Michigan State vs. Minnesota Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Michigan State Spartans (19-3) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (10-12)
The 2025-26 college basketball betting action continues with another loaded Wednesday slate, and in this preview, we are breaking down the Big Ten Conference showdown from Williams Arena in Minneapolis, MN, to get you the Michigan State vs. Minnesota prediction.
The Spartans meet the Golden Gophers for the first time this season, and Michigan State aims for its fourth consecutive SU and ATS victory over Minnesota. Last season, the Spartans trounced the Golden Gophers 73-51 as 14-point home favorites, and the game flew under the 140-point line.
Let’s take a closer look at this Michigan State vs. Minnesota prediction, one of our NCAAB picks for Wednesday’s card. The tip-off is set at 7:00 PM ET, and the Spartans open as 8.5-point road favorites with a total of 128.5 points.
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Michigan State hopes for a bounce-back performance
The Michigan State Spartans (19-3; 10-10-2 ATS; 7-15 O/U) put an end to their seven-game winning streak last Friday, suffering an 83-71 home defeat against then-No. 3 Michigan. The Spartans made just 36.7% of their field goals (4-for-23 from deep), and junior guard Jeremy Fears Jr. led the way with 31 points, seven assists, five rebounds, and four steals.
Now, Michigan State is 9-2 in conference play. During their seven-game win streak, the Spartans have gone 5-2 against the number, while the under has hit on six occasions. They are No. 10 in the AP Top 25 Poll and No. 11 in the NCAA NET Rankings.
The Spartans score 119.0 points per 100 possessions (49th in the country) and allow 91.7 points in return (2nd). They lead the nation in defensive rebound percentage (78.0%) and rank sixth in offensive rebound percentage (39.4%). Fears Jr. tallies 14.9 points and 8.8 assists per game, while senior forward Jaxon Kohler posts 13.1 points and 9.1 rebounds a night.
Minnesota is free-falling
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (10-12; 9-12-1 ATS; 9-13 O/U) extended their losing streak to seven games last Sunday, suffering a 77-75 defeat at Penn State. The Gophers erased a 10-point deficit from halftime, tying the game at 75-75 with 31 seconds remaining, but Kayden Mingo’s layup with one second left on the clock lifted Penn State over Minnesota.
The Golden Gophers made 52.9% of their field goals (7-for-27 from deep) last Sunday. Senior guard Langston Reynolds led the charge with 18 points, seven assists, and four rebounds. Now, Minnesota is 3-8 in conference play, and the Gophers have gone 2-4-1 against the spread during their losing streak.
Minnesota is No. 84 in the NCAA NET Rankings. The Gophers score 113.0 points per 100 possessions (105th in the country) and surrender 100.5 points in return (45th). Senior forward Cade Tyson averages 19.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, while junior forward Jaylen Crocker-Johnson tallies 13.4 points and 6.9 boards per game. 
Michigan State vs. Minnesota Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sean Higgs | +1,855.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,497.00 |
| 3 |  Ben Burns | +1,112.00 |
| 4 |  Ross Benjamin | +618.00 |
| 5 |  Bryan Power | +607.00 |
Spread Pick for Michigan State vs. Minnesota
- Michigan State -8.5 (5 units)
The Spartans are a deeper team than Minnesota. Also, they are a much better rebounding team than the Golden Gophers. The Spartans lean on their stout defense, and they have enough weapons to deal with Cade Tyson, who’s been terrific for Minnesota this season.
It looks like the Golden Gophers will need a great shooting night to upset the odds in this game. They are 51st in the country in 3-point rate (.456), but the Gophers make just 32.7% of their shots from deep (236th). The Spartans are 40th in opposing 3-point percentage (30.4%) and 26th in opposing 2-point percentage (46.5%).
Over/Under Pick for Michigan State vs. Minnesota
- Under 128.5 (5 units)
I noted how good the Spartans’ defense has been this season. Michigan State has allowed 66 or fewer points in seven of its last nine games overall. After a tough matchup against Michigan, I expect a bounce-back performance from Michigan State.
Both Michigan State and Minnesota play at a slow pace, so give me the under on the total. The Spartans register 65.5 possessions per 40 minutes (268th in the country), and the Golden Gophers record just 63.2 possessions per 40 minutes (349th). The over is 6-3 in Minnesota’s last nine games overall, but nine of the Gophers’ last 11 home contests have gone under the total.
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