New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, February 14, 2026
Use Code WWWC New Mexico State Aggies (11-13) vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (13-11)
The 2025-26 college basketball season continues with another exciting Saturday slate, and in this preview, we are breaking down the Conference USA showdown from Pete Mathews Coliseum in Jacksonville, FL, to get you the New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State prediction.
The Aggies meet the Gamecocks for the first time this season. They split a two-game set last season, with each team emerging victorious away from home. The Gamecocks beat the Aggies 65-59, and New Mexico State responded with a 61-52 victory.
Read more about this New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville prediction, and check out all our NCAAB picks for Saturday’s card. The tip-off at Pete Mathews Coliseum is set at 5:00 PM ET.
New Mexico State looks to snap its two-game skid
The New Mexico State Aggies (11-13; 10-11 ATS; 12-9 O/U) have struggled of late, losing six of their previous seven games overall (2-5 ATS). After stopping their four-game slide with a 72-63 victory over Louisiana Tech, the Aggies dropped consecutive games against UTEP 91-88 in overtime and Liberty 77-75.
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Last Wednesday, the Aggies battled bravely against the Conference USA-leading Liberty. New Mexico State shot 47.6% from the field (8-for-27 from deep) while going 7-for-7 from the foul line. The Aggies outscored Liberty 40-30 in the paint, but the Flames escaped with a win thanks to Zac Cleveland’s jumper with one second left on the clock.
Senior guard Jemel Jones scored 23 points against Liberty, while senior forward Julius Mims double-doubled with 21 points and 13 rebounds. Jones leads the way for the Aggies with 17.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game, and Mims adds 11.0 points and 8.7 rebounds a night.
New Mexico State is 4-10 in conference play and No. 185 in the NCAA NET Rankings. The Aggies score 110.5 points per 100 possessions (130th in the country) and allow 111.3 points in return (241st). They have the worst defensive rating in conference play, yielding 113.2 points per 100 possessions.
Jacksonville State hopes to get back on track
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks (13-11; 8-11-1 ATS; 11-9 O/U) have gone 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in their last seven games overall. They are coming off Wednesday’s 69-64 defeat to UTEP. After consecutive wins at Western Kentucky 71-66 and Kennesaw State 77-58, the Gamecocks failed to beat the Miners as 6.5-point home favorites.
Jacksonville State made 49.0% of its field goals (8-for-18 from deep) last Wednesday. However, the Gamecocks missed six of their 14 shots from the foul line and allowed 11 triples. Senior guard AC Bryant led the way for Jacksonville State with 17 points and four rebounds, while fellow senior guard Mostapha El Moutaouakkil accounted for 16 points and five boards.
El Moutaouakki has done a great job this season, averaging 18.3 points and 7.3 rebounds. Bryant tallies 12.7 points and 4.4 rebounds per game, while freshman guard JaCoby Hill posts 9.0 points and 3.5 rebounds a night.
Jacksonville State is 8-5 in conference play and No. 208 in the NCAA NET Rankings. The Gamecocks score 105.7 points per 100 possessions (224th in the country) and surrender 107.0 points in return (144th). They allow 106.0 points per 100 possessions in conference play (1st in the Conference USA).
New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Pick
Spread Pick for New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State
- Jacksonville State (4 units)
The Gamecocks’ defense leads the Conference USA in 3-point percentage (31.4%). On the other side of the ball, the Gamecocks make 36.8% of their shots from deep in conference play (36.8%), so it’s no surprise they are tied with Sam Houston for the second spot.
The Aggies are arguably a more dangerous offensive team than Jacksonville State, but their defense has been pretty bad this season. New Mexico State is 287th in the country in defensive turnover percentage (15.2%), and that number fell to 14.0% in league play.
There’s one more reason why I like the Gamecocks in this game. They lead the Conference USA in free-throw rate (.508), while the Aggies are 10th in defensive free-throw rate (.435).
Over/Under Pick for New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State
- Under (4 units)
Both teams prefer to play at a slow pace. New Mexico State tallies 66.5 possessions per 40 minutes (235th in the country), and Jacksonville State records just 64.5 possessions per 40 minutes (324th). Hereof, I will take the under, though I’m a bit worried about the Aggies’ defense.
At least, the Gamecocks have done a great defensive job in conference play. They certainly have weapons to contain the Aggies’ offense. The under is 6-2 in Jacksonville State’s last eight games overall, and it is 6-0 in the Gamecocks’ last six outings at home. Four of New Mexico State’s last six contests overall have gone under, too.
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