Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans Picks and Predictions for Saturday, March 21, 2026
Use Code WWWC Louisville and Michigan State meet at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York, for an NCAA Tournament East Region second-round matchup on Saturday at 2:45 PM ET on CBS. Louisville is 24-10 after beating South Florida 83-79 in the first round, while Michigan State is 26-7 after a 92-67 win over North Dakota State. The Cardinals are listed as 4.5-point underdogs, and the total is 150.5. Cash a winning ticket with our free college basketball picks.
Louisville Has Enough Shot-Making to Push Michigan State
Louisville averages 84.8 points per game and allows 72.4, with a roster built around perimeter scoring and steady frontcourt play at the rim. Ryan Conwell leads the Cardinals in scoring at 18.7 points per game and also leads the team in steals at 1.2. Sananda Fru is Louisville’s top rebounder at 6.0 per game and its blocks leader at 1.4, while Aly Khalifa leads the team in assists at 2.6. Mikel Brown Jr. averages 18.2 points and 4.7 assists, but is out.
In the tournament opener, Isaac McKneely led Louisville with 23 points and hit seven 3-pointers, while Conwell added 18 points with 11 coming after halftime. Fru posted 10 points and 10 rebounds, giving Louisville control inside. The Cardinals built a 23-point lead, then nearly gave it away against South Florida’s pressure. Louisville committed a season-high 22 turnovers, and that could hurt here because Michigan State is far more equipped to punish careless teams than South Florida was.
The Cardinals still have offensive range in this matchup. J’Vonne Hadley gives Louisville another physical scorer at 11.8 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. Louisville averages 17.1 assists and shoots 47% from the field, so the offense can still function at a high level without Brown. The problem is that the ball security issues from Thursday now carry directly into a game against one of the best point guards in the country and a team that thrives when it turns stops into quick offense.
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Key Injuries - Louisville Cardinals
- Mikel Brown - Out
- Mouhamed Camara - Out
- London Johnson - Out
Michigan State’s First-Round Performance Looked Strong
Michigan State averages 78.9 points per game and allows 68.4, and the Spartans looked sharp in their opener. Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the team in scoring at 15.7 points per game and also leads the nation in assists with 9.2 per game. Jaxon Kohler is the team’s top rebounder at 9.0 per contest, while Carson Cooper leads Michigan State in blocks at 0.9. The Spartans do not need one player to carry the offense because the scoring is spread across several frontcourt and wing options.
The win over North Dakota State showed exactly what Michigan State wants this game to be. Cooper led the Spartans with 20 points and 10 rebounds. Coen Carr added 17 points, Cam Ward scored 13, and Kohler finished with 12 points and nine rebounds. Fears scored only seven points, but he handed out 11 assists and controlled the pace the entire game. Michigan State shot 59%, scored 44 points in the paint, and finished with 26 assists, the most the program has ever recorded in an NCAA Tournament game.
That balance is what makes this matchup difficult for Louisville. Michigan State can win through transition, through Fears in the middle of the floor, or through its size around the basket. The Spartans also had a 35-23 rebounding edge and allowed no second-chance points in the opener.
Key Injuries - Michigan State Spartans
- Kaleb Glenn - Out
- Divine Ugochukwu - Out
Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans Pick - Spread
- Michigan State -4.5
Louisville has enough perimeter scoring to stay in range, but the turnover issue from the South Florida game is a major red flag here. Michigan State is deeper, stronger on the glass, and more comfortable playing a physical game for a full 40 minutes. Fears will control tempo, and the Spartans’ interior production will be hard for Louisville to contain. Michigan State is the play at -4.5.
Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans - Over/Under Pick
- Over 150.5
Both teams come off first-round games where the offenses had long stretches of control. Louisville can score from the perimeter, and Michigan State can create efficient looks in transition and in the paint. Even if the Spartans dictate the game, Louisville has enough shot-making to push the score over the line. The play is over 150.5.
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