Notre Dame vs. Louisville Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, February 4th, 2026

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-11, 11-1 ATS, 14-8 O/U) take on the Louisville Cardinals (15-6, 11-10 ATS, 8-13 O/U) in an ACC meeting on Wednesday evening, and we have you covered with the prediction. The Fighting Irish sustained a road loss against Syracuse on Saturday. The Cardinals netted a home win against SMU. Louisville posted a home win against Notre Dame last season.

Can Louisville take this one by more than 17 points on Wednesday? Continue reading to see the prediction. Nobody does it better when it comes to NCAAB Picks!

Notre Dame Seeks Third Conference Win

The Notre Damę Fighting Irish are eying their third conference win. Notre Dame is having difficulty winning games in ACC play due to the defense. They did manage an upset win against Stanford in their conference opener. They lost home meetings against Clemson and Miami last month.

Notre Damę defeated Boston College in their second conference victory. The Irish were hit with an overtime home defeat against Virginia last week and were not competitive in an 86-72 road defeat against Syracuse last weekend. They were six-point dogs in that one. Notre Damę shot 49% while Syracuse posted a 57% efficiency. The Fighting Irish are 2-7 in ACC action and have covered the spread in one of their past five games.

Jalen Haralson is capable of big numbers. The freshman forward scored 20 against Virginia and 26 points on Saturday. He has recorded an average of 15.5 PPG on the season. Braeden Shrewsberry has recorded 20 points in three games this season. The junior guard has posted an average of 11.7 PPG. Cole Certa has shot at least 50% in just one game in conference play. The sophomore guard is averaging 10.2 PPG.

Carson Towt is having a strong year. The senior forward has scored at least six points in all but two ACC games. He has been efficient, averaging 6.5 PPG on 59% shooting, accompanied by 9.5 RPG. Sir Mohamed has scored double digits in three of his past six games. The senior guard managed six points on Saturday and has reported 5.3 RPG.

The Fighting Irish are marked 82nd in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings and stand at 2-5 on the road, including a defeat against Ohio State. Notre Dame is averaging 74 points on the year, marking them 202nd. The Fighting Irish have conceded 81 or more points in five of their past six games and are squandering an average of 72.2 points, placing them 110th.

Louisville Answers in Win vs. SMU

The Louisville Cardinals are targeting their sixth ACC win of the season. Louisville has been a threat in a stacked ACC conference. They did lose two of their first three conference games after defeats against Stanford and Duke. Louisville has posted a record above .500 since.

The Cardinals beat Virginia Tech a few weeks ago, accompanied by a blowout road defeat in the rematch against Duke last week. Next, Louisville earned an 88-74 home win against SMU on Saturday to cover the 9.5-point spread. They shot 49% in the win, while SMU was able to shoot 48%. They stand at 5-4 in ACC play. The Cardinals have covered the spread in just two of their past five games.

Ryan Conwell has been inconsistent, shooting below 36% in three of his past five games. The senior guard scored 12 on Saturday and has delivered an average of 19.1 PPG on the season. Mikel Brown Jr. has been a threat, surpassing 20 points in two of his past three efforts. The freshman guard has issued 16.4 PPG on 39% shooting. Isaac McNeeley has been kept to single digits in two of his last three games. The senior guard is averaging 11.6 PPG.

J’Vonne Hadley has been a threat, amassing at least 11 points in all but one conference game. The senior guard has recorded 10.8 PPG. Sanada Fru managed just three points on Saturday. The junior forward has yielded 10.2 PPG and 6.7 RPG.

The Cardinals are ranked 16th in DI in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings and dipped three spots to #24 in the recent edition of the AP Top 25. Louisville is 11-2 at home, including a defeat against Virginia. They are averaging 86.1 points on the year, marking them 22nd. The Cardinals are conceding an average of 70.5 points, placing them 75th in the country.

Notre Dame vs. Louisville Pick

Spread Pick for Notre Dame vs. Louisville

• Louisville Cardinals -17 (5 units)

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are being exposed in conference play. They have dropped seven of their nine conference games this season and have only covered the spread in three games in that span. The Louisville Cardinals are one of the better teams in the ACC and have won three of their past four games.

Furthermore, Notre Dame is weak offensively. They are playing without one of their best players, Markus Burton, who leads the team in scoring. Notre Dame is ranked 90th in adjusted offensive efficiency. This is not bad, but Louisville is among the best, averaging 125 points per 100 possessions. That's 10.2 more points than Notre Dame. The Cardinals are also conceding 5.2 fewer points per 100. Also, Louisville is winning by big margins. Each of their Cardinals conference wins has been by double digits.

Over/Under Pick for Notre Dame vs. Louisville

• Under 153 (5 units)

I expect this one to go under. Notre Dame plays at a slower pace, ranking 302nd in DI in adjusted tempo, and is only shooting 45% on the season. Notre Dame has been kept to 71 or fewer points in six of nine conference games.

In addition, the Fighting Irish are above average in the defensive end. They stand 82nd in DI out of 360+ teams in adjusted defensive efficiency. Louisville has scored 76 or fewer points in five of its past eight games. The under is a convincing 5-1 in the Cardinals’ past six games.