New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky Picks and Prediction for Thursday, February 26 2026
Use Code WWWC Conference USA action on Thursday night in this New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky prediction. New Mexico State (13-13, 6-10 CUSA) is near the bottom of the league, while Western Kentucky (16-11, 9-7 CUSA) is in third place by a game over three teams. These teams met on January 8, with the Aggies winning 80-64 as a 2.5-point favorite. These teams will meet again on Thursday night at 7:30pmET from Bowling Green, Kentucky. Don't miss this game and our other free College Basketball predictions along with NBA picks at Winners and Whiners.
Aggies are playing better down the stretch
New Mexico State has had a rough season, but they're playing better as of late, winning two straight including a 67-63 win over UTEP last Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite. Jemel Jones led the Aggies with 21 points, while shooting 8 of 14 from the field. New Mexico State shot just 41% from the field, but they held the Miners to 40% shooting and 30% (8-of-27) from 3-point range.
The Aggies are led by Jones, a 6-4 transfer guard from Cal State Bakersfield, who averages 17.1 points, 4.0 rebounds and 2.5 assists, while shooting 39.4% from three-point range. This is a solid defensive team, ranking 31st in field goal defense (40.7%) and 45th in three-point defense (30.9%). According to KenPom, New Mexico State ranks 171st overall, 142nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 219th in Adjusted Defense. They also rank 116th in total rebounding percentage.
Roller-coaster of a season for Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky is not used to being at the bottom or near the bottom of whatever conference they've been in. But when they lost four straight and five of six games from Jan. 17-Feb. 5, this looked like a cellar-dwelling team. However, things turned around after the losing streak when they beat FIU, Middle Tennessee State, Delaware (ot) and shocked first-place Liberty 94-73 on Saturday on the road as a 7.5-point underdog.
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In their win over Liberty, Teagan Moore and Grant Newell scored 21 points apiece to lead the Hilltoppers in a rout. They shot 53% from the field and 48% (10-of-21) from beyond the arc. That victory by Western Kentucky snapped a 17-game winning streak for the Flames. Moore (6-5, 220) leads the Hilltoppers with 18.3 points and 5.7 rebounds, while shooting 51.5% from the field and 40.7% from the three-point line.
Western Kentucky ranks 159th overall on KenPom, while ranking 194th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 134th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They do a decent job on the glass, ranking 139th nationally in total rebounding percentage.
Spread Picks and Prediction for New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky
New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky Prediction and Odds
- New Mexico State +5.5 (4 units)
It really doesn't matter that Western Kentucky is playing well. These are still college kids and they will have a letdown after an excellent win over Liberty on Saturday. No doubt caught the attention of the Aggies, who have won two straight games. This is not that bad of a team despite their record. Their defense is very sound and for some reason, they shoot the ball much better on the road, (45% FG/38.3% 3pt) than they do at home. Western Kentucky's three-point defense (34.2%) is average at best, and New Mexico State will take advantage just as they did in the first meeting when they won by 16. Take the points.
Over/Under Pick for New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky
- Under 151.5 (4 units)
The first meeting went well under the total. New Mexico State has gone under in five of their last eight games. Western Kentucky has gone under in seven of their last 10 games. At home, Western Kentucky is holding opponents to just 74.4 points per game. Western Kentucky wants to push the ball, but the Aggies are more methodical at 227th in Adjusted Tempo.
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