North Dakota State Bison vs Michigan State Spartans Picks and Predictions for Thursday, March 19, 2026
Use Code WWWC The North Dakota State Bison and the Michigan State Spartans meet at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament East Region on Thursday at 4:05 PM ET on TNT. North Dakota State is 27-7 after winning the Summit League Tournament and closing the season on a four-game winning streak, including a 70-62 title win over North Dakota. Michigan State is 25-7 after finishing 15-5 in Big Ten play, but dropped its last game 88-84 to UCLA in the Big Ten conference tournament. DraftKings lists Michigan State as a 16.5-point favorite with a total of 143.5. Let’s cash another ticket with our free college basketball picks.
North Dakota State Faces a Far More Talented Opponent
North Dakota State averages 80.7 points per game and shoots 46.8% from the field, an offense that relies on perimeter scoring. The Bison have multiple guards who can create shots and stretch defenses, but this matchup will be tough for the Bison. Damari Wheeler-Thomas leads the offense with an average of 14.4 points per game and is the primary perimeter scorer, while Trevian Carson adds averages of 12.0 points and 6.4 rebounds, giving the Bison a strong two-way presence. Markhi Strickland contributes with 11.8 points on 59.8% shooting, providing efficient scoring inside the arc.
Andy Stefonowicz directs the offense, averaging 4.9 assists per game while shooting 38.7% from three, making him the key playmaker in half-court sets. Treyson Anderson and Noah Feddersen combine for 19.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks, giving North Dakota State enough frontcourt production to compete against most opponents. The Bison average 15.5 assists and 8.3 steals. In the Summit League title game, the Bison controlled the glass and shot well from deep, which has been their formula throughout the season.
The challenge here is dealing with length and athleticism for a full 40 minutes. North Dakota State has not consistently faced teams that can pressure ball handlers while also controlling the glass. If the Bison do not hit perimeter shots early, possessions can become stagnant, and that puts added pressure on their defense to hold up against a more talented Michigan State squad.
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Key Injuries - North Dakota State Bison
- North Dakota State does not have any players listed on its injury report.
Michigan State’s Backcourt will Dictate Tempo
Michigan State averages 78.9 points per game while shooting 47.1% from the field, and the offense runs through Jeremy Fears Jr., who averages 15.7 points and 9.2 assists. Fears controls tempo, gets into the paint, and consistently creates high-percentage looks for teammates. Fears finished with 21 points and 13 assists against UCLA, showing his ability to produce against tough opponents. Jaxon Kohler adds averages of 12.7 points and 9.0 rebounds, giving Michigan State a strong presence on the glass and in second-chance situations.
Coen Carr contributes 11.6 points and 5.4 rebounds with athletic scoring around the rim, while Carson Cooper adds 10.8 points and 7.1 rebounds in the frontcourt. The Spartans average 39.8 rebounds and 18.5 assists, showing a strong presence on the glass and ball movement. Michigan State can score through multiple players.
Defensively, Michigan State has the tools to disrupt North Dakota State’s rhythm. The Spartans can switch well on defense without forcing mismatches, contest perimeter shots, and limit second-chance opportunities. While UCLA found success offensively versus the Spartans, that performance is not typical, and Michigan State is positioned to respond with a more controlled defensive effort in this matchup.
Key Injuries - Michigan State Spartans
- Kaleb Glenn — Out
- Divine Ugochukwu — Out
North Dakota State vs Michigan State Pick - Spread
- Michigan State -14.5
Michigan State holds clear advantages in depth, athleticism, and interior presence. North Dakota State can score, but this matchup forces them into tougher looks and limits transition opportunities. The Spartans will control tempo through Fears and create consistent scoring chances inside. Over time, the rebounding edge and defensive pressure will help the Spartans open a big lead in this game. North Dakota State relies heavily on shot-making, while Michigan State has several options to put the ball in the hoop. The Spartans will pull away in the second half and cover the number.
North Dakota State vs Michigan State - Over/Under Pick
- Over 143.5
The total is currently at 143.5, and the pace and scoring for both points toward the over. North Dakota State averages over 80 points per game and plays with enough tempo to keep possessions high. Michigan State has multiple scoring options and should generate plenty of open looks throughout. Even if the Spartans control the game, North Dakota State’s perimeter shooting can contribute enough to push the total higher. With both teams capable of reaching the mid-70s or higher, the over is the play.
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