Louisville Cardinals vs Indiana Hoosiers Prediction and Picks - December 6, 2025
Use Code WWWC ACC College hoops action on Saturday afternoon, and we have a Louisville vs Indiana prediction ready to rock and roll. Louisville comes in off an 89-80 loss to Arkansas, which dropped them to 7-1 on the year. Indiana is also off to a 7-1 start, and they are off a 73-64 loss to Minnesota on the road. Louisville took last year's meeting on the road by a score of 89-61. Continue reading to see our Louisville vs Indiana prediction.
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Cards Can't Stop The Hogs
Louisville’s most recent game was an 89–80 loss at Arkansas on December 3, their first defeat of the season after a 7–0 start. Freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr. led the Cardinals with 22 points, while Ryan Conwell added 15. Sananda Fru pulled down eight rebounds, but Louisville struggled from deep, hitting just 8 of 37 three‑point attempts. Despite a strong second‑half push, the Cardinals couldn’t overcome Arkansas’ hot shooting and rebounding edge.
The Cardinals have been one of the most potent offensive teams in the country, averaging 94.6 points per game (9th nationally) while shooting 47.2% from the field. Conwell has been the go‑to scorer at 19.5 points per game, and Brown Jr. has quickly established himself as a dynamic playmaker with 17.6 points and 5.6 assists per game. Isaac McKneely provides perimeter shooting at 41% from three, while Fru adds interior scoring and rebounding. Louisville’s ability to spread the floor with multiple shooters and attack inside makes them a nightmare matchup, and their pace has consistently overwhelmed opponents.
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Defensively, Louisville has held opponents to just 66.3 points per game, ranking 51st nationally. They’ve been particularly effective at limiting field‑goal percentage, holding teams to 36.9% shooting overall. Fru anchors the paint with his size, while Conwell and Brown Jr. pressure opposing guards. The Cardinals rebound well, averaging 44.8 boards per game, and their ability to turn defense into transition offense has fueled their scoring runs. Against Indiana, Louisville will look to bounce back from the Arkansas loss by tightening up their perimeter defense and re‑establishing their offensive rhythm.
Hoosiers Suffer Surprising Loss To Minnesota
Indiana’s most recent game was a 73–64 loss at Minnesota on December 3, their first defeat of the season. Tayton Conerway led the Hoosiers with 18 points, while Lamar Wilkerson added 15. Indiana struggled on the glass, getting outrebounded 40–25, and shot just 40% from the field. Despite a late push, Minnesota’s balanced scoring and rebounding proved too much, handing Indiana its first setback after a 7–0 start.
The Hoosiers have been efficient offensively, averaging 86.4 points per game while shooting 49.2% from the field. Tucker DeVries leads the team with 16.8 points per game, shooting 42% from three, while Wilkerson adds 16.5 points with strong perimeter shooting. Conerway has been a steady playmaker, averaging 12.6 points and 4.9 assists, while Reed Bailey and Sam Alexis provide frontcourt scoring and rebounding. Indiana’s offense thrives on ball movement, ranking among the nation’s leaders with 20 assists per game, and their ability to spread the scoring load makes them difficult to defend.
Defensively, Indiana has been strong, allowing just 63.8 points per game (18th nationally). They’ve held opponents to 37.5% shooting overall, and their perimeter defense has limited teams to 30.8% from three. Alexis has been a key rim protector, while DeVries and Wilkerson provide length on the perimeter. The Hoosiers’ defensive rebounding has been solid, but their struggles against Minnesota highlighted a potential weakness on the boards. Facing Louisville’s high‑octane offense, Indiana will need to control the glass and slow the pace to keep the Cardinals from running wild in transition.
Louisville vs Indiana Pick
Louisville vs Indiana Spread Pick
- Indiana +4.5 (4 Units)
Indiana +4.5 looks like the right side because the Hoosiers have shown they can hang with high‑powered offenses thanks to their efficiency and balance. They average 86.4 points per game while shooting nearly 49% from the field, and Tucker DeVries along with Lamar Wilkerson give them two reliable scorers who can create their own shots. Tayton Conerway adds playmaking with almost five assists per game, and the frontcourt duo of Reed Bailey and Sam Alexis provides interior scoring and rebounding. Even in their recent loss to Minnesota, Indiana showed resilience, and their ability to spread the floor with multiple shooters makes them well‑suited to keep pace with Louisville’s uptempo attack.
On the defensive side, Indiana has been one of the better units in the country, holding opponents to just 63.8 points per game (18th nationally) and limiting teams to 37.5% shooting overall. That kind of defensive efficiency is critical against a Louisville team that averages nearly 95 points per game. The Hoosiers also defend the perimeter well, allowing just 30.8% from three, which matches up directly with Louisville’s heavy reliance on outside shooting. With Indiana’s ability to slow the game down, rebound effectively, and force Louisville into tougher looks, grabbing the points with the Hoosiers feels like the sharper play, especially in a neutral‑site matchup where their defensive discipline can keep things tight.
Louisville vs Indiana Over/Under Pick
- Under 159 (5 Units)
The Under 159 makes sense here because both Louisville and Indiana have shown strong defensive efficiency and slower stretches when facing quality opponents, which naturally keeps scoring in check. Louisville averages nearly 95 points per game, but they also hold opponents to just 66.3 points on 36.9% shooting, while Indiana allows only 63.8 points per game (18th nationally) and limits teams to 37.5% from the field. Both squads rebound well and force opponents into tough looks, and in a neutral‑site matchup with heightened intensity, possessions tend to be longer and shot selection more deliberate. With two defenses ranked inside the top 20 nationally in points allowed, the pace and efficiency lean toward a game that stays below the 159‑point total.
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