Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Stanford Cardinal Predictions, Picks, Odds, and Line Movement for December 30, 2025
The ACC basketball season begins for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-4) and the Stanford Cardinal (11-2) at the Maples Pavilion on Tuesday night.
Last season, Notre Dame won the lone head-to-head meeting 56-54. In the ACC Preseason Poll, Notre Dame was selected to finish 10th, and Stanford was slated 17th. Make sure you are up to part with the college game with our free college basketball picks.
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The Irish are looking to make a statement
Notre Dame comes into this matchup at 9–4 overall, trending slightly above expectations after opening the season with a KenPom preseason rank of 77th. Micah Shrewsberry’s group has been tested early, playing a demanding schedule that included Kansas, Houston, Ohio State, Missouri, and TCU. While the Irish have dropped close games to elite competition, they’ve shown what they are capable of with quality wins over Rutgers, Missouri, and a road overtime victory at TCU. A recent home loss to Purdue Fort Wayne exposed some late-game issues, but the overall body of work has been solid.
Notre Dame is balanced with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.6 (78th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.2 (64th). The Irish also play at one of the slower tempos in the country, ranking 292nd in adjusted tempo, but shot the ball well. They rank 70th in effective field-goal percentage and 31st nationally in three-point shooting at 37.9%.
Markus Burton was the leader of the offense (18.5 ppg), but he has missed the last three games due to injury and also will not play against Stanford. With Burton out, the team is led by Jalen Haralson (14.7 ppg), Braeden Shrewsberry (12.2 ppg), and Carson Towt (10.2 rpg).
Will early success carry over?
Stanford enters this matchup playing some of its best basketball of the season, sitting at 11–2 with an overall KenPom-style rating of 85 after opening the year ranked 89th. Kyle Smith’s group has won three of its last four, including neutral-court victories over Minnesota, Saint Louis, and Colorado, showing an ability to handle different styles away from Maples Pavilion. While the Cardinal have taken care of business against mid-major competition, but suffered narrow losses to Seattle and UNLV.
Stanford is a balanced and physical team. They have an adjusted offensive efficiency of rating 113.8 (94th nationally). They are stronger on the other end, with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 103.6 (78th). Offensively, Stanford’s biggest strength is its ability to attack the rim and draw fouls, ranking 17th nationally in free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt. They also crash the offensive glass at a high level, ranking 65th in offensive rebounding rate.
The offense runs through Ebuka Okorie, who leads the team with 22.8 points per game while also pacing Stanford in assists. AJ Rohosy anchors the interior with 6.0 rebounds per contest, while Benny Gealer provides perimeter defense and energy, leading the team in steals.
Notre Dame vs Stanford Predictions
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
Notre Dame vs Stanford ATS Pick:
- Notre Dame +5.5 (4 units)
This line feels like an overreaction due to Markus Burton’s injury, but Notre Dame’s overall body of work, including playing three games without him, shows that they are well-equipped to keep this game close. Even without Burton, the Irish can grind out games thanks to elite rebounding and excellent three-point shooting.
Notre Dame has already faced a far tougher strength of schedule, and in a slower-paced conference opener where possessions will be at a premium, getting more than two possessions with the more battle-tested team offers value for me.
Notre Dame vs Stanford Total Pick:
- Under 146.5 (4 units)
Notre Dame plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, and Stanford is comfortable operating in the half-court as well. When we add in the heightened focus and tighter rotations that typically come with a conference opener, points should be harder to come by. Expect longer possessions, fewer transition opportunities, and an emphasis on execution. Take the under.
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