Missouri vs. LSU Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday, January 17, 2026
Use Code WWWC On Saturday, the Missouri Tigers will play the LSU Tigers in an SEC basketball battle, and we have you ready to go with our Missouri vs. LSU prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Baton Rouge, LA, is at 3:30 p.m. ET.
LSU is a 3.5-point spread favorite, and the game total is 153.5 points scored.
These SEC squads played once last season, a game Mizzou won 83-67 as seven-point spread favorites. LSU is 7-3 straight-up (4-5-1 ATS) in its last ten matchups with Missouri. If you want the Missouri vs. LSU prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
Missouri has excelled defensively in SEC play
Missouri (13-4 SU, 8-9 ATS, and 7-10 O/U) beat Auburn 84-74 earlier this week as 1.5-point 'dogs. Mizzou, which is in a five-way tie for first place in the SEC, shot 56 percent from the floor in the win, knocking down 47 percent of its threes. It was a close battle on the boards and in the paint, but Auburn was too inefficient (41 percent FG% and 29 percent 3PT%) to pull off the road win.
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
Mizzou was picked to finish seventh in the SEC's preseason media poll. They are led by fourth-year coach Dennis Gates, who has a 67-49 record with two March Madness trips under his belt. The Tigers score 81.8 points per game (135th) on 51.6 percent shooting (12th), including 36.6 percent from deep (55th). Defensively, they give up 71.8 points per game (98th) on 41.7 percent shooting (81st), including 36.0 percent from long range (321st).
The 2025-26 Missouri squad is led by senior guard Mark Mitchell, who averages 17.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.4 dimes per game. He shoots 56.5 percent from the field. A few other Tigers to watch against LSU are senior guard Jayden Stone (14.7 PPG and 5.0 RPG), senior guard Jacob Crews (12.1 PPG and 4.4 RPG), and junior guard Anthony Robinson II (10.6 PPG and 4.1 APG). KenPom ranks Mizzou 54th nationally, including 48th in offensive efficiency rating and 87th in defensive efficiency rating.
Missouri Tigers Basketball Injury Report:
- Senior forward Jevon Porter (6.2 PPG and 4.0 RPG) is questionable (lower leg injury). He last played on December 14.
LSU is coming off a heartbreaking home loss
LSU (13-4 SU, 8-9 ATS, and 7-10 O/U) has lost its first four conference games, falling to last place in the SEC basketball standings. The Tigers were beaten at the buzzer by Kentucky on Wednesday night, as the Wildcats stormed back from an 18-point second-half deficit. LSU led for nearly 90 percent of the game and never trailed by more than one point, but its defense collapsed down the stretch.
LSU was picked to finish 15th in the SEC's preseason media poll. They are led by fourth-year coach Matt McMahon, who has compiled a 56-56 record (14-43 in SEC play) in Baton Rouge. The Tigers score 90.3 points per game (21st) on 49.9 percent shooting (21st), including 34.1 percent from deep (186th). Defensively, they allow 77.3 points per game (223rd) on 41.2 percent shooting (60th), including 34.3 percent from long range (238th).
The Tigers are led by junior guard Dedan Thomas Jr., who averages 16.2 points and 7.1 assists per game. He last played on December 29. A few other LSU players to watch on Saturday against Mizzou are senior guard Max Mackinnon (14.5 PPG and 42.7 percent 3PT%), junior forward Mike Nwoko (14.4 PPG on 67.4 percent shooting and 5.8 RPG), and senior forward Marquel Sutton (13.1 PPG and 8.6 RPG). KenPom ranks LSU 46th nationally, including 42nd in offensive efficiency rating and 76th in defensive efficiency rating.
LSU Tigers Basketball Injury Report:
- Thomas Jr. (lower leg injury) is questionable to play vs. Missouri.
Missouri vs. LSU Pick and Preview
Moneyline Pick for Missouri vs. LSU
- Mizzou ML (5 Units)
I believe Missouri will win straight-up as 3.5-point underdogs on Saturday. LSU has lost a couple of heartbreakers recently and is in desperate need of a win after an 0-4 start to SEC play has McMahon firmly on the hot seat, which makes them a dangerous team at home. That said, Missouri has a couple of advantages it should be able to rely on to at least cover the spread.
Firstly, the visitors have excelled defensively since the return of Stone and Trent Pierce, as Mizzou's opponents have shot just 44 percent in the last four games. They have been especially stout inside the arc (47 percent opponent 2PT%), which has put pressure on their opponents to knock down perimeter shots. That's a concern for LSU, which shoots just 34 percent from long range and ranks 255th in three-point attempt rate. Secondly, the home team has been careless with the basketball recently (16.8 percent TO%), allowing their opponents an average of 15 points per game off those mistakes. Mizzou (61st in quick points off breakaway steals vs the average opponent) can take advantage.
Over/Under Pick for Missouri vs. LSU
- Under 153.5 (4 Units)
Betting Trends: The under is a combined 20-14 in these teams' games this season, including 7-3 in LSU's last ten and 6-4 in Missouri's L10.
I expect Saturday's game to be a battle inside the arc, leading to periods of stagnant scoring action. Missouri has turned it up a notch defensively in SEC play and has been tough to score against around the rim all season. The home team ranks 18th in opponent near-proximity shot attempt rate and 44th in average opponent near-proximity shooting percentage. LSU also excels defensively in the paint, ranking 11th in average opponent near-proximity shooting percentage. Neither team attempts a lot of threes and can't be counted on to shoot a high percentage from the perimeter. It would also surprise me if either team makes a lot of free throws, as Mizzou shoots just 66 percent at the foul line and doesn't foul its opponents much on defense.
Betting on College Basketball?
- Join Winners and Whiners premium for free and get a free $30 coupon with code FREE30
- Get started and wager on college hoops today with our favorite online sportsbooks
- Claim a CBB betting bonus offer with the best sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
