New Mexico Lobos vs Air Force Falcons Pick and Prediction for Saturday January 10 2026
The New Mexico Lobos travel to Clune Arena to face the Air Force Falcons on Saturday, January 10, 2026, at 3:00 PM EST. New Mexico enters as a heavy favorite according to ESPN Analytics, which gives the Lobos a 94.7% chance of victory as they look to keep pace at the top of the Mountain West standings. For expert analysis and daily wagering insights on the full slate of college basketball action, be sure to check out the latest free college basketball picks over at Winners and Whiners.
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New Mexico Lobos: High-Octane Offense
The Lobos (12-3, 3-1 MW) come into this matchup following an 80-70 road victory over Colorado State. New Mexico features one of the most balanced offenses in the conference, averaging 79.7 points per game. Their efficiency is a hallmark, shooting 45% from the floor while maintaining a stout defense that allows only 67.5 points per game.
The roster is managing several injury-related absences. Kallai Patton and Sir Marius Jones are both out for the season as they have elected to redshirt. Additionally, Timeo Pons and Kevin Patton Jr. are listed as questionable for Saturday's contest. Despite these depth concerns, the team remains highly productive, averaging 36.7 rebounds and 7.4 steals per game, which allows them to dictate the tempo of play.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The Insiders Room | +1,793.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +1,731.00 |
| 3 |  Jesse Schule | +1,599.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,284.00 |
| 5 |  David Delano | +1,232.00 |
Air Force Falcons: Looking for Conference Spark
The Falcons (3-12, 0-4 MW) are struggling to find their footing in Mountain West play, most recently dropping a 99-62 decision to Utah State. Air Force averages 62.9 points per game while surrendering 74.9 points on the defensive end. A primary challenge for the Falcons has been on the boards, where they are being out-rebounded by an average margin of six per game compared to New Mexico.
The Falcons' injury report includes Chris Catchings, who is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury and has yet to appear this season. On a positive note, players who were previously listed as questionable, including A.J. Patterson and Kolby Gilles, were cleared for the team's recent stretch. Air Force will need to significantly improve their defensive discipline to slow down a New Mexico squad that moves the ball well (14.4 assists per game).
New Mexico Lobos vs. Air Force Falcons Prediction
The statistical gap between these two programs is significant. New Mexico’s ability to force turnovers and control the glass should create plenty of second-chance opportunities and transition points.
New Mexico vs. Air Force ATS Pick
- Pick: New Mexico Lobos -16.5
The Lobos have shown they can handle the unique environment of Clune Arena, and their superior athleticism should be the deciding factor. Air Force has struggled against high-pressure defenses this season, and with the Lobos averaging over seven steals per game, the Falcons may find it difficult to settle into their offensive sets. Expect New Mexico to pull away early and cover the large spread.
New Mexico vs. Air Force Total Pick
- Pick: Over 142.5
While Air Force plays at a slower pace, New Mexico’s offensive efficiency and the Falcons' defensive struggles (allowing nearly 75 PPG) suggest a higher-scoring affair. If the Lobos can hit their season average of 79 points, and the Falcons manage to capitalize on home-court comfort for 65+ points, the total should comfortably clear the 142.5 mark.
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