NIT Semifinal New Mexico vs Tulsa Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday April 2 2026
Use Code WWWC History, style, and a genuine shootout setup collide in Indianapolis Thursday night when two of the most offensively gifted teams left in the NIT meet in a semifinal that could be one of the most entertaining games of the entire college basketball postseason — and if you have been locked into our college basketball picks all week, you already know that when two teams combining for 167 points per game meet with a total sitting in the low 160s, the Over is not just a lean, it is a mandate. Tulsa is chasing its third NIT title. New Mexico is trying to validate a breakthrough first year under a new staff. Both rosters can flat-out score, neither has shown any interest in slowing the pace, and the line movement tells you exactly where the smart money has been flowing since this number opened. Strap in.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Tulsa +3.5
- Total Pick: Over 161.5
- Projected Final Score: New Mexico 86, Tulsa 84
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Date | Time | Tulsa | New Mexico | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/25 | 10:36:38PM | -3½-110 | 3½-110 | — |
Current Odds
| Date | Time | Tulsa | New Mexico | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01 | 10:31:21AM | 3½-104 | -3½-118 | TLSA 85%, TLSA 55% |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Tulsa | New Mexico | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/25 | 10:36:38PM | -3½-110 | 3½-110 | — |
| 03/25 | 10:37:53PM | -2½-110 | 2½-110 | — |
| 03/25 | 10:38:07PM | -1½-120 | 1½-102 | — |
| 03/25 | 10:39:32PM | -½-118 | ½-104 | — |
| 03/25 | 10:40:03PM | 1½-118 | -1½-104 | — |
| 03/25 | 10:40:15PM | 2½-120 | -2½-102 | — |
| 03/25 | 10:40:31PM | 3½-120 | -3½-102 | — |
| 03/25 | 10:40:47PM | — | — | — |
| 03/25 | 10:44:25PM | 3½-110 | -3½-110 | — |
| 03/26 | 10:59:36PM | 4½-120 | -4½-102 | TLSA 100%, TLSA 100% |
| 04/01 | 10:31:21AM | 3½-104 | -3½-118 | TLSA 85%, TLSA 55% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/25 | 10:36:38PM | 160½-110 | 160½-110 | — |
| 03/25 | 10:40:47PM | — | — | — |
| 03/25 | 10:44:25PM | 160½-110 | 160½-110 | — |
| 03/29 | 04:15:30PM | 160½-115 | 160½-105 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 04/01 | 09:23:59AM | 161½-110 | 161½-110 | UN 98%, UN 80% |
New Mexico vs Tulsa Key Matchups and Handicap
Tulsa Offensive Identity
The Golden Hurricane are not just a good offensive team — they are a historically constructed one for this level of competition. Scoring 85.4 points per game and ranking 15th nationally in that category, Tulsa has eclipsed the 80-point mark on 25 separate occasions this season and won 24 of those games. That is not a coincidence; it is a blueprint. When head coach Eric Konkol's portal-rebuilt roster gets into rhythm from three-point range, opposing defenses simply do not have an answer, and the numbers back it up. The team hit 38.4 percent from beyond the arc this season, ranking 12th nationally, with all five starters shooting close to or above 40 percent from deep.
The most important development entering Thursday is the return of David Green. The ex-Rhode Island forward and Tulsa's leading scorer at 15.7 points per game had been dealing with a shoulder injury before coming back to active duty in the quarterfinal win over Wichita State. Green's presence completes what was already the American Athletic Conference's best starting lineup, a unit that posted a plus-172 rating on the season and ranked among the top five-man lineups in the country. With Green healthy and Miles Barnstable and Ade Popoola extending the floor at 41.1 and 41.2 percent from three respectively, the Golden Hurricane's offensive ceiling is as high as any remaining team in this tournament.
New Mexico's Firepower
The Lobos have been every bit as explosive on their side of the ledger, averaging 81 points per game under first-year head coach Eric Olen and arriving in Indianapolis having dismantled three tournament opponents at The Pit by an average margin of better than 21 points. That kind of margin in NIT play reflects a team that has not just been winning at home — it has been imposing its will offensively and defensively in a way that suggests genuine tournament-caliber quality rather than a soft draw.
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The player who has changed everything for UNM this season is freshman guard Jake Hall. Averaging 16.3 points per game while shooting 45.1 percent from three-point range, Hall ranks fifth nationally in three-point accuracy and gives the Lobos a shot creator who can single-handedly swing possessions in either team's favor on any given night. Croatian forward Tomislav Buljan provides a dangerous secondary option, having scored 22 or more points in four of the Lobos' last eight games and giving New Mexico a physical mismatch presence inside that complements Hall's perimeter game.
TLSA Spread Movement and Line Context
The spread movement in this game is one of the more dramatic examples of a market repricing in real time that you will find on this slate. The number opened with Tulsa as a 3.5-point favorite, rapidly compressed through pick-em territory, flipped to New Mexico as a 3.5-point favorite, then briefly stretched to 4.5 before settling back at New Mexico -3.5 at current. The round-trip nature of that movement — from Tulsa -3.5 to New Mexico -3.5 within the same evening — reflects genuine disagreement in the market about which side has the structural edge when both teams are this closely matched offensively.
Public money is heavily on Tulsa at 85 percent of dollars and 55 percent of tickets at the most recent snapshot, yet the line sits at New Mexico -3.5. That divergence between public lean and current number is one of the cleaner indicators available that the market is not simply following the crowd here, and bettors should factor that context into their decision about which side to take at the current number.
UNM Road Adjustment and Styles
One of the most relevant unanswered questions entering Thursday is how each team handles playing away from home for the first time in the tournament. Both Tulsa and New Mexico have played exclusively at home up to this point in the NIT, which means Indianapolis represents new territory for both rosters. The slight edge in this department may belong to New Mexico, whose regular-season schedule featured more quality opposition than Tulsa's American Athletic Conference slate — the Mountain West gauntlet prepared the Lobos for a broader range of opponents and environments than the Golden Hurricane faced in their conference play.
Style-wise, there is no indication either team has any interest in slowing down. Both coaching staffs have built their identities around pace, perimeter shooting, and offensive volume. The total opened at 160.5 and has climbed to 161.5 at the current number, which is consistent with the market's recognition that two teams combining for 167 points per game are unlikely to suddenly discover a defensive identity they have not shown all season. The Under briefly attracted 100 percent of both money and tickets at one snapshot before the market rebalanced, and the current split of 98 percent Under money and 80 percent Under tickets at the latest update suggests the sharp money has been on the Under while the public has followed — a dynamic worth monitoring but not one that overrides the style matchup case for the Over.
Betting Trends – TLSA and UNM
- Tulsa is scoring 85.4 points per game this season, ranking 15th nationally, and has won 24 of the 25 games in which the Golden Hurricane have reached the 80-point mark.
- New Mexico has averaged 81 points per game under first-year head coach Eric Olen and has outscored three NIT opponents by an average of 21-plus points at home in the Albuquerque bracket.
- The Golden Hurricane have gone Over the total in 20 of their last 28 games, one of the stronger recent Over trends among teams still active in the postseason.
- The Lobos have gone Over the total in 15 of their last 22 games, confirming that both teams in this matchup have been trending heavily toward high-scoring outcomes throughout the second half of the season.
- The spread opened at Tulsa -3.5, flipped to New Mexico -3.5 within the same evening session, and has remained on UNM throughout the movement window — a full seven-point shift from the initial opening price.
- Tulsa is drawing 85 percent of spread dollars and 55 percent of spread tickets despite being the underdog at +3.5, indicating significant public confidence in the Golden Hurricane to cover despite the market pricing New Mexico as the favorite.
- The total has climbed from 160.5 at open to 161.5 at the current number, with the Under attracting heavy sharp attention at 98 percent of the money and 80 percent of the tickets at the most recent public data update.
- Both teams are playing road games for the first time in this NIT, having won all bracket games at home — an adjustment factor that could affect tempo and shooting efficiency in the early minutes.
Key Injuries and Notes – TLSA and UNM
- David Green (TLSA – F): Returned from a shoulder injury to play in the quarterfinal win over Wichita State, scoring and contributing as Tulsa's leading scorer at 15.7 points per game. His full availability for Thursday is the most important roster development for the Golden Hurricane heading into the semifinal.
- Miles Barnstable (TLSA – G): Expected to start and shoot from three-point range at 41.1 percent, giving Tulsa a reliable perimeter threat alongside the returning Green.
- Ade Popoola (TLSA – G): The junior college addition has been a consistent three-point contributor at 41.2 percent from deep and is expected to play a significant role in Tulsa's offensive execution against New Mexico's defense.
- Jake Hall (UNM – G): Healthy and available, the freshman standout averaging 16.3 points per game and shooting 45.1 percent from three is New Mexico's most dangerous individual offensive weapon entering Thursday.
- Tomislav Buljan (UNM – F): The Croatian forward has scored 22 or more points in four of the Lobos' last eight games and enters Thursday in the best form of any Lobo not named Hall. His interior presence gives UNM a dimension Tulsa will need to account for defensively.
- NIT semifinal note: Both teams have played all tournament games at home through the quarterfinals. Thursday marks the first true road or neutral-site environment for both rosters in this event, which introduces an adjustment variable for each coaching staff to manage.
New Mexico vs Tulsa ATS and Total Picks
The spread play is Tulsa +3.5. The Golden Hurricane have David Green back, shoot the ball at an elite level from three, and bring the most explosive starting lineup in the American Athletic Conference into a game where the market has already shown it is not convinced New Mexico deserves to be a 3.5-point favorite. Public money is backing Tulsa at 85 percent of dollars, and while that alone is not a reason to take a side, the combination of Green's return, Tulsa's offensive ceiling, and a number that moved dramatically before settling suggests this spread has been priced for a New Mexico team that plays at a higher level than the Lobos have consistently shown against quality competition away from The Pit.
The total play is Over 161.5. Two teams combining for 167 points per game, both trending heavily Over in recent games, both built around perimeter shooting and pace, playing in a neutral-site semifinal with nothing to play for except a trip to the NIT championship game — there is no structural reason to expect a sudden defensive awakening from either side. The Under attracted heavy sharp attention at an earlier number, but the total has since climbed to 161.5 and the style matchup has not changed. Over 161.5 in a projected 86-84 final fits both teams' season-long offensive profiles.
Final Score Prediction
New Mexico 86, Tulsa 84. Jake Hall and Tomislav Buljan generate enough offense to hold off a Tulsa push, but David Green and the Golden Hurricane's perimeter shooting keep this game within possession range throughout the second half. The final lands over 161.5 and Tulsa covers the +3.5 in a game that lives up to every expectation of a high-scoring, back-and-forth NIT semifinal. Neither team pulls away cleanly — this one gets decided in the final two minutes.
How to Bet the Golden Hurricane vs Lobos
NIT semifinal games with clear Over angles and a spread that has taken a dramatic round trip through the movement window are exactly the kind of spots where platform selection and line shopping can add measurable value to your bottom line. Here is how to approach Thursday's Tulsa-New Mexico matchup from a betting execution standpoint.
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The picks are set: Tulsa +3.5 on the spread, Over 161.5 on the total, and a projected 86-82 New Mexico win that delivers exactly the kind of edge-of-your-seat semifinal both rosters are capable of producing.
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