Mercyhurst vs Long Island Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday March 10 2026
Use Code WWWC An automatic NCAA Tournament bid is on the line Tuesday night in Brooklyn, and the gap between these two programs could not be more clearly defined by the numbers — a 23-10 Sharks team that went 13-1 at home this season against a Mercyhurst squad that needed a 56-51 semifinal grinder just to get here. If you have been locking in our college basketball picks all season, you know that a home conference favorite with a dominant regular-season record, a deeper individual production profile, and steadier late-season form is one of the most reliable betting profiles in a winner-take-all title game — and Long Island checks every one of those boxes heading into Tuesday night's NEC final.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Long Island -5.5
- Total Pick: Under 137.5
- Projected Final Score: Long Island 71, Mercyhurst 63
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mercyhurst | +6.5 (-110) | Over 138.5 (-115) |
| Long Island | -6.5 (-110) | Under 138.5 (-105) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mercyhurst | +5.5 (-110) | Over 136.5 (-115) |
| Long Island | -5.5 (-110) | Under 136.5 (-105) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Mercyhurst | Long Island | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | 09:57:34 AM | +5.5 (-110) | -5.5 (-110) | |
| 03/10 | 09:41:23 AM | +5.5 (-105) | -5.5 (-115) | |
| 03/10 | 08:02:09 AM | +6.5 (-115) | -6.5 (-105) | |
| 03/10 | 06:26:27 AM | +5.5 (-105) | -5.5 (-115) | |
| 03/10 | 01:27:55 AM | +6.5 (-112) | -6.5 (-108) | |
| 03/10 | 01:27:52 AM | +6.5 (-118) | -6.5 (-102) | |
| 03/10 | 01:15:08 AM | +5.5 (-105) | -5.5 (-115) | |
| 03/10 | 01:04:25 AM | +6.5 (-115) | -6.5 (-105) | |
| 03/09 | 07:24:18 PM | +6.5 (-110) | -6.5 (-110) | |
| 03/09 | 07:22:13 PM | +6.5 (-115) | -6.5 (-105) | |
| 03/09 | 05:26:19 PM | +5.5 (-108) | -5.5 (-112) | |
| 03/09 | 05:26:17 PM | +5.5 (-112) | -5.5 (-108) | |
| 03/09 | 05:18:39 PM | +5.5 (-105) | -5.5 (-115) | |
| 03/09 | 12:51:26 PM | +5.5 (-110) | -5.5 (-110) | |
| 03/09 | 12:45:39 PM | +6.5 (-110) | -6.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | 06:34:02 AM | 136.5 (-115) | 136.5 (-105) | |
| 03/10 | 06:33:33 AM | 137.5 (-105) | 137.5 (-115) | |
| 03/10 | 06:33:02 AM | 136.5 (-115) | 136.5 (-105) | |
| 03/10 | 06:33:00 AM | 137.5 (-105) | 137.5 (-115) | |
| 03/09 | 05:19:48 PM | 137.5 (-110) | 137.5 (-110) | |
| 03/09 | 05:19:36 PM | 138.5 (-108) | 138.5 (-112) | |
| 03/09 | 05:18:39 PM | 138.5 (-112) | 138.5 (-108) | |
| 03/09 | 02:45:02 PM | 138.5 (-105) | 138.5 (-115) | |
| 03/09 | 12:45:39 PM | 138.5 (-115) | 138.5 (-105) |
Mercyhurst vs Long Island Key Matchups and Handicap
Long Island
The Sharks have been the class of the Northeast Conference all season, and the numbers make that argument impossible to dismiss. LIU finished 23-10 overall and 15-3 in conference play, went 13-1 at home, and arrives at Tuesday night's NEC final having won eight of its last ten games with two tournament wins by scores of 79-75 and 64-56. That is a program operating at a level of consistency that separates it from every other team in this bracket, and the combination of home-court advantage, deeper individual production, and stable late-season form gives the Sharks the most complete profile in this matchup.
The offensive construction at LIU is built around a guard-centric system that generates scoring and defensive pressure simultaneously. Jamal Fuller leads the team at 16.6 points per game, giving the Sharks a reliable primary option who can create off the dribble and hit shots from multiple levels. Greg Gordon provides the defensive backbone with 5.6 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game — the kind of disruptive wing presence that forces opponents into tougher offensive possessions and creates transition opportunities. Malachi Davis runs the offense at 3.4 assists per game, ensuring the ball moves efficiently even when the primary scoring options are being accounted for. Shadrak Lasu gives Long Island 1.5 blocks per contest, anchoring a rim protection profile that becomes critical against a Mercyhurst team that wants to get into the paint and create second-chance opportunities through Qadir Martin.
As a team, the Sharks average 73.9 points per game and hold a plus-2.7 scoring margin — modest by national standards, but meaningful in an NEC environment where defensive competence is the primary separator. The January 8 win over Mercyhurst was decided by two points, which at first glance suggests a close matchup, but the February rematch — where the Lakers won 91-83 at home — is better explained by a Mercyhurst crowd and environment than by a genuine matchup reversal. On a neutral floor Tuesday night, LIU's edge in individual depth and roster stability should reassert itself over forty minutes.
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Mercyhurst
Mercyhurst has earned every bit of respect this tournament run has generated. The Lakers came in at 17-16 overall and 10-8 in conference play — a record that made them a long shot to reach this game — and have beaten those expectations with three straight wins, including a 70-61 quarterfinal performance and a 56-51 semifinal grind that showed the coaching staff's ability to execute a defensive game plan when the situation demands it. Head coach Gary Manchel has gotten maximum production from a roster that does not overflow with depth, and arriving in the NEC final as a 17-16 underdog with a chance at an automatic bid is a genuine achievement regardless of Tuesday night's outcome.
The offensive case for Mercyhurst starts and ends with Bernie Blunt III, who leads the Lakers at 17.3 points per game — a figure that actually edges Long Island's Fuller and gives the underdog a lead scorer capable of taking over a game if the defense cannot consistently contain him. When Blunt gets downhill and the Mercyhurst offense runs through his ability to create, the Lakers have the ceiling to make this game uncomfortably close for LIU backers in the first half. Qadir Martin provides the frontcourt muscle with 6.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game, making the Lakers competitive on the glass and giving them a genuine rim-protection anchor. Jake Lemelman organizes the half-court sets at 3.0 assists per game, and the team's 9.5 turnovers per game is one of the more disciplined ball-security numbers in the NEC — a detail that has kept Mercyhurst in games it had no business competing in throughout the tournament.
The primary concern for Mercyhurst entering Tuesday is the scoring gap. The Lakers average 69.3 points per game compared to LIU's 73.9, and in a title game where both defensive schemes are likely to be at their best, that four-plus-point gap in offensive output is difficult to overcome with execution alone. The Sharks are also more rested in a relative sense — their tournament wins have been larger and less taxing — while Mercyhurst just ground through a 56-51 semifinal that required every bit of effort the roster had.
Betting Trends – LIU and MERCH
- The spread has oscillated between LIU -5.5 and -6.5 throughout the tracking window, settling at -5.5 at current — a full point below the opening number — suggesting consistent Mercyhurst money pushing back against the larger spread and finding value on the underdog.
- The total has dropped two full points from 138.5 at open to 136.5 at current after bouncing through 137.5 multiple times, reflecting sustained under pressure across both the Sunday afternoon and Tuesday morning windows.
- Long Island is 23-10 overall and 15-3 in NEC play, with a 13-1 home record that represents one of the more dominant venue profiles among conference champions this season.
- Mercyhurst won the second regular-season meeting 91-83 on February 21 at home, but that result came on the Lakers' home floor and does not fully translate to a neutral-site championship game where LIU's roster depth becomes more relevant.
- LIU won eight of its last ten games entering the NEC final. Mercyhurst is 6-4 over the same stretch, including three straight tournament wins — a hot run that explains the underdog money pushing the spread down a full point.
- Mercyhurst averages only 9.5 turnovers per game, one of the more disciplined ball-security numbers in the conference, which is the primary reason the Lakers have been a live underdog throughout this tournament despite their 17-16 regular-season record.
Key Injuries and Notes – LIU and MERCH
- Long Island: No publicly reported injuries entering Tuesday's NEC final. Jamal Fuller, Greg Gordon, Malachi Davis, and Shadrak Lasu all appear available, giving the Sharks their complete rotation for the championship game.
- Mercyhurst: No publicly reported injuries entering Tuesday. Bernie Blunt III, Qadir Martin, and Jake Lemelman are all expected to be available, meaning the Lakers should have their full complement of rotation players for the final.
- The handicap is driven entirely by matchup quality, form, and venue rather than health — both rosters appear intact, which means the season-series context and scoring-efficiency gap are the most reliable predictors of Tuesday's outcome.
- The two regular-season meetings finished 60-58 (LIU win, January 8) and 91-83 (Mercyhurst win, February 21 at home), a combined result that reflects a real competitive matchup but also shows the home-court variable heavily influencing both outcomes — making the neutral-site final a genuine tossup on paper despite the spread.
ATS and Total Picks
- Against the Spread: Long Island -5.5. The spread has moved a full point in Mercyhurst's favor since open, dropping from -6.5 to -5.5 as underdog money found value on the Lakers' tournament form and disciplined ball security. At -5.5 on a home-court-dominant team with deeper individual production and a more stable recent record, the Sharks remain the correct side. A 71-63 finish covers comfortably and reflects the scoring-efficiency gap between these rosters when neither has a home-court lift behind them. The spread movement actually makes this a better number for LIU bettors than what was available at open.
- Total Pick: Under 136.5. The total has dropped two points from 138.5 and settled at 136.5 after persistent under pressure throughout the tracking window. Both programs have already played a two-point game in this series, Mercyhurst won their semifinal 56-51, and the Lakers' clearest path to keeping this game competitive is to slow the pace and make LIU execute in the half-court. A defensive, grind-style final that lands in the low 130s is the most likely outcome given both coaching staffs' tendencies in elimination games, and the under is the play the market has already been telling you to make since Sunday afternoon.
Final Score Prediction
Long Island 71, Mercyhurst 63. Fuller and the Sharks' guard depth provide consistent scoring throughout, Blunt keeps the Lakers within range in the first half, and LIU's rim protection through Lasu limits the Mercyhurst second-chance opportunities that have been critical to the underdog's tournament success. The Sharks pull away in the second half as the scoring gap asserts itself, the spread covers at -5.5, and the under hits as both programs grind through a defensive championship game that finishes well below 136.
How to Bet Long Island vs Mercyhurst
The spread has already moved a full point from LIU -6.5 at open to -5.5 at current, making Tuesday morning's number a better entry point for Sharks bettors than what was available when the line first posted. The total at 136.5 has dropped two full points from its opening number after sustained under pressure — the under at -105 represents clean value against a number that has been falling since Sunday and may move further before tip-off.
Bettors who want to play the NEC championship without financial risk should check out the best social sportsbooks currently available, several of which are running conference tournament promotions that let you sweat the LIU cover and the under without putting real money on the line.
New bettors ready to put real money on a home-dominant conference favorite with a clear efficiency edge should take a look at the current bet365 bonus code offer, which adds bankroll value on a night where Long Island's 13-1 home record and Mercyhurst's 56-51 semifinal grind are both pointing toward the same controlled, under-friendly outcome.
Mobile bettors looking for the fastest way to lock in the under before the number drops further should check out the latest fliff promo code, which gives new users a strong promotional entry point on an NEC final where two defensive-minded coaches, a two-point regular-season result, and a 56-51 semifinal make the lower end of the scoring range the most defensible play on the board.
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