville.
Louisville is currently ranked 10th overall out of 365 Division I teams in KenPom. They are 2nd in offensive efficiency but only 59th in defensive efficiency. The Cardinals play fast, ranking 28th in the nation in pace of play.
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Bearcats Face First Test
The Cincinnati Bearcats have an undefeated record through their first four games, but have not been truly tested up to this moment. Their best win of the season so far has been an eight point win over Dayton, but the Bearcats have yet to face a power conference school, which could either put them into a top 25 spot with a win or on the outside looking in with a loss. In their last game, Cincy got 16 points and five assists from Day Day Thomas in the win over Mount Saint Mary's.
Thomas is a 6'1 senior guard who has been with the team since his freshman season three years ago. This year he is getting 14.0 PPG and 4.0 APG, and is leading the team with 11 made threes through their first four games of the season. Cincy is now being led by their transfer big man, as Baba Miller is getting 15.8 PPG and 10.5 RPG on the interior as a 6'11 senior. Miller started his career at Florida State, before playing a productive season with Florida Atlantic last year and now leading the Bearcats as their best player.
Cincinnati is ranked 42nd overall according to KenPom. They are 134th in offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive efficiency. They play even faster than Louisville, ranking 25th in the nation in pace of play.
Louisville vs. Cincinnati Picks and Predictions
Spread pick for Louisville vs. Cincinnati
- Cincinnati +8.5 (5 units)
This game is not on Cincinnati's campus, but the Hoops Classic game is still being played in Cincinnati, making it feel like a home game for the Bearcats. Louisville is playing their first game off campus, and are led by freshman players who have not yet had to deal with life on the road. Cincinnati is an experienced squad. Day Day Thomas has been leading their perimeter players for the past several years, while Baba Miller is a beast in the middle who has been a solid contributor in college hoops for the past four seasons. This is too many points; take the Bearcats and get the cover here.
Take Cincinnati plus the points.
Over/Under Pick for Louisville vs. Cincinnati
- Under 164 (4 units)
This is a big number for a game that nearly has a double-digit spread. If Louisville is truly eight or ten points better than Cincy, they will have to score 90 points in this game to hit the over. I am not seeing this happen, as the Cardinals are led by a high-profile freshman who has not played a game off Louisville's campus yet in his college career. This will be a hard-fought game that will be lower scoring than expected. Cincy is second in the nation in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. This is due to 6-11 Baba Miller, a transfer who will patrol the paint again and keep this a low-scoring game.
Take the under.
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