Memphis vs. Rice Pick and Prediction for Saturday January 3 2026
Use Code WWWC The Memphis Tigers travel to Houston to take on the Rice Owls in an American Athletic Conference clash at Tudor Fieldhouse on Saturday at 3:00 PM ET.
Memphis (6-7, 1-0 AAC) enters the game looking to build on a gritty 57-48 conference-opening win over North Texas. Rice (6-8, 0-1 AAC), meanwhile, is desperate to shake off a brutal 97-48 road loss to Tulsa and protect their home court, where they have played their best basketball this season. The Tigers are 8.5-point favorites, with the total set at 142.5. The college basketball season is getting interesting and that is why you should follow our free college basketball picks.
Tigers finding defensive identity
It has been an up-and-down season for Penny Hardaway’s Tigers, but they seem to be turning a corner defensively. In their New Year's Eve victory over North Texas, Memphis held the Mean Green to just 36.4% shooting and forced 18 turnovers. This defensive intensity has become their calling card as they look to crawl back toward a .500 record.
The offense is centered around star guard Dug McDaniel, who leads the team with 14.2 PPG and APG. McDaniel is the primary engine of the Tigers' transition game, and his ability to navigate pick-and-rolls will be vital against Rice's zone looks. Forward Zachary Davis has also emerged as a key contributor, providing length and scoring versatility (12 points in his last outing).
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One major roster note to watch: Memphis will likely be without Julius Thedford, who is sidelined with a knee injury. Additionally, guard Quante Berry is listed as questionable with a finger injury. These absences may thin out the Tigers' backcourt depth, putting more pressure on McDaniel to play heavy minutes.
Owls looking to defend Tudor Fieldhouse
Rice has been a tale of two teams this season: struggling on the road but dangerous at home, where they hold a 5-2 record. After a disheartening 49-point loss to Tulsa, head coach Rob Lanier will be looking for a massive response from his veteran squad in their conference home opener.
The Owls are led by guard Nick Anderson, who averages 13.9 PPG and is a sniper from the charity stripe at 91.8%. Rice’s success often hinges on their three-point shooting; they connect on 36.0% of their shots from deep as a team. If players like Trae Broadnax and Jalen Smith can find their rhythm early, the Owls have the firepower to turn this into a high-possession shootout.
Historically, Rice has struggled against Memphis, losing 11 of their 13 all-time meetings. However, the Owls have covered the spread in both meetings last season, suggesting they match up better with the Tigers' style than the straight-up record indicates.
Spread pick for Memphis vs. Rice
- Rice +8.5 (-112)
While Memphis is the more talented team on paper, an 8.5-point spread feels high for a Tigers team that has struggled with offensive consistency all year. Rice is a much better team at home and will be highly motivated to erase the memory of the Tulsa blowout. Given Memphis' injury concerns in the backcourt and the Owls' ability to shoot the three, expect Rice to keep this within a couple of possessions at Tudor Fieldhouse.
Total pick for Memphis vs. Rice
- Under 142.5 (-105)
Memphis has trended toward the Under in 19 of their last 35 games, and their recent 57-48 win over North Texas shows they are content to win in the mud. Rice is coming off a game where they failed to reach 50 points and will likely try to slow the pace to prevent Memphis from getting out in transition. This has the feel of a 68-62 type of game that stays well under the 142.5 total.
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