Michigan State vs. Penn State Preview, Picks and Prediction, Saturday, December 13, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Saturday, the Penn State Nittany Lions will host the Michigan State Spartans at Bryce Jordan Center, and we have you ready to go with our Michigan State vs. Penn State prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from State College, PA, is at noon ET.
The Spartans beat the Nittany Lions 90-85 in their lone matchup last season, with Penn State covering as 11.5-point spread 'dogs. MSU is 8-2 straight-up (6-4 ATS) in its last ten meetings with PSU, and leads the all-time series 44-10. If you want the Michigan State vs. Penn State prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
Spartans have already faced four ranked teams
Michigan State (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS, and 2-7 O/U) dropped its first game of the season last Saturday, as Duke escaped East Lansing with a 66-60 victory. It was close throughout, with neither team leading by more than six points, but the Blue Devils made the winning plays down the stretch. MSU shot 32 percent, and Duke shot 38 percent overall, and neither team had an advantage on the glass. While Sparty didn't pick up a signature win, it showed it can go toe-to-toe with a national championship contender.
The Spartans (1-0 in conference play) were picked to finish sixth in the media's Big Ten preseason poll. Head coach Tom Izzo is in his 31st season at Michigan State, where he has compiled a 745-303 record. Izzo's 2024-25 team returns several key contributors, but must also replace its top three scorers, guards Jaden Akins, Jase Richardson, and Tre Holloman. MSU scores 86.3 points per game (106th) on 45.5 percent shooting (108th), including 33.7 percent from deep (181st). Defensively, they give up 68.6 points per game (62nd) on 38.0 percent shooting (23rd), including 28.6 percent from long range (40th).
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Michigan State is an intriguing team. Junior forward Coen Carr (11.1 PPG and 5.0 RPG) has all-world athleticism and is ready to step into a leadership role. The Spartans' frontcourt is experienced and deep. Senior forward Jaxon Kohler (14.2 PPG and 9.6 RPG) and senior center Carson Cooper (10.3 PPG and 7.0 RPG) are tough to move and have enough shooting touch around the rim to keep defenses in check. True freshman forward Cam Ward, a top-60 recruit, has flashed potential, and true frosh wing Jordan Scott is a long, confident player who projects to be a two-way star in the next few seasons. Redshirt sophomore point guard Jeremy Fears (11.6 PPG and 9.8 APG) is the Spartans' engine. He can be a Mateen Cleaves-type player and embodies the "Spartan Dawg" mentality. Michigan State needs a complementary scoring guard to emerge between senior Trey Fort (5.3 PPG on 31.5% shooting) and sophomore Kur Teng (5.4 PPG on 37.7% shooting), but both have struggled to find the bottom of the net.
Michigan State Spartans Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
Penn State must win inside to have a shot against Michigan State
Penn State (8-2 SU, 3-7 ATS, and 5-5 O/U) lost its first Big Ten game earlier this week, falling 113-72 to Indiana in Bloomington. The Hoosiers dominated from the opening tip, outscoring the Nittany Lions 58-26 in the first half alone. IU shot 69 percent from the field, hit 17 three-balls, and led by as many as 49 points. It was a humbling outcome for Penn State, which started the season 8-1, but all eight wins came against Quad 4 opponents.
PSU (0-1 in conference play) was picked to finish 18th (last) in the Big Ten's preseason media poll. The Nittany Lions are coached by Mike Rhoades, who is in his third season in Happy Valley (40-33 record). He previously coached VCU to three NCAA tourney appearances in his six seasons there. Penn State scores 82.0 points per game (71st) on 50.3 percent shooting (29th), including 37.0 percent from deep (56th). Defensively, they give up 74.3 points per game (169th) on 47.6 percent shooting (337th), including 35.4 percent from long range (294th).
The Nittany Lions dealt with significant roster turnover this past offseason, as only three players returned from last season’s roster. While several players transferred out of University Park, PSU also lost Puff Johnson, D’Marco Dunn, Nick Kern, Zach Hicks, and Ace Baldwin Jr. to graduation and Yanic Konan Niederhauser to the NBA draft. Freshman point guard Kayden Mingo paces Penn State in scoring, averaging 15.4 points with 4.0 dimes and 2.1 steals. He's joined in the backcourt by junior guard Freddie Dilione V (13.3 PPG), a former Tennessee transfer who started 28 games for the Lions last season. A few other Penn State players to watch against Michigan State are freshman guard Melih Tunca (12.8 PPG and 3.5 APG with a 45.8% 3PT%), senior forward Josh Reed (10.0 PPG and 3.9 RPG), and 7-foot freshman forward Ivan Juric (9.7 PPG and 4.0 RPG with a 66.7% FG%).
Penn State Nittany Lions Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
Michigan State vs. Penn State Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Michigan State vs. Penn State
- Spartans -12.5 (5 Units)
I'm betting on MSU to cover the large spread in Saturday's road game versus PSU. The Nittany Lions were exposed by Indiana, as they were propped up by one of the nation's weakest schedules. On the other hand, Michigan State just played Duke and beat three other ranked squads previously. MSU's loss to Duke is bad news for Penn State, as Izzo will have his team even more locked in than usual, which has been profitable for Sparty bettors. Since 2021, Michigan State has a 71.4% ATS winning percentage after a loss, the highest mark in the nation.
This matchup suits the Spartans well, as they prefer to attack the basket in the halfcourt to score buckets in the paint. They rank in the top 50 nationally in near-proximity shooting percentage and rank 44th in shot proximity distance against the average opponent. The Nittany Lions, meanwhile, rank 316th in two-point defense and 324th in near-proximity shot defense. Kohler and Cooper will go to work against PSU's big men, dominating on the boards for extra scoring opportunities (13th in offensive rebounding percentage, 22nd in second-chance conversion percentage, and 38th in free-throw attempt rate).
Penn State is among the least experienced college basketball teams in the country, ranking 344th in average years of D-1 experience. It's likely to be a bottom-feeder in the Big Ten again, while Michigan State has surprised some people and looks like a good bet to be a top-three team in the conference. The Duke loss was disappointing, but it won't hang over the Spartans, and with Toledo up next, they won't be caught looking ahead to their next opponent, either. MSU will lock up PSU's three-point shooters on defense and will be eager to get back on track offensively, generating too many second-chance buckets for the Nittany Lions to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Michigan State vs. Penn State
- Under 144.5 (4 Units)
The Spartans will get out to a comfortable lead, but I doubt they reach the 85-point mark in this game. Izzo's teams don't run up the score, and after a brutal start to the non-conference portion of their schedule, the upcoming stretch (Toledo, Oakland, and Cornell) provides an opportunity to coast. With a sizable lead in the second half, they'll slow down the pace to their liking, which is among the slowest in the country (313th in schedule-adjusted tempo, per KenPom). Penn State (200th in tempo) won't speed them up much, especially given Michigan State's significant rebounding advantage.
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