Mount St. Mary's vs Siena Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday March 7 2026
Use Code WWWC Atlantic City's MAAC Tournament quarterfinals have produced some genuinely surprising results over the years, and Saturday's late game between Mount St. Mary's and Siena has the ingredients to be the most competitive handicap on the evening slate — a No. 3 seed dealing with significant roster depletion squaring off against a No. 6 seed that has been playing its best basketball since January. The injuries on Siena's side are real, the Mount's momentum is real, and the total has held steady near the 131.5 mark throughout all three market entries. If your Saturday night card needs a well-grounded MAAC bracket angle, the sharpest college basketball picks on the board include Mount St. Mary's vs. Siena — a late-evening matchup where personnel depth, turnover margin, and defensive execution will determine which team advances to the semifinals.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Siena -3.5 (-110)
- Total Pick: Under 131.5 (-110)
- Projected Final Score: Siena 67, Mount St. Mary's 61
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mount St. Mary's | +3.5 (-115) | Over 131.5 (-108) |
| Siena | -3.5 (-105) | Under 131.5 (-112) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mount St. Mary's | +3.5 (-110) | Over 131.5 (-110) |
| Siena | -3.5 (-110) | Under 131.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Mount St. Mary's | Siena | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06 | 7:23:10 PM | +3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-110) | |
| 03/06 | 6:20:32 PM | +3.5 (-115) | -3.5 (-105) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | 7:23:38 AM | 131.5 (-110) | 131.5 (-110) | |
| 03/06 | 11:17:58 PM | 131.5 (-112) | 131.5 (-108) | |
| 03/06 | 6:20:32 PM | 131.5 (-108) | 131.5 (-112) |
Mount St. Mary's vs Siena Key Matchups and Handicap
Siena
The Saints enter Saturday's MAAC quarterfinal as the No. 3 seed at 20-11 overall and 13-7 in conference play, and the full-season statistical profile still makes a strong case for Siena as the rightful favorite despite a significant roster situation that must be factored into the handicap. The Saints average 70.8 points per game while allowing 66.5 — a plus-4.3 scoring differential that reflects genuine two-way competence — and they shoot 46.2% from the floor while committing just 10.3 turnovers per game. That ball security rate is the most important comparative statistic in this matchup, because it stands in direct contrast to Mount St. Mary's 15.4 turnovers per game, and in a low-total, half-court tournament game, the team that limits live-ball mistakes almost always has a structural edge in the final margin.
The individual talent edge resides with Siena as well. Gavin Doty is the best player on the floor Saturday night at 17.5 points and 7.0 rebounds per game — a versatile two-way contributor who can score from multiple spots and anchors the rebounding as Siena's primary frontcourt presence. Justice Shoats adds 12.9 points and 4.4 assists as the primary backcourt creator and table-setter, giving the Saints a guard capable of generating offense through the half-court when possessions tighten. Francis Folefac contributes 11.2 points and 5.0 rebounds as a third reliable option. The caveat to all of this is the roster depletion: Antonio Chandler has been ruled ineligible for the MAAC Tournament, and Siena is operating with only eight scholarship players after Tasman Goodrick, Reid Ducharme, Owen Schlager, and Tajae Jones are also unavailable. That thinned rotation reduces the Saints' frontcourt depth and margin for error, particularly in the second half of a physical, low-possession game where fresh legs matter.
Mount St. Mary's
The Mountaineers arrive at the MAAC Tournament carrying the best form of any team in the bottom half of the bracket. After a difficult mid-season stretch that dragged their overall record to 15-16, Mount St. Mary's has won five of their last six games and nine of their last thirteen, including a dominant 69-47 road win over Fairfield in the regular-season finale that showed this team is capable of its best defensive performances at the most important time of year. That trajectory is the primary reason the Mountaineers are worth considering as a short underdog despite the season-series deficit.
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The offensive identity is balanced across four contributors averaging between 9.4 and 12.2 points per game. Arlandus Keyes leads the attack at 12.2 points per contest, Luke McEldon adds 11.5 points and 6.1 rebounds as the primary interior threat, Trey Deveaux contributes 11.3 points per game, and Xavier Lipscomb rounds out the core with 9.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists as the primary facilitator. The Mount also owns a solid plus-3.6 rebounding margin that gives them a structural advantage on the glass against a Siena frontcourt that is now thinner than it was in the January head-to-head. The major concern entering this tournament game is turnovers — 15.4 per game is a rate that creates consistent Siena scoring opportunities in transition, and against a Saints backcourt built around efficiency and ball security, those extra possessions could prove decisive in a game where the margin of victory is projected to be six points or fewer.
Betting Trends – MSM and SIE
- The spread juice has shifted from Siena -105 at opening to -110 current, while Mount St. Mary's moved from -115 to -110 — a normalization to flat even money that reflects balanced action arriving on both sides since the line posted.
- The total has held at 131.5 throughout all three entries but the juice has oscillated between over-friendly and under-friendly across the three snapshots, suggesting active two-way action on the total without a clear directional movement.
- Siena won the only regular-season meeting 67-50 on January 11, controlling the game defensively and limiting Mount St. Mary's guards in a result that is still the most relevant single data point in the handicap.
- Mount St. Mary's has won five of its last six games and nine of its last thirteen, providing the strongest late-season momentum of any team in the MAAC bracket's lower half.
- Siena commits just 10.3 turnovers per game compared to Mount St. Mary's 15.4 — a plus-5.1 differential that creates a consistent possession advantage in a game with a modest 131.5 total.
- Antonio Chandler (7.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg) has been ruled ineligible for the MAAC Tournament, and Siena is limited to eight scholarship players after four additional absences — the most impactful roster situation on Saturday's MAAC quarterfinal slate.
- The Saints' 46.2% field-goal mark and plus-2.3 rebounding margin are both better than Mount St. Mary's comparable figures, reflecting a full-season edge that persists despite the current depth limitations.
Key Injuries and Notes – MSM and SIE
- Antonio Chandler (Siena) – Ineligible for MAAC Tournament: Chandler averaged 7.3 points and 5.6 rebounds per game and served as a key frontcourt contributor for the Saints. His ineligibility removes a primary rebounding and interior scoring option from the rotation at the worst possible time.
- Tasman Goodrick (Siena) – Unavailable: Goodrick's absence further reduces Siena's available rotation, limiting the Saints to eight scholarship players entering the quarterfinal.
- Reid Ducharme (Siena) – Unavailable: Another depth piece unavailable for the tournament, compounding the frontcourt limitations left by Chandler's ineligibility.
- Owen Schlager (Siena) – Unavailable: Schlager's absence adds to Siena's depth concerns heading into what could become a physically demanding game if Mount St. Mary's forces the pace or applies pressure in the second half.
- Tajae Jones (Siena) – Unavailable: Jones' unavailability leaves the Saints with a significantly reduced rotation compared to their regular-season numbers, with Gavin Doty carrying a heavier burden as a result.
- Mount St. Mary's – No Major Reported Injuries: The Mountaineers' core rotation of Arlandus Keyes, Luke McEldon, Trey Deveaux, and Xavier Lipscomb is intact, giving the Mount a depth advantage over a depleted Siena roster for the first time this season.
ATS and Total Picks
- ATS Pick: Siena -3.5 (-110). Despite the personnel losses, the Saints' backcourt creation, ball security, and the head-to-head win over Mount St. Mary's all support laying the modest number. Doty remains fully available and is the best player on the floor by a meaningful margin, Shoats gives Siena the most reliable guard-level creation in this matchup, and the Saints' 10.3 turnovers per game versus the Mount's 15.4 creates a structural possession edge that should show up in the final margin of a low-total game. The spread has settled at flat -110 after normalizing from opening, offering fair value on the better full-season team.
- Total Pick: Under 131.5 (-110). Both teams are built around half-court execution rather than up-tempo scoring, Siena's defense has held opponents to 66.5 points per game all season, and Mount St. Mary's has won recently by defending — the 69-47 Fairfield rout being the most recent example. A six-point projected margin in a game between two sub-75-point offenses on a modest total is structurally sound, and the projected final of Siena 67, Mount St. Mary's 61 totals 128 combined points, well under the current number.
Final Score Prediction
Siena 67, Mount St. Mary's 61. Doty controls the frontcourt despite the depleted rotation around him, Shoats generates enough half-court creation to maintain a steady scoring lead, and the Mount's turnover rate provides Siena with enough extra possessions to protect the spread in the final minutes. Siena advances to the MAAC semifinals and the game finishes well under 131.5.
How to Bet Mount St. Mary's vs. Siena
With the spread normalized to flat -110 on both sides and the total oscillating between over and under-friendly juice without establishing a clear directional signal, this is a game where the matchup analysis rather than the line movement drives the betting case. Shopping juice before Saturday's 8:30 p.m. ET tip in Atlantic City is still worthwhile — even a few cents of difference on the spread adds up across a full tournament slate. For bettors in states without legal sports wagering who want to follow the MAAC bracket, our guide to social sportsbooks covers the top free-to-play and sweepstakes platforms available in every state.
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