Omaha vs South Dakota Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday March 6 2026
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The 2026 Summit League Tournament quarterfinals deliver one of Friday's most evenly matched betting spots, and these Omaha vs South Dakota picks center on two programs that finished in a dead heat in the standings and already played three competitive games this season — and if you want every Summit League Tournament angle covered, our college basketball picks have the full Friday slate broken down from tip-off to final buzzer. The Coyotes swept the regular-season series, are being offered as the underdog despite the better head-to-head record, and are playing without their leading scorer — making the spread direction and injury context the two most important variables before tonight's tip-off in Sioux Falls. Here is everything you need.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: South Dakota +2.5
- Total Pick: Under 150.5
- Projected Final Score: South Dakota 74, Omaha 72
Odds and Line Movement
Omaha opened as a 2.5-point favorite with Omaha at -102 and South Dakota at -120 juice, and the line has since tightened to even -110 on both sides as of the most recent Friday morning update. That juice correction — moving from a significant imbalance at open toward even money — reflects action on South Dakota without enough volume to move the number itself off 2.5. The total opened and has remained at 150.5 with the over at -115 and the under at -105, a slight under lean built into the opening price that has not changed since the line was posted. The market's opening lean toward the under at a better price point is consistent with the expectation of a tightly contested, slower second half between two evenly matched conference opponents who know each other well.
Opening Odds
| Market | Omaha | South Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-102) | +2.5 (-120) |
| Total (Over) | 150.5 (-115) | |
| Total (Under) | 150.5 (-105) | |
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mark Zinno | +2,189.00 |
| 2 |  Nick Parsons | +1,919.00 |
| 3 |  Joseph D'Amico | +1,534.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,456.00 |
| 5 |  Tom Macrina | +164.00 |
Current Odds
| Market | Omaha | South Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-110) | +2.5 (-110) |
| Total (Over) | 150.5 (-115) | |
| Total (Under) | 150.5 (-105) | |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Omaha | South Dakota | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06 | 05:51:48 AM | -2½ -110 | +2½ -110 | – |
| 03/05 | 03:46:09 PM | -2½ -102 | +2½ -120 | – |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05 | 03:46:09 PM | 150½ -115 | 150½ -105 | – |
Omaha vs South Dakota Key Matchups and Handicap
This Summit League Tournament quarterfinal is as close to a true coin flip as the bracket produces. Omaha finished 15-16 overall and 8-8 in Summit League play as the No. 5 seed; South Dakota entered at 16-15 overall and 8-8 in league play as the No. 4 seed. They were separated by a single spot in the bracket — the Coyotes held the No. 4 seed, earning the slight edge — and the spread of -2.5 on Omaha reflects the market's respect for the Mavericks as the defending tournament champion rather than any dominant structural advantage. The head-to-head results tell a different story about which team has earned the right to be the favorite.
South Dakota swept the regular-season series, and the two wins covered completely different game styles. The Coyotes won 68-64 in Omaha on January 21 — a grinder where Jordan Crawford's 27-point performance was the deciding factor — and then won decisively 89-72 in Vermillion on February 25, demonstrating they can also beat Omaha in a wide-open game. That versatility is exactly what you want in a single-elimination tournament underdog. A team that has already proven it can win this specific matchup in two completely different scoring environments does not need luck or a favorable style — it just needs to execute.
Omaha's profile is built on defensive solidity and rebounding. The Mavericks average 76.8 points per game while allowing 77.0, a marginally positive defensive margin that keeps games controlled without generating large scoring advantages. Their rebounding at 34.6 per game provides the glass control that limits opponent second-chance opportunities and generates extra possessions in transition. Paul Djobet is the engine of the Omaha offense at 18.4 points and 6.3 rebounds per game — an inside-outside threat who has elevated the Mavericks' ceiling since increasing his role in the rotation. Lance Waddles adds 12.8 points per game as a secondary scorer, while Tony Osburn contributes 12.3 points with perimeter volume that can stretch defenses.
South Dakota's offensive attack is balanced across three reliable contributors. Cameron Fens anchors the Coyotes' frontcourt at 14.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game — the best interior presence in this matchup and a player whose foul-drawing and rebounding create extra possessions for a South Dakota team that benefits from extended offensive possessions. Jordan Crawford adds 14.5 points per game as the primary perimeter creator, while Uzziah Buntyn contributes 12.1 points and 3.5 assists per game, providing the playmaking depth that keeps the Coyotes' half-court offense organized. That three-man balance gives South Dakota multiple answers when Omaha focuses defensively on any single contributor.
The injury picture is the most significant structural asymmetry in this matchup. Isaac Bruns — South Dakota's leading scorer at 20.8 points per game — has been out since mid-January with a foot injury and will not play tonight. His absence removes the Coyotes' highest-ceiling offensive option and places greater responsibility on Fens, Crawford, and Buntyn to collectively replace what was the single most efficient scoring source on the team. That is a real disadvantage. It is also already baked into the season results: South Dakota went on to beat Omaha 89-72 in the February 25 meeting after Bruns' absence was established, which means the Coyotes' victory against this specific opponent came without their best player. Omaha has no major rotation injuries entering the game, which makes this the cleaner structural assessment — Omaha is healthier, but South Dakota has already won this matchup shorthanded.
Betting Trends – UNO vs USD
- South Dakota is the No. 4 seed at 16-15 overall and 8-8 in Summit League play; Omaha is the No. 5 seed at 15-16 overall and 8-8 in league play.
- South Dakota swept the regular-season series — winning 68-64 in Omaha on January 21 and 89-72 in Vermillion on February 25.
- Jordan Crawford scored 27 points in South Dakota's January 21 win in Omaha.
- Isaac Bruns (20.8 ppg) has been out for South Dakota since mid-January with a foot injury — he will not play tonight.
- South Dakota beat Omaha 89-72 in February after Bruns' absence was established, demonstrating they can compete shorthanded against this specific opponent.
- Paul Djobet leads Omaha at 18.4 points and 6.3 rebounds per game.
- Cameron Fens leads South Dakota's available roster at 14.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game.
- The spread opened at Omaha -2.5 with South Dakota at -120 juice and has since settled to even -110 on both sides.
- The total opened and remains at 150.5 with the over at -115 and the under at -105 — a slight under lean built into the opening price.
- Omaha has no major rotation injuries reported heading into the quarterfinal.
Key Injuries and Notes – UNO vs USD
- Isaac Bruns (USD) – Out (Foot, Season-Ending): Bruns has been out since mid-January with a foot injury and will not return this season. His 20.8 points per game made him the Coyotes' leading scorer and primary offensive weapon — his absence removes their single most efficient scoring option and forces Fens, Crawford, and Buntyn to collectively carry an offensive load that Bruns previously handled independently. The critical context: South Dakota already beat Omaha 89-72 in a February meeting after his absence was established, which limits how much weight this injury should carry as a betting variable for tonight's specific matchup.
- Omaha – No Major Injuries Reported: The Mavericks enter Friday's quarterfinal with no significant rotation losses and their full lineup available. Djobet, Waddles, and Osburn are all expected to play, which keeps Omaha's three-man offensive structure fully intact for tonight's game.
- Tournament Format Note: This is a single-elimination Summit League Tournament quarterfinal in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The winner advances to the semifinals; the loser's season ends. Neutral-site single-elimination games between teams with 8-8 conference records and evenly matched personnel tend to tighten late — both teams know each other's tendencies from three prior meetings, and late-game adjustments often produce slower possessions and more deliberate shot selection in the final minutes.
ATS and Total Picks
- Spread Pick – South Dakota +2.5 (-110): The Coyotes swept the regular-season series with wins in two completely different game styles, including a victory in Omaha and a decisive win in Vermillion — both without their leading scorer. Getting +2.5 on the team with the better head-to-head record and the higher seed at even juice is the correct side of this spread. Back South Dakota with the points.
- Total Pick – Under 150.5 (-105): The opening price already favors the under at -105, and tournament games between evenly matched teams who know each other from multiple regular-season meetings consistently tighten late. South Dakota's style is capable of pushing pace, but the third meeting between these teams — in an elimination setting with stakes — favors a deliberate, slower-paced second half. Take the under at -105, the better price on this game.
Final Score Prediction
South Dakota 74, Omaha 72. Fens controls the interior, Crawford provides the late-game creation the Coyotes need without Bruns, and South Dakota's familiarity with this matchup shows up in the final possessions when it matters most. The under cashes as both teams grind through a controlled final eight minutes consistent with the January meeting's 132-point combined total. Back South Dakota +2.5 and take the under.
How to Bet the Mavericks vs Coyotes on Friday
Summit League Tournament quarterfinal games in Sioux Falls are exactly the kind of spot where head-to-head context and injury knowledge give you a genuine edge over public bettors who rely on seasonal records and seeds. Here is how to get positioned before tonight's tip-off:
- Activate a welcome offer before placing your first wager by checking the latest sportsbook promo codes — some books offer first-bet insurance that is especially useful on a tight spread like this one where a single possession determines the cover.
- Shop the South Dakota +2.5 and the under 150.5 across multiple platforms using our guide to the best sportsbooks — with the under already at -105 on some books and South Dakota's juice having tightened to -110, finding the best available price before tip-off adds real value on both sides.
- Want to track any last-minute lineup updates before committing real money tonight? Social sportsbooks let you follow the action with virtual currency and stay ready to act when final availability is confirmed.
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