Michigan State vs. Nebraska, Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Friday, January 2, 2026
The New Year is here, and we have Big 10 action led by this Michigan State vs. Nebraska prediction. No. 9 Michigan State (12-1) is 2-0 in the Big 10, while No. 13 Nebraska (13-0) is also 2-0. They'll meet on Friday night from Lincoln at 9pmET. These teams met once last season, with MSU winning 89-52 at home as a 7-point favorite. The odds in this game have Nebraska listed as the 1.5-point favorite, with the total set at 145.5. More free college basketball predictions and NFL picks are at Winners and Whiners.
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Another tough test for Sparty
Michigan State has won four straight games since losing to Duke 66-60 on December 6. The Spartans last played on Monday, beating Cornell 114-97 at home as a 24.5-point favorite. They won despite Cornell shooting 46% from the field, though MSU shot 55% and 46% (13-of-28) from long range. Jeremy Fears Jr. led Sparty with 21 points and 11 assists on 7-of-11 shooting, while Coen Carr added 19 points and six boards, but shot just 9-of-16 from the line. MSU shot just 29-of-43 (67%) from the free-throw line against the Big Red.
Free-throw shooting hasn't been a major concern for Tom Izzo's squad, which shoots 73.1% from the line. As usual, his team is dominant on the boards, ranking fourth in the nation in rebound rate. F Jaxon Kohler (6-10, 245) leads a balanced group in scoring with 13.7 points and in rebounding with 10.3 boards per contest, while shooting 53.2% from the field and 46.7% from long range. KenPom has the Spartans ranked 15th overall, 46th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 6th in Adjusted Defensive Rating.
Another home game for the Cornhuskers
One thing these two teams have in common is that they both have played just one true road contest. Welcome to high-major college basketball. That might hurt Nebraska in the long run, but they are 9-0 at home and did beat Illinois 83-80 on Dec. 13 in their lone road game. They've pretty much dominated their competition in most games, covering three of their last five, but are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit favorite.
They were a 31.5-point favorite in their last game on Dec. 30 against New Hampshire (UNH), winning 86-55. Pryce Sandfort led the Huskers with 19 points with seven boards, while Braden Frager added 13 in 22 minutes. The Huskers shot 46% from the field, but just 22% (5 of 23) from long range.
Nebraska is ranked 23rd on KenPom, 37th in Adjusted Offense and 28th in Adjusted Defense. Sandfort and Rienk Mast both leads the Huskers with 16.5 points per game. They rank 14th in the nation in field goal defense (37.6%) and 47th in three-point defense (29.7%). Connor Essegian (10.4ppg last year, 5.4ppg this season) has played in just seven games due to an ankle injury.
Spread Pick, Line Movement and Prediction for Michigan State vs. Nebraska
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The Insiders Room | +1,793.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +1,731.00 |
| 3 |  Jesse Schule | +1,599.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,284.00 |
| 5 |  David Delano | +1,232.00 |
Michigan State vs. Nebraska Pick and Odds
- Michigan State +2.5 (4 units)
Izzo doesn't rely on many transfers and mid-semester players to help his team. His squad plays a tough schedule (56th), while Nebraska (206th) isn't quite as battle-tested. Nebraska is also 109th in rebound rate, which is not bad for a normal team, but MSU is fourth. That also could be a problem when they get deeper into Big 10 competition. Sparty is the tougher team in the paint. Expect more of a rock fight with MSU coming out on top.
Totals pick for Michigan State vs. Nebraska
- Under
Michigan State is consistent when it comes to tempo. They rank 255th in Adjusted Tempo, while Nebraska ranks 165th. Both teams are very strong defensively, while neither squad is great at three-point shooting, with neither team ranked in the top 60. Nebraska has played two straight unders and four of its last six.
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