Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers Picks and Prediction for Thursday, February 26 2026
Use Code WWWC A huge Big 10 matchup goes on Thursday night, featuring this Michigan State vs. Purdue prediction. Both teams are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament and are both 12-4 in the Big 10 to place tied for third with Nebraska (before Wednesday's results). This will be their first meeting of the season. Last year, Michigan State broke a five-game losing streak to the Bolermakers by defeating them, 75-66 at home last season. These teams meet from West Lafayette at 8 PM ET. Check out more free College Basketball predictions and NBA picks on Thursday at Winners and Whiners.
Sparty is always in the mix
Tom Izzo's teams usually go through slumps where you think his team is headed for a freefall. But it never happens. Izzo's squad lost at home to first-place Michigan by 12 on Jan. 30 and then fell at Minnesota by 3 as an 8.5-point favorite. The No. 13 Spartans bounced back with a win over Illinois, before getting blasted by Wisconsin by 21. In their last two games, they destroyed UCLA by 23 and on Sunday, beat Ohio State 66-60 at home, but didn't cover the 10.
This league is quite possibly the best it's been in years, ranking second behind the Big 12 with five teams in the top 12 of the NET Rankings, including a surprising Nebraska squad (11th). MSU is considered 12th, with a 6-5 record against Quad 1 teams and a 16-0 record against Q2 through 4 teams.
This game is a battle of great point guards. Sparty has Jeremy Fears Jr, who leads the team with 15 points per game and 9.2 assists, but is shooting just 43% from the field and 28.6% from three-point range. Jaxon Kohler (6-10, 245) is one of those Izzo-type of big men who love to play physical, adding 12.3 points and 9.3 rebounds. On KenPom, the Spartans are ranked 9th overall, 42nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 6th in Adjusted Defense.
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Purdue gets through rough stretch
Purdue doesn't have a 7-4 Zach Edey in the middle of a Glenn Robinson, who could score at will from anywhere on the floor. While they may lack superstars, they don't lack talent. This is a balanced team with a lot of scorers, who can hurt you from inside or out. Like Matt Painter's most recent teams, they also have a lot of size. Daniel Jacobsen (7-4, 250) isn't quite as big or as prolific as Edey, but he's a presence in the paint for 15.5 minutes per game, swatting 1.6 shots.
The Boilermakers overcame a brief slump in January, losing three straight games. They won their next four before losing at home to Michigan by 11 on Feb. 17. Last Friday, they crushed rival Indiana 93-64 as an 11.5-point favorite. Trey Kaufmann-Renn led Purdue with 20 points, adding five assists, while Fletcher Loyer and Omer Mayer added 18 points apiece.
Point guard Braden Smith leads the Boilermakers with 14.9 points and 8.7 assists, while shooting 41.2% from beyond the arc. Loyer is another marksman, who makes 40.2% of their three-point shots and is averaging 13.6 points per game. Purdue ranks 7th overall on KenPom, 2nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 23rd in Adjusted Defense. They also rank 13th in total rebounding percentage.
Spread Pick for Michigan State vs. Purdue
Michigan State vs. Purdue Prediction and Odds
- Michigan State +6.5 (5 units)
This is a high line against a Michigan State team that has covered three straight and six of the last seven in this series. Even though Purdue has won five of six in this series, four of the five wins came by six points or fewer. These are two big and physical teams, so there is no big advantage on the boards or in the paint. The Boilermakers are not great on the defensive end and that's where their weakness is. MSU is shooting 35.2% from beyond the arc. They are even better on the road at 36.7%, while Purdue allows teams to shoot 34.7% from 3-point range at home. Defensively, MSU ranks 16th in the nation in field goal defense (39.7%).
Over/Under Pick for Michigan State vs. Purdue
- Under 140.5 (4 units)
Both teams can shoot, but this is usually a rock fight. The last two meetings went under. When it comes to tempo, Purdue is as methodical as you can get, ranking 297th in Adjusted Tempo. Michigan State isn't that much faster at 266th in Adjusted Tempo. Michigan State is allowing just 66.1 points per game to rank 18th in the nation, while Purdue allows 70.9 points per game at home and 69.3 points per game overall to rank 57th.
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