Penn State vs. Indiana, Preview, Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, December 9, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Tuesday, the Penn State Nittany Lions will visit the Indiana Hoosiers at Assembly Hall, and we have you ready to go with our Penn State vs. Indiana prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Bloomington, IN, is at 8:30 p.m. ET.
The Hoosiers are 13.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 151.5 points.
Indiana beat Penn State twice last season and has won three straight in the series. If you want the Penn State vs. Indiana prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
Penn State ranks 353rd in strength of schedule
Penn State (8-1 SU, 3-6 ATS, and 4-5 O/U) bounced back from its first loss of the season to Providence with consecutive victories over Boston University (96-87), Sacred Heart (90-59), and Campbell (87-76). Tuesday's game is the Nittany Lions' first of the Big Ten season. They are 1-4 against the spread in their previous five games.
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PSU was picked to finish 18th (last) in the Big Ten's preseason media poll. The Nittany Lions are coached by Mike Rhoades, who is in his third season in Happy Valley (40-33 record). He previously coached VCU to three NCAA tourney appearances in his six seasons there. Penn State scores 83.1 points per game (150th) on 50.8 percent shooting (28th), including 37.6 percent from deep (42nd). Defensively, they give up 70.0 points per game (82nd) on 45.1 percent shooting (254th), including 32.7 percent from long range (185th).
The Nittany Lions dealt with significant roster turnover this past offseason, as only three players returned from last season’s roster. While several players transferred out of University Park, PSU also lost Puff Johnson, D’Marco Dunn, Nick Kern, Zach Hicks, and Ace Baldwin Jr. to graduation and Yanic Konan Niederhauser to the NBA draft. Freshman point guard Kayden Mingo paces Penn State in scoring, averaging 15.0 points with 4.2 dimes and 4.0 boards. He's joined in the backcourt by junior guard Freddie Dilione V (13.2 PPG), a former Tennessee transfer who started 28 games for the Lions last season. A few other Penn State players to watch against Indiana are freshman guard Melih Tunca (12.8 PPG and 3.8 APG with a 45.0% 3PT%), senior forward Josh Reed (10.6 PPG and 4.2 RPG), and 7-foot freshman forward Ivan Juric (10.6 PPG and 4.3 RPG with a 71.4% FG%).
Penn State Nittany Lions Injury Report:
- No injuries.
Hoosiers have struggled with their stroke recently
Indiana (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, and 5-4 O/U) has dropped consecutive games after a 7-0 start, falling in its conference opener to Minnesota and in a non-conference clash with Louisville over the weekend. The Hoosiers shot just 40 percent overall against the Golden Gophers and were outrebounded 40-25. They managed just 27 first-half points in the nine-point loss to the Cardinals, struggling once again from the field (41%) and beyond the arc (32%). Indiana is 2-3 ATS in its previous five games.
The Hoosiers were picked to finish 10th in the Big Ten's preseason media poll. They are led by first-year coach Darian DeVries, who led West Virginia to a 19-13 record last season and was 150-55 over the previous six seasons at Drake. Indiana scores 85.4 points per game (115th) on 48.2 percent shooting (70th), including 36.2 percent from deep (88th). Defensively, they surrender 66.3 points per game (31st) on 38.4 percent shooting (28th), including 32.8 percent from long range (186th).
With ten transfers and five freshmen, there are a lot of new faces in Bloomington. IU raided several mid-major programs to build its 2025-26 roster, as only forwards Sam Alexis (Florida) and Tucker DeVries (West Virginia) came from Power-4 teams. The coach's son, DeVries, was the most impactful addition, as the senior forward is a five-year starter with career averages of 17.7 points and 5.6 rebounds with a 37.1% mark from three-point range. He's hit 44.1 percent of his treys this season despite taking 8.4 per game. The Hoosiers' starting rotation is pretty small, with an emphasis on ballhandlers who can score and push the basketball in transition. A few players to watch are senior guard Lamar Wilkerson (16.0 PPG and 1.7 SPG this season), senior forward Sam Alexis (10.0 PPG and 5.8 RPG), and senior guard Tayton Connerway (11.8 PPG and 4.4 APG).
Indiana Hoosiers Injury Report:
- No significant injuries.
Penn State vs. Indiana Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Penn State vs. Indiana
- Nittany Lions +13.5 (4 Units)
Things are about to get real for Penn State, as it faces the 13th-most difficult upcoming schedule after playing eight Quad 4 opponents to start the season. I doubt the Nittany Lions will win straight-up, but they should be able to cover Tuesday's 13.5-point spread. There's no denying that this is a challenging matchup for the visitors, but I feel confident they will have enough offensive success to cover. The Lions will challenge the Hoosiers at the rim (10th-highest near-proximity shot attempt rate in the country), using their size to their advantage. They also shoot nearly 38 percent from three-point range, as six of their top eight scorers shoot between 37.9 percent and 50.0 percent from deep.
Indiana was projected to finish 10th in the B1G this season. Early wins over Marquette and Kansas State may have skewed expectations, and the Hoosiers struggled to find the bottom of the net the past two games, losing by 9 points in each contest. I'm not confident they'll be completely locked in for this game, either, as a road trip to face Kentucky in Lexington looms next.
Over/Under Pick for Penn State vs. Indiana
- Under 151.5 (4 Units)
There are red flags to consider concerning both teams in this conference clash. Penn State has faced some of the nation's weakest competition and has a new-look roster. Winning or even playing competitively at Assembly Hall is a challenge, especially for a squad ranked 344th in average years of D-1 experience. While the Lions' 8-1 start is encouraging, they went 8-1 before the start of Big Ten play last season, only to finish 4-13 in their final 17 games.
I also have concerns about the Hoosiers' recent performances. They barely shot over 40 percent from the field in their last two games. How will they fare if they're challenged inside by Penn State's big men? The Nittany Lions rank 25th in opponent free-throw attempt rate and have forced their opponents into long-range shots (43.7% 3PT attempt rate). Indiana has been inefficient from beyond the arc recently and only features two significant contributors shooting over 35 percent from deep.
With all that said, I lean towards the under at 151.5.
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