Saint Louis Billikens vs Michigan Wolverines Picks and Predictions for Saturday, March 21, 2026
Use Code WWWC Saint Louis and Michigan meet at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York, for an NCAA Tournament Midwest Region second-round matchup on Saturday at 12:10 PM ET on CBS. Saint Louis is 29-5, while Michigan is 32-3. The Billikens opened the tournament with a 102-77 win over Georgia, and the Wolverines followed with a 101-81 win over Howard. Michigan is a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 161.5. Let’s cash another ticket with our free college basketball picks.
Saint Louis Needs Its First-Round Offense to Show Up Again
Saint Louis averages 87.2 points per game and shoots 50.9% from the field, so the Billikens have the scoring to make this game competitive if they can keep the pace high. Robbie Avila leads the team in scoring at 12.9 points per game and also leads Saint Louis in assists at 4.1, giving the offense a center who can score, pass, and stretch defenses. Dion Brown leads the Billikens in rebounding at 5.5 per game and adds 11.1 points, while Trey Green matches Brown at 11.1 points and shoots 45.7% from three.
The most recent game matters here because Saint Louis looked like a team playing well. In the 102-77 win over Georgia, Brown led the Billikens with 18 points on 9-of-10 shooting and dominated around the rim. McCottry added 13 points and nine rebounds, while Avila finished with 12 points, five rebounds, and five assists. Saint Louis shot 58% from the field, scored 66 points in the paint, and ripped open the game with a 23-0 run that started late in the first half. That performance showed how dangerous this offense is.
The challenge against Michigan is that Saint Louis will not have the same physical advantage around the basket. The Billikens move the ball well, averaging 18.3 assists per game, and they have enough perimeter shooting to force defensive rotations. Still, Michigan is bigger at multiple spots and has more ways to contest in the paint. Saint Louis has to keep this game offensive, limit scoreless possessions, and avoid getting stuck in long defensive sequences against Michigan’s front line.
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Key Injuries - Saint Louis Billikens
- Kalu Anya — Out
Michigan’s Size and Depth Create Constant Pressure
Michigan averages 86.8 points per game and allows 69.5, giving the Wolverines one of the best two-way profiles in this region. Yaxel Lendeborg leads the team in scoring at 14.6 points per game and adds 7.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists. Morez Johnson Jr. leads Michigan in rebounding at 7.2 per game while scoring 13.1 points per game, and Elliot Cadeau leads the Wolverines in assists at 5.6 while directing a balanced offense that averages 18.5 assists per game. Aday Mara is another major factor with 11.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks.
Michigan’s first-round game also matters because it showed both the concern and the edge the Wolverines have in this matchup. The Wolverines gave up 46 first-half points to Howard and trailed by two early in the second half before taking over. Johnson led Michigan with 21 points and 10 rebounds on perfect shooting. Mara added 19 points, seven rebounds, and six assists, and Roddy Gayle Jr. scored 14. Once Michigan settled in, the size, ball movement, and depth wore Howard down. That second-half surge is the kind of control Michigan can apply when the game gets physical.
Against Saint Louis, Michigan’s frontcourt should shape the matchup. The Wolverines average 40.0 rebounds and 5.9 blocks per game, and they can punish smaller defenses with second-chance scoring. Cadeau’s playmaking also matters here because Saint Louis wants to turn games into flowing offensive exchanges, while Michigan can score efficiently without rushing. If the Wolverines defend the paint better than they did early against Howard, they will put Saint Louis under pressure on both ends.
Key Injuries - Michigan Wolverines
- Winters Grady - Out
- Ricky Liburd - Out
- L.J. Cason - Out
Saint Louis Billikens vs Michigan Wolverines Pick - Spread
- Michigan -12.5
Saint Louis is capable of scoring in bunches, and the Georgia game showed how sharp the Billikens can look when the offense is on its game. The problem is matchup strength. Michigan has more size, more frontcourt scoring, and more defense at the rim. Saint Louis can hang around early with movement and shot-making, but Michigan’s rebounding and depth will create a big lead over the 40 minutes. Michigan is the stronger side at -12.5.
Saint Louis Billikens vs Michigan Wolverines - Over/Under Pick
- Over 161.5
Both teams have shown they can push games above expectations in tournament settings. Saint Louis just scored 102 in its opener, and Michigan scored 101 while still playing tough defense. The Billikens will need offense to stay close, and Michigan has enough scoring balance to keep pressure on the total. With both teams comfortable playing in the 80s, the play here is over 161.5.
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