Saint Joseph's Hawks vs New Mexico Lobos Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday March 24 2026
Use Code WWWC The NIT's third round delivers one of the most compelling Cinderella storylines of the entire postseason on Tuesday night, and our college basketball picks are taking a hard look at a Saint Joseph's squad that has already knocked off two opponents on the road while New Mexico has been destroying its bracket competition at home. The Hawks have been scrappy, unconventional, and difficult to put away — the Lobos have been dominant, efficient, and shooting over 50 percent from the floor across two NIT blowouts. Something has to give at The Pit on Tuesday, and the total movement and current spread tell you exactly where the sharp money is landing heading into tip-off.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: New Mexico -11.5
- Total Pick: Over 152.5
- Projected Final Score: New Mexico 86, Saint Joseph's 72
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Side | Spread (Open) | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Saint Joseph's | +11.5 | -115 |
| New Mexico | -11.5 | -105 |
Current Odds
| Side | Spread (Current) | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Saint Joseph's | +11.5 | -118 |
| New Mexico | -11.5 | -104 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | St. Joseph's | New Mexico | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/24 | 10:01 AM | +11.5 -118 | -11.5 -104 | — |
| 03/24 | 09:33 AM | +10.5 -108 | -10.5 -112 | — |
| 03/24 | 09:33 AM | +10.5 -110 | -10.5 -110 | — |
| 03/24 | 09:32 AM | +10.5 -108 | -10.5 -112 | — |
| 03/24 | 09:31 AM | +10.5 -106 | -10.5 -114 | — |
| 03/24 | 08:56 AM | +10.5 -105 | -10.5 -115 | — |
| 03/24 | 08:19 AM | +11.5 -120 | -11.5 -102 | — |
| 03/23 | 10:59 AM | +11.5 -115 | -11.5 -105 | — |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/24 | 10:13 AM | 152.5 -115 | 152.5 -105 | — |
| 03/23 | 04:40 PM | 152.5 -110 | 152.5 -110 | — |
| 03/23 | 01:32 PM | 152.5 -105 | 152.5 -115 | — |
| 03/23 | 01:29 PM | 151.5 -105 | 151.5 -115 | — |
| 03/23 | 01:27 PM | 150.5 -105 | 150.5 -115 | — |
| 03/23 | 01:25 PM | 149.5 -105 | 149.5 -115 | — |
| 03/23 | 10:59 AM | 148.5 -105 | 148.5 -115 | — |
Saint Joseph's vs New Mexico Matchup and Handicap
The narrative entering Tuesday night is irresistible: Saint Joseph's, a Philadelphia program that has spent the last two weeks playing road games in Fort Collins, Berkeley, and now Albuquerque, is one upset win away from completing one of the more remarkable NIT runs in recent memory. The Hawks knocked off Colorado State and then overcame a 19-point second-half deficit against Cal on Sunday, surviving on guts, defense, and timely shooting down the stretch. That kind of resilience deserves respect on the betting market, and it explains why Saint Joseph's backers are already getting an 11.5-point head start.
But the analytical case for New Mexico is overwhelming once you move past the storyline. The Lobos have averaged nearly 94 points per game in their two NIT wins while shooting better than 50 percent from the floor across both contests. That is not a hot stretch against weak opponents who rolled over — that is a team that has been consistently executing at a high level while their home crowd at The Pit provides one of the loudest and most difficult road environments in college basketball. Saint Joseph's has now played back-to-back emotional comeback games in hostile environments, and the cumulative fatigue and emotional toll of those efforts is a real variable that does not show up in any box score.
The offensive mismatch is the central handicapping issue in this game. New Mexico is generating points from multiple sources: Jake Hall at 16 points per game, Tomislav Buljan at 18 in the NIT, and freshman guard Uriah Tennette adding 17 per game in tournament play. That is three players operating at a scoring rate that Saint Joseph's has not faced from a single opponent in this NIT run, let alone three simultaneously. The Lobos are a different animal than the Rams and the Bears, and Olen's team will be motivated to send a message at home in the third round.
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Saint Joseph's defensive identity has been the engine of this run, and it deserves acknowledgment. The Hawks shut down Colorado State and Cal in the clutch, and Jaiden Glover-Toscano's block at the buzzer Sunday was the defining moment of a tournament that has been built on stops. But the Lobos have been more difficult to stop than either previous opponent, and Saint Joseph's shooting — 42 percent from the floor and just 16 of 49 from three-point range across two games — will need to improve significantly if the Hawks are going to keep this within the number against a New Mexico defense that has allowed the Rams and the Colonials a combined total well below what this total implies.
The total movement is one of the more dramatic market shifts on Tuesday's board. The number opened at 148.5 on Sunday morning with the Over priced at -105, climbed steadily through the afternoon in one-point increments — 149.5, 150.5, 151.5, 152.5 — before settling at 152.5 with the juice flipping to Over -115 by Tuesday morning. A four-point climb in a single tracking window is a significant market adjustment, and the direction of the movement clearly reflects the books pricing in New Mexico's offensive capacity against a Saint Joseph's defense that has already been on the road for two consecutive grind-it-out games.
Betting Trends - SJU vs UNM
The spread movement on this game has been back and forth between 10.5 and 11.5 throughout the tracking window, which is an unusual amount of oscillation for a game that opened at a relatively stable number on Sunday morning. The line opened at New Mexico -11.5 with the Lobos lightly juiced at -105, spent most of Tuesday morning at -10.5 across multiple snapshots, and then jumped back to -11.5 with the juice shifting to New Mexico -104 in the most recent available snapshot. That back-and-forth between 10.5 and 11.5 is a signal that competing money has been coming in on both sides of a half-point threshold that matters — a one-possession game that lands exactly on 11 splits those bets very differently depending on which number you hold.
The total is the more straightforward data story. The number opened at 148.5 on Sunday morning and climbed four full points to 152.5 by Tuesday, a sustained and directionally consistent move that reflects the market's ongoing reassessment of how many points New Mexico is capable of generating at home in the third round. The juice started Over-favored at -105 and has shifted to Over -115 by the most recent Tuesday morning snapshot, which means the books have absorbed significant buying pressure on the high side and are now charging a premium to continue going over — yet the number keeps climbing. That combination of rising total and rising Over juice points to genuine market confidence in a high-scoring environment.
Key Injuries and Notes - SJU vs UNM
Saint Joseph's enters this game without significant confirmed injury news, but the physical and emotional toll of two consecutive road comeback wins in the span of a week is a factor that bettors should weigh seriously. The Hawks played 40-plus minutes of emotionally charged basketball on Sunday, overcoming a 19-point deficit before surviving four Cal scoring attempts in the final minute. That kind of game leaves marks that do not always show up on an injury report, and head coach Billy Donahue will need to find the right tone to keep his team focused after a performance that would have felt like a championship in its own right.
New Mexico's most notable health note heading into Tuesday is guard Deyton Albury, who was sidelined by flu symptoms on Sunday. His expected return for Tuesday's home game is a meaningful boost for the Lobos, as his availability adds another ball-handler and perimeter threat to an offense that was already averaging close to 94 points per game in the NIT without him fully operational. If Albury is back to full health, New Mexico's offensive ceiling rises even higher than the total movement has already priced in.
The depth and freshness gap between these rosters is real and measurable. New Mexico has been playing at home, finishing games comfortably, and managing its rotation with the luxury of double-digit leads. Saint Joseph's has been fighting for its life in the second half of back-to-back road games, burning through its rotation in crunch time situations and relying heavily on its key contributors for extended high-leverage minutes. That disparity in physical state heading into Tuesday night is one of the quieter but more consequential variables in the entire game.
ATS and Total Picks
- Against the Spread: New Mexico -11.5
- Total: Over 152.5 (-115)
New Mexico covers at home tonight. The Lobos are rested, healthy, operating with Albury back in the rotation, and playing in front of a crowd that has watched their team look dominant for two straight NIT games. Saint Joseph's has been a remarkable story, but the Hawks are shooting poorly, emotionally and physically drained from a back-to-back rally effort, and facing an offense significantly more powerful than anything they have seen in this NIT run. The spread climbed back to 11.5 for a reason, and the juice on New Mexico at -104 is the cleanest number available on either side of the total or the spread.
The Over is also well-supported by everything the market has been telling you since Sunday. A four-point climb in the total over a single tracking window does not happen without a clear market rationale, and that rationale is the combination of New Mexico's offensive efficiency and Saint Joseph's defensive fatigue. Take the Over before the number moves again ahead of tip-off.
Final Score Prediction
New Mexico 86, Saint Joseph's 72
The Lobos win comfortably at home, sending Saint Joseph's home at the end of one of the more improbable road runs in recent NIT history. Buljan and Hall both reach double figures, Tennette continues his emergence as a tournament-level threat, and Albury's return gives New Mexico enough balance to cover the spread in both halves. The final combined score of 156 lands over the total, and the Lobos punch their ticket to Indianapolis while the Hawks leave Albuquerque with their heads held high after a remarkable run through the Mountain West.
How to Bet This Game
With the total already at 152.5 after a four-point climb and the spread oscillating between 10.5 and 11.5, getting your plays locked in before any additional Albury health updates shift the line further is the smart approach for Tuesday night's game at The Pit. The current -104 on New Mexico -11.5 is the most favorable price the Lobos have been available at in the tracking window, and the Over at -115 represents solid value before the number potentially moves again.
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