New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee Picks and Prediction for Saturday, February 28, 2026
Use Code WWWC New Mexico State Aggies (13-14) vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (14-14)
The college basketball betting action continues Saturday, February 28, 2026, with the New Mexico State Aggies squaring off against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in the Conference USA clash at Murphy Center in Murfreesboro, TN, and we’ve got you covered with our New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction.
The Aggies take on the Blue Raiders for the second time this season. On January 10, Middle Tennessee outlasted New Mexico 59-55 as a 3.5-point road underdog, and the game flew under the 144.5-point line.
Let’s look closer at this New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction, one of our NCAAB picks for Saturday’s slate. The tip-off at Murphy Center is set at 1:00 PM ET.
New Mexico State’s iffy form continues
The New Mexico State Aggies (13-14; 11-13 ATS; 14-10 O/U) have gone 3-3 SU and ATS over their last six games overall. They just missed a chance to extend their winning streak to three games. After consecutive victories over Jacksonville State 79-70 and UTEP 67-63, the Aggies suffered a 93-70 defeat at Western Kentucky this past Thursday.
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The Aggies trailed the Hilltoppers by 22 points at halftime. New Mexico State shot just 32.8% from the field (5-for-30 from deep) and missed nine of its 34 attempts from the foul line. Senior forward Julius Mims posted a double-double of 13 points and 10 rebounds, while sophomore forward Jae’Coby Osborne had 12 points and nine boards.
Senior guard Jemel Jones leads the way for the Aggies with 16.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game. Mims tallies 10.9 points and 8.9 rebounds per contest, while senior guard Elijah Elliott averages 9.0 points, 2.5 assists, and 2.0 boards.
New Mexico State is 6-11 in conference play and No. 186 in the NCAA NET Rankings. The Aggies score 110.5 points per 100 possessions (151st in the country) while surrendering 112.5 points in return (246th). They are 323rd in defensive turnover percentage (14.4%) and 336th in defensive free-throw rate (.436).
Middle Tennessee eyes its third straight W
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (14-14; 11-14 ATS; 13-12 O/U) have gone 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and are looking for their third victory in a row. After a 78-66 win to Delaware, the Blue Raiders beat UTEP 77-67 as 8.5-point home favorites this past Thursday.
Senior guard Kamari Lands dropped 22 points on UTEP, while sophomore forward Torey Alston posted a 15-point, 11-rebound double-double. The Blue Raiders outrebounded the Miners 35-24 and shot 44.8% from the field (8-for-24 from downtown).
Lands tallies 13.9 points and 3.7 rebounds per game. Alston adds 13.3 points and 7.8 rebounds a night, while sophomore guard Jahvin Carter averages 10.0 points, 3.5 assists, and 3.3 rebounds. Senior guard Sean Smith posts 9.6 points and 3.5 dishes per game.
Middle Tennessee is 8-9 in conference play and 157 in the NCAA NET Rankings. The Blue Raiders score 110.7 points per 100 possessions (145th in the country) while yielding 109.1 points in return (171st). They rank 291st in defensive turnover percentage (15.0%) and 235th in defensive free-throw rate (.372).
New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee Pick
Spread Pick for New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee
- Middle Tennessee (4 units)
The Blue Raiders overcame a 16-point deficit in that 59-55 road win over the Aggies in January. Middle Tennessee held New Mexico State to 34.6% shooting from the field (6-for-25 from deep) while making 40.0% of its field goals (4-for-19 from deep). The Blue Raiders outscored the Aggies 28-16 in the paint.
Middle Tennessee is arguably a better defensive team than New Mexico State, so I will take the Blue Raiders, who lead conference play in defensive rebound percentage (73.8%). The Aggies can score, but their defense has struggled during conference play, allowing 113.4 points per 100 possessions (11th in the Conference USA).
Over/Under Pick for New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee
- Over (4 units)
Although New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee combined for just 114 points in their first meeting this season, I will take the over in this game. The Aggies’ offense has improved lately, but their defense has been pretty bad. The over is 4-1 in the Aggies’ last five games overall and 8-3 in their previous 11 outings on the road.
The Blue Raiders will find a way to take advantage of New Mexico State’s defensive flaws. The over is 6-1 in the Blue Raiders’ last seven contests overall and 5-1 in their past six showings at home. Middle Tennessee has scored 77 or more points in six of its previous seven outings at any location.
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