Michigan State Spartans at ECU Pirates, Picks and Prediction, Tuesday Nov. 25, 2025
The No. 17 Michigan State Spartans (5-0) will take on the East Carolina Pirates (2-3) on Tuesday at the Fort Myers Tip-Off at 1 pm EST.
Michigan State is undefeated, coming off of dominant wins over Kentucky 83-66, and Detroit Mercy 84-56. East Carolina is on a two-game losing streak after falling to UNC Wilmington 85-60 and Charleston Southern 77-65.
On Thursday, Michigan State will face North Carolina, and ECU will play St. Bonaventure as this Fort Myers Tip-Off continues.
Make sure to read this in-depth East Carolina Pirates vs Michigan State Spartans prediction. Check out our top NCAAB picks for the rest of the slate as well.
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One of the worst shooting teams in America
East Carolina has gotten off to a mediocre start; they beat Georgia Southern 92-89 in the opener and then, after losing 87-72 to Richmond, barely got past Elizabeth City by just one point. That win is not overly impressive when considering Elizabeth City is a D-II school that went just 11-16 last season. The concerns of the lackluster win against Elizabeth City were valid, as the Pirates have since lost to UNC Wilmington 85-60 and Charleston Southern 77-65.
KenPom ranks ECU 244th overall, with the 284th-adjusted offense and 181st-rated defense. The Pirates also play at a solid pace, ranking 141st in adjusted tempo.
Depth has not been a strength for ECU after its top three players. Jordan Riley leads the Pirates with 18.5 points per game and is second with 6.0 rebounds. Giovanni Emejuru leads the team with 9.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game, while adding 17 ppg. Tybo Bailey is next, averaging 10.6 ppg but shooting below 38% from the field, and just 2.6 rebounds and 0.4 apg. As a team, ECU is averaging 72 ppg, shooting 41.5% from the floor and 20.8% from deep.
A tune-up for Sparty
The No. 17 Spartans are coming in with five wins to start the season, highlighted by their wins over Kentucky (#12 by KenPom) and Arkansas (#37 by KenPom). Michigan State is 18th in the KenPom ratings, ninth on defense, and 49th on offense. Last season, the Spartans went 30-7 and advanced to the Elite 8 before losing to Auburn 70-64.
Tom Izzo’s team is led by senior Jaxon Kohler (15.2 ppg, 9.8 rpg), who is in his fourth season with the Spartans and has seen a more expanded role after averaging 7.8 ppg and 7.5 rpg last season. Jeremy Fears, who is in his third season with the program, is one of the nation’s greatest playmakers, leading the country with 10.4 assists per game, a team-best 2.2 steals per game, and adding 11.8 ppg. As a team, Michigan State is averaging 79 ppg, shooting 45.4% from the floor and 29.4% from deep.
ECU vs Michigan State Predictions
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,778.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,716.00 |
| 3 |  David Hess | +1,326.00 |
| 4 |  Earle Sports Bets | +1,323.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +1,071.00 |
ECU vs Michigan State ATS Pick:
- Michigan State -23 (4 units)
This game will get ugly. East Carolina is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation, and Jordan Riley and Giovanni Emejuru will not be nearly enough for the Pirates to keep up. Michigan State looks like an elite-8 team again with talent back from last season, and one of the greatest coaches of all-time keeping them focused. On the other side, East Carolina is playing below its potential, and 0-4 ATS ths spread this season. I have to back Michigan State to cover.
ECU vs Michigan State Total Pick:
- Under 144.5 (4 units)
Michigan State is a defensive-first squad that has not allowed anyone to crack 70 points this season, and that’s after facing some legit fast-paced offensive teams. If the Spartans can make life tough for Arkansas, Colgate, and Kentucky, this matchup should be a nightmare for East Carolina. Michigan State sits 270th in adjusted tempo, so ECU isn’t getting out in transition, and in the half-court, it’s going to get ugly. ECU is shooting 313th from the field and 365th from three, and playing on a neutral floor will not help the shooting on either side. The Spartans have not been shooting the lights out themselves, and this game sets up for the under to cash.
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