Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. California Golden Bears Picks and Prediction for Friday, January 2, 2026
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-4) vs. California Golden Bears (12-2)
The 2025-26 college basketball season continues Friday, January 2, with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish squaring off against the California Golden Bears in the ACC showdown at Haas Pavilion in Berkeley, CA, so we’ve got the Notre Dame vs. California prediction.
Notre Dame and California lock horns for the second straight season. In 2024-25, the Fighting Irish outlasted the Golden Bears 112-110 in quadruple overtime, playing as 4-point home favorites. Notre Dame is a 3.5-point road dog this time around, while the total sits at 140.5 points.
Read more about this Notre Dame vs. California prediction, and check out all our NCAAB picks for Friday’s card. The tip-off at Haas Pavilion is set at 11:00 PM ET.
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Notre Dame started conference play with a win
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-4; 9-5 ATS; 7-7 O/U) have won five of their previous six games overall. After stopping their four-game winning streak with a 72-69 defeat to Purdue Fort Wayne, the Fighting Irish opened conference play with a 47-40 road victory against Stanford this past Tuesday.
Notre Dame held Stanford to 23.2% shooting from the field (4-for-30 from deep). The Fighting Irish made just 32.1% of their field goals (3-for-16 from deep), but they outrebounded the Cardinal 48-36 while posting 16 offensive boards.
Freshman guard Jalen Haralson led the way for Notre Dame last Tuesday, notching 13 points and four rebounds, but he also had eight turnovers. Haralson averages 14.5 points and 3.7 rebounds, while junior guard Markus Burton tallies 18.5 points and 3.7 assists per game. Burton is out with an ankle injury.
Notre Dame scores 111.6 points per 100 possessions (113th in the country) and allows 99.8 points in return (46th). The Fighting Irish are sixth in the nation in defensive rebound percentage (76.3%), 68th in opposing 2-point percentage (47.6%), and 95th in opposing 3-point percentage (31.6%).
California is coming off a heavy loss
The California Golden Bears (12-2; 7-6 ATS; 6-7 O/U) started conference play with a loss. They put an end to their nine-game winning streak this past Tuesday, suffering a 90-70 home defeat against No. 16 Louisville. The Golden Bears failed to cover a 7.5-point spread.
Cal couldn’t cope with the Cardinals, who went 14-for-37 from downtown and posted 19 more rebounds than the Golden Bears. Louisville outscored California 36-16 in the paint, and the Bears made 33.9% of their field goals (9-for-26 from deep).
Senior forward Chris Bell dropped 20 points on Louisville, while sophomore guard Justin Pippen had 17 points and five assists. Junior guard Dai Dai Ames is the Bears’ leading scorer with 17.2 points per game this season, and Bell tallies 14.8 points a night.
California scores 112.9 points per 100 possessions (93rd in the country) and surrenders 101.9 points in return (70th). The Golden Bears make 39.2% of their shots from beyond the 3-point line (16th) while turning the ball over on just 14.8% of their possessions (43rd).
Notre Dame vs. California Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,494.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,859.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,428.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,400.00 |
Spread Pick for Notre Dame vs. California
- California -3.5 (5 units)
Markus Burton’s injury is a massive blow for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish still look like a solid defensive team, but Burton’s scoring and facilitating cannot be replaced.
On the other side, the Golden Bears have done a good job on both sides of the ball this season. Their defense is 55th in 2-point percentage (47.0%) and 69th in 3-point percentage (30.8%). They should have enough weapons to deal with the Fighting Irish’s defense, so I’m going with the Golden Bears, even though Notre Dame is arguably a better rebounding team than Cal.
The Bears are 12-1 SU in their last 13 outings at home. They must be fired up to bounce back from that 20-point loss against Louisville.
Over/Under Pick for Notre Dame vs. California
- Under 140.5 (5 units)
Betting on the under looks like a way to go in this game. Both teams are capable of playing tough defense, especially the Fighting Irish, who just held Stanford to 40 points. The Golden Bears gave up 90 points to Louisville, but the Cardinals are on another level.
Notre Dame loves to play at a slow pace. The Fighting Irish register 66.0 possessions per 40 minutes (320th in the country), and the under is 4-1 in their last five showings in conference play. The Golden Bears tally 68.4 possessions per 40 minutes (209th), and the under is 4-2 in their last six games overall.
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