New Mexico Lobos vs New Mexico State Aggies Prediction and Picks - November 15, 2025
Use Code WWWC Saturday evening on the college hardwood, and we have a New Mexico vs New Mexico State prediction ready to rock and roll. New Mexico comes into this contest at 3-0 on the year and they are off an 82-68 home win over UC Riverside. New Mexico State checks in off a 74-58 home win over New Mexico Highlands to improve to 2-0 on the young season. These teams met last year and New Mexico won that game at home by a score of 89-83 in OT. Can the Aggies get revenge for that loss? Read on to see our New Mexico vs New Mexico State prediction.
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Lobos Take Down Riverside
The Lobos enter this rivalry clash at 3–0 after an 82–68 win over UC Riverside on November 11. Chris Howell led the way with 15 points and five assists, while Antonio Chol and Jake Hall each added 14. Tomislav Buljan was a force on the glass, pulling down 10 rebounds, and Kevin Patton Jr. chipped in with timely buckets to help New Mexico pull away late. It was another example of how balanced this new-look roster can be under first-year head coach Eric Olen, who has quickly instilled a system that emphasizes ball movement and defensive toughness.
Offensively, New Mexico has shown the ability to spread the floor and knock down shots from deep, hitting 14-of-27 threes against Riverside. Chol and Hall provided perimeter scoring, while Howell’s steady playmaking kept the offense organized. The Lobos also showed resilience, responding to multiple Riverside runs with decisive stretches of their own, including a 14–0 burst midway through the second half that sealed the game. That kind of composure will be critical in a rivalry setting where momentum swings can be sharp and unforgiving.
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Defensively, the Lobos have been opportunistic, forcing turnovers and limiting opponents’ efficiency inside. Buljan’s presence in the paint has given them a reliable rebounder and rim protector, while Howell and Miller have been active in disrupting passing lanes. Against New Mexico State, the Lobos will need to stay disciplined, as the Aggies thrive on physicality and second-chance points. If New Mexico can control the boards and keep their perimeter shooting consistent, they’ll have a strong chance to extend their unbeaten start in one of the most heated rivalries in college basketball.
Aggies Off To A 2-0 Start
The Aggies come in at 2–0 after a 74–58 win over New Mexico Highlands on November 11. Robert Dix led the way with 12 points and six rebounds, while Marcus Pierce added 12 points and six assists. The Aggies showed balance across their lineup, with multiple players contributing despite some sloppy stretches that included 21 turnovers. Still, their defensive pressure and rebounding edge allowed them to control the game, and they’ll look to carry that same energy into this rivalry matchup at the Pan American Center.
Offensively, New Mexico State has relied on steady guard play and inside scoring to set the tone. Pierce has been a reliable facilitator, while Dix has provided a scoring punch both inside and out. Bench contributions have been mixed, but players like Ibrahim Sacko and Luke Morris have chipped in with rebounding and hustle plays. The Aggies will need sharper execution against the Lobos, as turnovers could prove costly against a team that thrives in transition.
Defensively, the Aggies have leaned on their physicality, forcing Highlands into 21 fouls and limiting them to 42% shooting. Their ability to contest shots and battle on the boards has been a strength, with Julius Mims expected to return after missing time with a concussion. His presence would give New Mexico State another weapon in the paint, both defensively and offensively. Against the Lobos, the Aggies will need to stay aggressive without losing discipline, as foul trouble could swing momentum quickly. If they can control tempo and keep New Mexico from finding rhythm beyond the arc, the Aggies have the tools to make this rivalry game a grind.
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Pick
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Spread Pick
- New Mexico -3.5 (2 Units)
New Mexico -3.5 looks like the right side in this rivalry because the Lobos have been sharper on both ends of the floor to start the season. Their balanced scoring attack, highlighted by Chris Howell’s steady playmaking and Antonio Chol’s perimeter shooting, has given them multiple ways to generate offense. In their recent win over UC Riverside, they knocked down 14 threes and showed the kind of composure needed to handle momentum swings. That ability to respond quickly and keep control of the game is a major edge against a New Mexico State team that has struggled with turnovers and hasn’t faced the same level of competition.
The Lobos also bring a defensive presence that should make life difficult for the Aggies. Tomislav Buljan has been strong on the glass, and the team as a whole has limited opponents’ efficiency inside while forcing mistakes on the perimeter. New Mexico State has leaned on physicality, but foul trouble and sloppy possessions have been recurring issues. On a neutral number like -3.5, the Lobos’ ability to stretch the floor offensively and control the boards defensively makes them the more reliable side. In a rivalry game where execution matters, New Mexico’s depth and discipline give them the edge to cover.
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Over/Under Pick
- Under 139.5 (3 Units)
The Under 139.5 feels like the right angle in this rivalry because both New Mexico and New Mexico State lean on defense and physicality more than pace. The Lobos showed against UC Riverside that they can grind opponents down with rebounding and half-court execution, while the Aggies just held New Mexico Highlands to 58 points despite their own offensive struggles. With both teams emphasizing toughness inside and neither built to push tempo for 40 minutes, this matchup sets up as a slower, grind-it-out battle where points will be earned, not given, making the Under a smart play.
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