Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs SMU Mustangs Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday February 10 2026
Notre Dame vs SMU picks are tricky because the spread is big for a conference game, but the matchup points strongly in one direction. SMU has been much more reliable at home, while Notre Dame has struggled to travel and is trying to survive with a short-handed roster. If you are hunting for value in Tuesday’s ACC slate, this is the type of game I want to attack for my college basketball picks.
Get Free $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: SMU -11.5
- Total Pick: Under 153.5
- Projected Final Score: SMU 79, Notre Dame 64
Odds and Line Movement
The market has been steady on SMU as a double-digit favorite, with the Mustangs holding in the -11.5 range for most of the move cycle. The total has also climbed from the low-150s into the mid-150s before settling back down, which tells me books expect SMU to score, but there is still uncertainty about how much Notre Dame can contribute offensively with its injury situation. 
Opening Odds
| Date | Time | Notre Dame | SMU | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | 03:00:05PM | +12.5 -118 | -12.5 +102 |
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nick Parsons | +4,844.00 |
| 2 |  Mark Ruelle | +4,761.00 |
| 3 |  Ricky Tran | +4,179.00 |
| 4 |  Rocky Atkinson | +3,950.00 |
| 5 |  The Gold Sheet | +2,955.00 |
Current Odds
| Date | Time | Notre Dame | SMU | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | 07:36:12AM | +11.5 -108 | -11.5 -112 | SMU 52%, SMU 60% |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Notre Dame | SMU | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | 03:00:05PM | +12.5 -118 | -12.5 +102 | |
| 02/09 | 05:30:14PM | +11.5 +102 | -11.5 -118 | |
| 02/09 | 05:31:27PM | +11.5 -108 | -11.5 -112 | |
| 02/09 | 09:12:11PM | +11.5 -105 | -11.5 -115 | ND 89%, ND 67% |
| 02/10 | 07:36:12AM | +11.5 -108 | -11.5 -112 | SMU 52%, SMU 60% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | 03:00:05PM | 152.5 -110 | 152.5 -110 | |
| 02/09 | 04:14:27PM | 154.5 -108 | 154.5 -112 | |
| 02/09 | 05:31:27PM | 154.5 -112 | 154.5 -108 | |
| 02/09 | 11:58:39PM | 154.5 -108 | 154.5 -112 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 02/09 | 11:58:49PM | 154.5 -112 | 154.5 -108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 02/10 | 12:27:29AM | 154.5 -108 | 154.5 -112 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 02/10 | 09:06:56AM | 153.5 -112 | 153.5 -108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
Notre Dame vs SMU Key Matchups and Handicap
SMU welcomes Notre Dame to Moody Coliseum in Dallas, and this profiles as a take-care-of-business spot for the Mustangs. SMU is 16-7 overall and 5-5 in ACC play, but the bigger detail is how strong they have been at home. The Mustangs are 12-2 on their home floor, and they tend to play with more pace and confidence when they can get into early offense.
SMU snapped a two-game skid in the best possible way, rolling at Pitt 86-67 on Saturday. That is the type of performance that matters because it shows they can get efficient guard play, move the ball, and turn stops into points.
Notre Dame has been in the opposite direction. The Irish are 11-13 overall and 2-9 in the ACC. They have dropped four straight and nine of their last 10 games. Their most recent loss was 82-79 against Florida State, and it followed a familiar pattern: slow start, late push, and not enough stops.
Notre Dame does have perimeter scoring punch. Braeden Shrewsberry led with 18 in that Florida State game, and Jalen Haralson scored 15 before fouling out. But Notre Dame’s margin for error is thin because they are missing key bodies in the frontcourt and backcourt.
This is where the handicap becomes clearer. SMU has no major injuries listed, so they can play their preferred style and keep fresh bodies on the floor. Notre Dame cannot do that right now. In a road spot like this, the short rotation usually shows up late, especially if the underdog has to chase the game.
If SMU gets even a modest lead, they can turn the second half into a possession-control game. That is why I like SMU against the spread and why I also lean under on the total.
ND and SMU Betting Trends
- SMU is 12-2 at home this season.
- Notre Dame is 2-6 on the road this season.
- SMU snapped a two-game losing skid with an 86-67 win at Pitt on Saturday.
- Notre Dame has dropped four straight and nine of its last 10 games.
- Notre Dame’s most recent loss was 82-79 vs Florida State.
ND and SMU Key Injuries and Notes
- Notre Dame is without forward Kebba Njie (knee, out for the season).
- Notre Dame is without guard Marcus Burton (ankle surgery, out indefinitely).
- Notre Dame is without center Thomas Ahneman (knee surgery, out indefinitely).
- SMU has no major injuries listed heading into this matchup.
ATS and Total Picks
- ATS Pick: SMU -11.5
- Total Pick: Under 153.5
Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: SMU 79, Notre Dame 64
How to Bet
If you are betting this game, I think the cleanest approach is to treat it like a depth and home-court handicap. SMU is the better team, they are in a strong home spot, and Notre Dame is short-handed in ways that matter over 40 minutes.
If you want to shop this line, I recommend checking a few books and comparing the spread and total using the best options from the sportsbook promo codes page. You can also compare odds across the best sportsbooks to make sure you are not laying an extra half-point.
If you prefer a different style of wagering, there are also social sportsbooks that let you play the same angles without the same deposit structure.
And if you are building a bigger card for Tuesday night, it never hurts to see what offers are available with the bet365 bonus code or the fliff promo code before locking in your plays.
Betting on College Basketball?
- Join Winners and Whiners premium for free and get a free $30 coupon with code FREE30
- Get started and wager on college hoops today with our favorite online sportsbooks
- Claim a CBB betting bonus offer with the best sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Get $300 Back in Bonus Bets Every Day For 10 Days
