Marquette vs. UConn Picks and Prediction for Sunday, January 4, 2026
On Sunday, the Marquette Golden Eagles and UConn Huskies will battle on the hardwood at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion, and we have you ready to go with our Marquette vs. UConn prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Storrs, CT, is at 2:00 p.m. ET.
These Big East hoops squads played twice last season, and the Huskies won both games. Connecticut has won five straight in the series and is 8-2 both straight-up and against the spread in its last ten matchups with Marquette. The over/under was split 5-5 in those games. If you want the Marquette vs. UConn prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
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Marquette has covered the spread only twice
Marquette (5-9 SU, 2-11-1 ATS, and 7-7 O/U) lost 79-73 to Seton Hall in its previous game (Tuesday), failing to cover as one-point spread favorites at home. The Golden Eagles, who are 0-3 in conference play, shot just 37 percent from the field and missed 19 threes. The Pirates dominated on the glass (51-33 rebounding advantage with 20 offensive rebounds) and knocked down 22 of their 29 free throws. Marquette led for 60 percent of the game, but was never able to put Seton Hall away.
The Golden Eagles were 23-11 last season, tied for fourth place with a 13-7 mark in Big East competition. The season ended on a sour note, though, as they lost to New Mexico in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Marquette is led by fifth-year head coach Shaka Smart, who has compiled a 100-41 record with four straight NCAA Tournament appearances (one Sweet 16). Top scorers Kam Jones, David Joplin, and Stevie Mitchell exhausted their eligibility, but it's time for new players to step up.
Marquette was picked to finish fifth in the Big East's preseason poll. Senior guard Chase Ross is averaging 16.6 points with 4.0 rebounds and 3.3 assists this season after starting 34 games in 2024-25. His backcourt mates are freshman guard Nigel James Jr. (12.4 PPG and 3.8 APG) and junior guard Sean Jones (6.3 PPG). Sophomore forward Royce Parham (third-leading scorer and all-Big East freshman team last season) and 6-11 senior forward Ben Gold (8.9 PPG and 6.5 RPG) are also key contributors. Smart clearly liked his roster, opting to avoid the transfer portal despite losing three veteran scorers. While the starting rotation is solid, that decision has affected Marquette's depth, as several freshmen have significant roles, especially since junior guard Zaide Lowery's unexpected departure from the program. That's significant in Smart's fast-paced system.
Marquette Golden Eagles Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
UConn is healthy and ready to rock
UConn (13-1 SU, 6-8 ATS, and 5-9 O/U) walloped Xavier 90-67 on Wednesday, covering the spread as 11.5-point road favorites. The Huskies, who are 3-0 in Big East play, hit 53 percent of their field goals and 46 percent of their treys. They outrebounded the Musketeers (+16 margin) and assisted on 26 of their 33 made shots. Connecticut led by as many as 25 points and never trailed.
The Huskies were 24-11 last season, finishing third in the Big East with a 14-6 conference record. They sought to become the first college basketball team to win three straight national championships since UCLA won seven straight (1966–67 to 1972–73), but lost to eventual champion Florida in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. UConn is led by eighth-year head coach Dan Hurley, who has compiled a 178-70 record in Storrs.
The 2025-26 Huskies squad was picked to finish second behind St. John's in the Big East's preseason poll. They placed three players on the preseason All-Big East First Team: junior guard Solo Ball (15.5 PPG and 3.4 RPG this season), senior forward Alex Karaban (14.0 PPG and 5.4 RPG), and senior center Tarris Reed Jr. (14.0 PPG, 7.6 RPG, and 2.0 BPG). Retaining all three was significant, along with junior forward Jaylin Stewart (6.3 PPG). Hurley also strengthened the roster through the transfer portal and high school ranks. Silas Demary Jr. (8.7 PPG, 5.9 APG, and 4.6 RPG) was a significant addition, as the Georgia transfer fills a need at point guard. The 6-foot-5 junior has a desired blend of size, athleticism, and work ethic. Another Huskie to watch against Marquette is freshman guard Braylon Mullins (10.3 PPG), who was a five-star recruit.
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UConn Huskies Injury Report:
- F Jayden Ross (5.7 PPG) is questionable with a hamstring injury.
Marquette vs. UConn Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Marquette vs. UConn
- Huskies cover (4 Units)
UConn is building momentum. The Huskies have covered three straight games as double-digit favorites, winning by an average margin of 20 points per game. They are finally healthy after a string of injuries earlier in the season, and didn't look rusty on Wednesday after a ten-day break between games. They should cover the spread again on Sunday against a Marquette team that's inexperienced and lacks depth. The Golden Eagles are among the least profitable teams to back ATS this season (15.4% ATS win percentage), as they have struggled on the road (331st in Haslametrics' Away from Home metric) and against better competition (345th in Paper Tiger Factor). I wouldn't back them against an elite Connecticut team that's found its rhythm recently, especially with the intense and detail-oriented Hurley coaching them.
Over/Under Pick for Marquette vs. UConn
- Under (5 Units)
The under is 5-1 in the last six matchups between Marquette and Connecticut. The Golden Eagles scored 70 or fewer points in each game, averaging 63.6 points per game. The Huskies' defense will lock up the Golden Eagles once again on Sunday, especially around the rim. UConn leads the nation in average opponent near-proximity shooting percentage, while Marquette ranks 287th in near-proximity shooting percentage. The Golden Eagles won't hit many threes (319th in 3PT%), free throws (70.6% FT%), or capitalize on their limited second-chance scoring opportunities, either (319th in second-chance conversion percentage).
Marquette is a high-tempo team, but it will be grinded down by the much slower-paced Huskies (298th in schedule-adjusted tempo). UConn will dominate the first half and coast to a win in the second half, bringing the pace to a halt. They will separate enough early in the game to cover the spread, but it won't be enough to push the total over the number.
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