Nevada vs. Fresno State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, January 3, 2026
Use Code WWWC Nevada Wolf Pack (10-3) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-7)
The college hoops betting action goes on Saturday, January 3, 2026, with the Nevada Wolf Pack taking on the Fresno State Bulldogs in the Mountain West Conference showdown at Save Mart Center in Fresno, CA, and we’ve got you covered with our Nevada vs. Fresno State prediction.
Nevada meets Fresno State for the first time this season, and the Wolf Pack aim for their eighth consecutive victory over the Bulldogs. The tip-off is set at 7:00 PM ET, so let’s take a closer look at this Nevada vs. Fresno State prediction, one of our NCAAB picks for Saturday’s card.
Nevada shoots for its seventh straight W
The Nevada Wolf Pack (10-3; 6-6-1 ATS; 8-5 O/U) have been unstoppable lately and are rolling on a six-game winning streak. After finishing their non-conference schedule with a four-game win streak, the Wolf Pack started conference play with an 81-66 home victory on December 20.
Last Tuesday, Nevada advanced to 2-0 in conference play, beating Colorado State 75-62 as a 1.5-point road underdog. The Wolf Pack held the Rams to 37.2% shooting from the field (6-for-24 from deep) while making 42.3% of their field goals (8-for-22 from deep).
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Junior guard Tyler Rolison dropped 21 points on Colorado State, while fellow junior G Chuck Bailey had 15 points. Senior G Tayshawn Comer scored just two points last Tuesday, and Comer tallies 15.0 per game this season. Fellow senior G Corey Camper (15.9 PPG) missed his fourth straight game and is questionable for Saturday’s clash against Fresno State.
Nevada scores 117.2 points per 100 possessions (60th in the nation) and allows 104.2 points in return (97th). The Wolf Pack rank sixth in the nation in free-throw rate (.493) and 49th in 3-point percentage (37.2%).
Fresno State looks to break out of its funk
The Fresno State Bulldogs (6-7; 7-5 ATS; 5-7 O/U) have struggled a lot lately and are winless in five straight outings. After three non-conference losses versus Cal State Bakersfield 76-71, Arkansas 82-58, and Cal State Northridge 89-87, the Bulldogs have dropped a couple of MWC games against UNLV 84-72 and Utah State 72-63.
Last Tuesday, the Bulldogs covered a 14.5-point spread at home, but they trailed Utah State all night. Fresno State made just 34.5% of its field goals (5-for-22 from downtown) while posting an ugly 8/18 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Senior guard Jake Heidbreder dropped 21 points on Utah State, while freshman center Wilson Jacques double-doubled with 15 points and 12 rebounds. Heidbreder tallies 18.5 points per game, Jacques adds 8.4 points and 8.0 boards a night, and junior G Zaon Collins averages 13.9 points and 5.0 assists.
Fresno State scores 104.2 points per 100 possessions (241st in the nation) and surrenders 105.7 points in return (125th). The Bulldogs make just 31.3% of their shots from deep (264th), but their defense ranks 41st in 3-point percentage (29.8%).
Nevada vs. Fresno State Pick
Spread Pick for Nevada vs. Fresno State
- Nevada (4 units)
The Bulldogs love to play aggressive defense. They are 25th in the nation in defensive turnover percentage (21.2%). However, Nevada takes excellent care of the ball. The Wolf Pack turn the ball over on 13.1% of their possessions (3rd in the nation).
Fresno State defends the 3-point line at a high level, but the Bulldogs’ interior defense has been awful thus far. They are 329th in opposing 2-point percentage. The Wolf Pack will attack the paint all night, looking to get to the free-throw line as much as possible. They don’t lean on 3-pointers a lot despite their strong 3-point percentage.
Hereof, I’m going with Nevada, looking for its offense to make a difference. The Wolf Pack are not a great defensive team by any stretch of the imagination, but they possess more depth than the Bulldogs, whose offense leaves a lot to be desired. Nevada is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Fresno State.
Over/Under Pick for Nevada vs. Fresno State
- Over (4 units)
As I noted, the Wolf Pack rarely turn the ball over. They don’t play at a fast pace (67.3 possessions per 40 minutes), but the Wolf Pack won’t hesitate to speed things up in this game. The Bulldogs are turnover-prone, and they struggle to keep their rivals off the rim.
Fresno State registers 69.8 possessions per 40 minutes (153rd in the nation). The Bulldogs have allowed 76 or more points in four of their previous five outings. The Wolf Pack have scored at least 75 in six straight outings, and they’ve taken 65 free throws over their last two games.
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