Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday February 25 2026
Use Code WWWC Mississippi State vs Alabama picks take center stage Wednesday night as the Crimson Tide look to keep rolling at home. If you are searching for sharp college basketball picks, this SEC matchup offers a clear contrast in pace and scoring style.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Alabama -13.5
- Total Pick: Under 175.5
- Projected Final Score: Alabama 94, Mississippi State 76
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Market | Mississippi State | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +15.5 (-110) | -15.5 (-110) |
| Market | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 170.5 (-110) | 170.5 (-110) |
Current Odds
| Market | Mississippi State | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +13.5 (-102) | -13.5 (-120) |
| Market | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Total (175.5) | 175.5 (-110) | 175.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Mississippi State | Alabama | Public |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/25 | 08:45:49AM | +13.5 (-102) | -13.5 (-120) | ALA 63%, ALA 60% |
| 02/25 | 05:02:49AM | +14.5 (-110) | -14.5 (-110) | MSST 96%, MSST 67% |
| 02/24 | 08:13:42PM | +15.5 (-110) | -15.5 (-110) | |
| 02/24 | 02:51:35PM | +15.5 (-110) | -15.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/24 | 04:57:08PM | 175.5 (-110) | 175.5 (-110) |
| 02/24 | 04:56:33PM | 174.5 (-115) | 174.5 (-105) |
| 02/24 | 03:46:49PM | 173.5 (-110) | 173.5 (-110) |
| 02/24 | 02:51:35PM | 170.5 (-110) | 170.5 (-110) |
Alabama
Alabama comes in on a six-game winning streak and is scoring 92.6 points per game, which leads the nation. The Tide want to run. They pressure, push the ball, and look for quick scoring chances.
In the last meeting on Jan. 13, Alabama won 97-82. Labaron Philon scored 32 points in that game. If Philon is fully healthy, he gives Alabama a downhill scorer who can break open stretches in a hurry.
The Tide have outscored opponents by 8.7 points per game this season. At home, they often control tempo and build leads quickly.
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Mississippi State
Mississippi State is 13-14 overall and 5-9 in SEC play. The Bulldogs average 78.3 points per game and rely heavily on guard Josh Hubbard, who is scoring 21.3 points per game.
Hubbard had 23 points in the last meeting with Alabama, but the Bulldogs still lost by 15. If the game speeds up, that favors Alabama.
Jayden Epps is working back from a knee injury. His availability matters because he provides secondary scoring and ball handling.
Mississippi State vs Alabama Key Matchups and Handicap
This game is about pace. Alabama wants a track meet. Mississippi State needs to keep it controlled.
The spread has moved from Alabama -15.5 down to -13.5. That tells me early money grabbed the big number. Now the line sits closer to where I project it.
The total has climbed from 170.5 to 175.5. That is a big move. While Alabama scores at a high rate, this number assumes near-perfect tempo and efficiency.
I see value on the home side and on the under. Alabama is the better team and at home they should control the game. Still, 175.5 is a very high total, and if Mississippi State slows the pace even slightly, it becomes harder to reach that number.
Betting Trends - MSST and ALA
- Alabama has won six straight games.
- The last meeting finished 97-82.
- The spread moved from -15.5 to -13.5.
- The total moved from 170.5 to 175.5.
Key Injuries and Notes - MSST and ALA
- ALA: Labaron Philon is questionable with a thigh and groin issue.
- MSST: Jayden Epps is working back from a knee injury.
- Alabama averages 92.6 points per game.
- Mississippi State averages 78.3 points per game.
ATS and Total Picks
- ATS Pick: Alabama -13.5
- Total Pick: Under 175.5
Final Score Prediction
I expect Alabama to control tempo and pull away in the second half, but not push this game into a full shootout.
- Projected Final Score: Alabama 94, Mississippi State 76
How to Bet
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