Saint Louis Billikens vs. Dayton Flyers Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Tuesday, February 24 2026
Use Code WWWC Everyone shoots for No. 1 and that's what the Flyers are attempting to accomplish in this Saint Louis vs. Dayton prediction. Saint Louis (25-2, 13-1) is first in the A-10 and 22nd in the NET Rankings, which means they are in very good shape for an at-large bid. Dayton (18-9, 9-5 A10) is tied with GMU and St. Joe's for third place in the conference, but is likely headed to the NIT unless it can win the conference tournament. The No. 13 Billikens dominated the first game 102-71 on Jan. 30 at home and will look for the regular season sweep on Tuesday night at 6pmET from Dayton, Ohio. Check out free College Basketball Picks and NBA predictions at Winners and Whiners.
Bills are no longer undefeated in conference play
Saint Louis has had a tremendous season. They've spent a good part of the season in the Top 25 and at first or second in Mid-Major polls (is Gonzaga really mid-Major?). But it's extremely difficult to continue to be consistently great night-after-night, especially after every team is gunning for you. On Feb. 17, the Billikens were 12-0 in the Atlantic 10 before falling at Rhode Island 81-76 as a 9.5-point favorite. That loss also broke an 18-game winning streak. Maybe they were looking ahead towards VCU on Friday as Saint Louis bounced back in a big way to down the second-place Rams at home 88-75 as a 7.5-point favorite.
The Bills got off to a poor start against VCU, getting down 22-8 in the first half, before outscoring the Rams 55-33 in the second half. Kellen Thames led the Bills with 16 points and Ishan Sharm added 13 points along with Robbie Avila and Amari McCottry. Thams and Sharma are both reserves making this team very deep and balanced. Unfortunately, the game ended with a fracas, but fortunately for Saint Louis, nobody was suspended for this matchup.
Avila (6-10, 240) is the team's best all-around playing, averaging 12.7 points and 4.2 assits, while shooting 50.9% from the field and 41.7% from the three-point line. Xavier transfer Trey Green is very steady, averaging 11.6 points, while shooting 48.6% from the field and 46.8% from three-point range. Saint Louis ranks 24th overall on KenPom, 39th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 24th in Adjusted Defense. They also rank 14th in total rebounding percentage.
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Great opportunity for Dayton
The Flyers are 84th in the latest NET Rankings, which means they are not on the bubble and there really isn't a lot of time left to get to the bubble, even if they win out and get to the A-10 final. That's life for a mid-major that needs a spectacular season with just a few losses to have any chance of making the NCAA Tournament. Dayton comes into this game having won three straight and four of their last five games. In their last victory, they beat Duquesne at home 78-66 as a 6.5-point favorite. The Flyers were led by Amael L'Etang (7-1, 235), who led the team with 17 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and two blocks. Javon Bennett added 14 points on 5-of-10 shooting.
Bennett leads the Flyers with 15.9 points and 3.0 assists, while shooting just 37.7% from the field (32.4% 3pt). De'Shayne Montgomery leads Dayton with 14.5 points and 2.5 steals on 51.15% shooting. Three-point shooting has been an issue for Dayton, which is averaging 33.7% (209th) from long range and allowing teams to shoot 36.5% from beyond the arc. KenPom has Dayton ranked 86th overall, 125th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 61st in Adjusted Defense. The Flyers are also 233rd in Total Rebounding Percentage.
Spread Pick and Prediction for Saint Louis vs. Dayton
Saint Louis vs. Dayton Odds and Picks
- Dayton +5.5 (4 units)
Upset time? The Flyers are 13-2 at home, and no joke. Winning a game like this could make their season. Barring a collapse of monumental proportions, the Billikens are headed to the NCAA Tournament, so a loss here won't crush them. Dayton was embarrassed in the first game and coach Anthony Grant will remind his team constantly of what happened. Dayton's three-point defense is better at home (34.1%) than overall (36.5%), as is their overall defense (41.4% FG). Not many mid-majors have a big man that talented in L'Etang. The 20-year-old from France is also a potential second-round pick if not higher in the NBA Draft.
Over/Under Pick for Saint Louis vs. Dayton
- Over 155.5 (5 units)
The first game went way over because Saint Louis put up 101 points at home. The key to most totals is tempo and Saint Louis is 13th in the nation in pace of play. Dayton is 159th and will try and be a little more methodical. The Billikens average 90.1 points per game to rank eighth in the nation. Dayton will need at least 80 points to win this game.
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