North Carolina vs. SMU Pick and Prediction for Saturday January 3 2026
The new year opens with a high-stakes ACC battle as the No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels travel to Dallas to face the SMU Mustangs at Moody Coliseum on Saturday at 2:15 PM ET.
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North Carolina (13-1, 1-0 ACC) is riding a seven-game win streak and looks to cement its status as a conference frontrunner. SMU (11-2, 0-0 ACC), playing its first-ever ACC home game, boasts an undefeated 9-0 record at Moody Coliseum this season and features one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Despite the rankings, ESPN Analytics gives SMU a 54.7% win probability, while the odds favor UNC as a narrow 1.5-point favorite. Be ready for all the college basketball action with our free college basketball picks.
Tar Heels leaning on freshman star Caleb Wilson
North Carolina enters the contest with significant momentum following a dominant 79-66 win over Florida State. The story of the season has been five-star freshman Caleb Wilson, who is putting up historic numbers. Wilson leads the team in points (19.8 PPG), rebounds (11.2 RPG), and blocks. He is coming off a massive 22-point, 16-rebound performance against FSU and currently leads the nation in dunks.
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| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,209.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,157.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Terry Edelmann | +1,591.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,480.00 |
The Tar Heels’ "big lineup" strategy has been incredibly effective. Junior center Henri Veesaar (16.5 PPG, 9.4 RPG) provides a unique threat as a 7-footer who shoots 50% from three-point range. Defensively, UNC is elite, holding opponents to just 63.7 PPG and an ACC-best 36.1% shooting from the floor. They will need every bit of that defensive discipline to slow down an SMU team that loves to run.
One injury note to watch: senior guard and defensive anchor Seth Trimble is listed as questionable for Saturday. If he can't go, the pressure will mount on Kyan Evans, who is coming off a career-high five three-pointers in his last outing.
Mustangs’ high-octane offense defends home court
Head coach Andy Enfield has the Mustangs playing at a breakneck pace, averaging 91.1 PPG (2nd in the ACC). SMU is a perfect 9-0 at home and has reached the 100-point mark four times this season. They lead the conference in fast-break points, a direct contrast to a UNC defense that allows fewer than six fast-break points per game.
The Mustangs are led by a "three-headed monster" in the backcourt:
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Boopie Miller: The senior leader averaging 19.9 PPG and 7.1 assists.
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Jaron Pierre Jr.: A prolific scorer at 18.7 PPG with elite range.
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B.J. Edwards: A versatile guard averaging 13.5 PPG and 5.8 RPG, coming off a 21-point triple-double.
SMU’s frontcourt depth has also been a surprise, with Samet Yiğitoğlu and Jaden Toombs providing enough size to potentially match up with UNC's Veesaar and Wilson. The Mustangs' versatility allows them to slide Corey Washington between forward spots, giving them various looks to counter UNC's athleticism.
Spread pick for North Carolina vs. SMU
- SMU +1.5 (-115)
The atmosphere at Moody Coliseum will be electric for SMU's ACC home opener. While UNC is the higher-ranked team, the Mustangs have been unbeatable at home and possess the offensive firepower to stress UNC's perimeter defense, especially if Seth Trimble is sidelined. SMU's ability to turn the game into a high-possession track meet favors the home underdog in what essentially feels like a pick'em.
Total pick for North Carolina vs. SMU
- Over 153.5 (-110)
This is a classic "immovable object vs. unstoppable force" matchup. UNC has the nation's best scoring defense, but SMU scores 91 points per game. In their meeting last year, the pace was high, and with SMU's backcourt playing at an All-ACC level right now, they should be able to force UNC into a faster tempo. Expect a high-scoring affair that narrowly clears the 153.5 mark.
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