San Diego State Aztecs vs Nevada Wolf Pack Pick and Prediction for Tuesday January 6 2025
The San Diego State Aztecs head to Reno to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack at the Lawlor Events Center on Tuesday, January 6, 2026. This high-stakes Mountain West matchup is set for an 11:00 PM EST tip-off and will be broadcast live to a national audience on FS1. Both teams enter the night tied at the top of the conference standings with perfect 3-0 league records, making this a pivotal early-season battle for regional supremacy. For expert analysis and daily wagering insights on the full slate of college basketball, check out the latest free college basketball picks over at Winners and Whiners.
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San Diego State Aztecs Aiming for Road Dominance
The Aztecs enter Tuesday's matchup with a 9-4 overall record and are riding a three-game winning streak. Their most recent outing was a marathon 110-107 triple-overtime victory against Boise State on January 3, a game that tested their endurance and late-game execution. San Diego State has been a force in the Mountain West for years and currently sits at 3-0 in conference play, looking to secure a statement win on the road to maintain their spot at the top of the standings.
Offensively, San Diego State has been explosive this season, averaging 84.1 points per game while shooting an efficient 48.5% from the field. They are particularly dangerous from beyond the arc, where they rank 7th nationally with a 40.2% three-point percentage. Defensively, they allow 74.8 points per contest but excel at protecting the rim, averaging 4.5 blocks and 7.9 steals per game to disrupt opponent rhythms.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
The Aztecs have managed to stay relatively healthy compared to many of their conference rivals. There are currently no major reported injuries to the primary rotation players following their triple-overtime thriller. However, the heavy minutes played by the starters in that three-overtime game—most notably by their leading guards—will be a factor to watch as they transition to the high-intensity environment in Reno just three days later.
Nevada Wolf Pack Defending Lawlor Events Center
Nevada comes into this game with an impressive 11-3 overall record and a seven-game winning streak. Like their opponents, they are 3-0 in the Mountain West and are coming off a gritty 66-65 road win over Fresno State. The Wolf Pack have been dominant in their home building, posting a 7-1 record at the Lawlor Events Center this year. Under coach Steve Alford, they have transformed into one of the most balanced teams in the league, far exceeding their preseason projection of a seventh-place finish.
The Wolf Pack feature a balanced offensive attack that averages 76.6 points per game. They are one of the best teams in the country at getting to the free-throw line, ranking in the top ten nationally in both free throws made and attempted per game. Defensively, they are slightly more conservative than the Aztecs, allowing 71.1 points per game while focusing on limiting second-chance opportunities and forcing opponents into contested perimeter shots.
Nevada is monitoring the status of a few key players ahead of this top-tier clash. Center Joel Armotrading is currently listed as a game-time decision with a chest injury that has limited his availability recently. Outside of the frontcourt uncertainty, the Wolf Pack rotation remains intact, led by a backcourt that has been instrumental in their current seven-game surge through the month of December and early January.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State Aztecs Prediction
This matchup features two of the most disciplined programs in the Mountain West, and the historical series favors the Aztecs, who hold a 28-7 all-time lead. However, the circumstances of this specific meeting favor the home team. San Diego State is coming off an exhausting triple-overtime game, while Nevada has had a more standard recovery period following a single-point victory. Nevada's ability to draw fouls and get to the charity stripe could be the deciding factor if the Aztecs' legs begin to tire in the second half.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State Aztecs ATS Pick
- Pick: Nevada -1.5
The Wolf Pack have been exceptional at home, and the 1.5-point spread is essentially a pick'em. Nevada's 7-1 home record combined with San Diego State's recent 55-minute marathon against Boise State suggests the Wolf Pack will have the fresher legs in the closing minutes. Nevada has covered the spread in five of their last seven games, and with the "Blue Out" crowd expected in Reno, they should have enough energy to cover this small number against an Aztecs team that has struggled to cover on the road this season.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State Aztecs Total Pick
- Pick: Over 144.5
While these teams can play high-level defense, their offensive numbers suggest this line is a bit low. San Diego State's games have averaged nearly 159 combined points this season, and they possess one of the most elite three-point shooting percentages in the nation. Nevada's propensity for getting to the free-throw line keeps the clock stopped and the scoreboard moving. Given that nine of Nevada's games and seven of San Diego State's games have cleared this total already this season, the Over is the stronger play.
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