Notre Dame vs. TCU Picks and Predictions, Friday, November 5th, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-3) and the TCU Horned Frogs (5-2) tip off in an exciting non-conference matchup on Friday night in this Notre Dame vs. TCU prediction. Notre Dame just defeated Missouri 76-71 at home, covering as 1.5-point home dogs. TCU is fresh off a neutral site win over Wisconsin 74-63, winning outright as 6.5-point underdogs. Tipoff is set for 8:00 EST. See below for our Notre Dame vs. TCU prediction, and check out all of our winning NCAAB Betting Picks!
Notre Dame Faces Tough Schedule
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have three losses already on the season, but that is likely to happen when you schedule a non-conference slate as difficult as the Irish have. Their three losses came against strong schools, as they went down against Ohio State, Kansas and #3 Houston. They have managed two early wins against power conference schools, as they took down Rutgers and Missouri. Their game against Missouri was their most recent outing, where they were led by Markus Burton with 18 points in the victory.
In the modern era of the transfer portal, Burton has been a loyal player for the Irish. The 6'0 junior has been averaging over 17.0 PPG since his first year on campus in South Bend, and finished last season averaging 21.3 PPG. This year, Burton is getting 19.9 PPG and 3.6 APG to lead the team. Their next top scorer is a true freshman, as Jalen Haralson is getting 13.3 PPG and 3.1 RPG in his first year on campus. Haralson is a 6'7 forward who does most of his work on the interior, as he has yet to make his first three-pointer. Braeden Shrewsberry is their third scorer in double figures; he is getting exactly 10.0 PPG as a 6'4 junior guard.
Notre Dame is ranked 69th overall out of 365 Division I teams according to KenPom. They are 85th in offensive efficiency and 53rd in defensive efficiency. The Fighting Irish play at a slow pace, ranking 308th in the nation in pace of play.
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Horned Frogs Need to Find Consistency
The TCU Horned Frogs have some incredible victories in this young season, but a bad loss is the reason why they are still outside of the AP Top 25. TCU recently went to a neutral court and defeated #10 Florida and Wisconsin in consecutive games, but they are still shaking off their opening-day loss. TCU went down to New Orleans at home to start the season, despite being listed as 22-point favorites. They have looked strong since then, with their most recent win over Wisconsin coming with a 17-point, nine-rebound performance from David Punch in the win.
Punch is their leading scorer this year, as the 6'7, 245-pound sophomore is in his second year on campus with TCU. He is getting 12.7 PPG and 7.0 RPG after starting most of the team's games last year as a freshman. Punch does not look to shoot much from the outside and chooses to battle it out in the paint. Jayden Pierre joined TCU after a productive three-year stretch at Providence in the Big East. Pierre is a 6'0 senior guard getting 11.7 PPG and 2.1 APG. Their final scorer in double figures is Brock Harding, the 6'0 junior guard came over from Iowa to run the point and is dishing out 6.1 APG to go with his 10.0 PPG.
TCU is ranked 49th overall according to KenPom. They are 98th in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency. They play faster than Notre Dame, ranking 161st in pace of play.
Key Injuries for Notre Dame vs. TCU:
Notre Dame
- None listed
TCU
- Jace Posey is questionable with a knee injury, he averages 9.0 PPG as a guard.
Notre Dame vs. TCU Picks and Predictions
Spread pick for Notre Dame vs. TCU
- TCU -6.5 (5 units)
This is not a good matchup for Notre Dame, and TCU is coming into this home game with a ton of momentum on their side. If TCU had not dropped their opening game against New Orleans, it would be a Top 25 team. They overlooked that opponent, and have corrected their course with recent wins over Florida and Wisconsin. Notre Dame likes to play slow and relies on their starting point guard to provide the bulk of their scoring. Burton is a strong scorer, but TCU has an aggressive veteran backcourt with Pierre and Harding, who will be able to challenge him on the outside. The best unit in this game is TCU's defense, which ranks 14th in the nation in KenPom. TCU will get enough stops and ride their momentum to a cover at home.
Take TCU to win and cover.
Over/Under Pick for Notre Dame vs. TCU
- Under 139.5 (4 units)
The story of this game will be TCU's defense and Notre Dame's slow tempo, which will result in an under. As mentioned earlier, TCU is 14th in the nation in defensive efficiency, and are going up against a Notre Dame offense that is only 85th in efficiency. TCU's home court advantage will play into this even more, with their crowd ready to take down the Irish. TCU will focus their defense on Burton, and force the freshman Haralson to try to beat them on his own, which he will not be able to do on his own. Notre Dame wants to keep this close; they will do so by playing a slow pace, helping to keep this under the number.
Take the under.
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