Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Picks and Predictions, Wednesday, January 21st. 2026
Use Code WWWC The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-8) and the #22 North Carolina Tar Heels (14-4) will battle in an ACC matchup on Wednesday night in this Notre Dame vs. North Carolina prediction. The Fighting Irish are coming off an 89-76 loss on the road in Virginia Tech, missing the cover as 6.5 point underdogs. UNC just lost at Cal, falling 84-78 as 7.5-point favorites. Tipoff is set for 7:00 EST and can be found on ESPN2. Keep reading to see our Notre Dame vs. North Carolina prediction, and keep up with all of our best NCAAB Betting Picks!
Notre Dame Starts Slow in the ACC
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish play in the ACC in college basketball, unlike their football team on campus. Unfortunately for the Irish, they have gotten out to a slow start in conference play, as they lost four of their first five games in ACC play. Their last three losses have all come by ten or more points, and they will look to pull a big upset here in Chapel Hill.
In their last game against Virginia Tech, they were led by Brady Koehler off the bench with 17 points in the loss. He is a 6'10 freshman who is working to improve his inside-out game, but is only averaging 4.4 PPG on the season. Notre Dame has been without their top scorer, as Markus Burton was scoring 18.5 PPG before coming out of the lineup with an injury in early December. This makes 6'7 freshman Jalen Haralson their top scorer, he is getting 14.7 PPG and 3.5 RPG while playing an inside out game.
Notre Dame is currently ranked 75th out of 365 Division I teams according to KenPom. They are 107th in offensive efficiency and 55th in defensive efficiency. They play at a very slow pace, ranking 305th in the country in pace of play.
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Tar Heels Drop Three of Four
One of these ACC teams will get back on track, as the North Carolina Tar Heels have lost three of their last four, and look to grab a home win here over the Irish. They dropped two consecutive games out West against Cal and Stanford, and also fell against SMU while mixing in a win against Wake Forest. In their last game, they were led by Caleb Wilson with 17 points in the loss to California.
Wilson looks like he will be a future NBA player, as the freshman is one of the top prospects in the country. Wilson is a 6'10 forward leading the team with 19.7 PPG and 10.6 RPG, he has an old school post game as he has only made four three-pointers all season. Wilson has scored 17 or more in each of his last three games. Henri Vesaar is another elite post prospect for UNC, he is a 7'0 junior out of Estonia getting 17.2 PPG and 9.1 RPG. Their final scorer in double figures is Seth Trimble, a veteran guard scoring 15.0 PPG.
North Carolina is ranked 36th overall according to KenPom. They are 36th in offensive efficiency and 53rd in defensive efficiency. They play faster than Notre Dame, ranking 169th in tempo.
Key Injuries for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina:
Notre Dame
- Out: Markus Burton
North Carolina
- None listed
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Picks and Predictions
Spread pick for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
- North Carolina -11.5 (5 units)
This game is when the water will rise back to the skill level, as North Carolina is loaded with talent, and Notre Dame is without their star point guard. The Irish could have kept this close if Burton was in the game, but without their 17 PPG scorer on the perimeter, they will not have enough fire power to compete with the Tar Heels. Even more importantly, UNC is huge inside with two future NBA players, they will control the paint and get an easy win here.
Take UNC to win and cover.
Over/Under Pick for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
- Over (4 units)
North Carolina will put on a show here, running up a big number for their team, and pushing this number way over the total. North Carolina has gone over the total in five of their last six, and will smell blood in the water in this game, which will allow them to play fast and create a quick tempo game. Notre Dame typically plays slow, but they will not have the option to dictate tempo here, and will have to try to score quickly to keep up with North Carolina, expect a high scoring game here.
Take the over.
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