San Diego State Aztecs vs UNLV Rebels Picks and Predictions for Saturday January 24 2026
Use Code WWWC San Diego State heads to Las Vegas to take on UNLV at the Thomas & Mack Center on Saturday, January 24, 2026, with tipoff set for 4:00 PM ET on CBS. San Diego State is listed as the road favorite at -225 on the moneyline, while UNLV is +185. The Aztecs are -5.5 (-112) on the spread with the Rebels +5.5 (-108), and the total sits at 148.5 with the Over -115 and Under -105. Make sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more daily betting insights and matchup breakdowns.
Aztecs Bringing a Two-Way Profile Into Vegas
San Diego State enters this matchup at 13-5 overall, and while the road record was not provided in the game notes, the recent form shows a team that has largely played winning basketball. Over the last five games, the Aztecs have recently lost to GCU 70-69, but they’ve also recently won over New Mexico, Wyoming, Fresno, and Nevada. That run includes a couple of strong defensive results, and it’s the kind of stretch that typically travels well when the effort and attention to detail are consistent.
From a production standpoint, San Diego State is scoring 81.3 points per game while allowing 72.1 points per game. The Aztecs are efficient with a 48% field goal mark, and they pair that with solid work on the glass at 37.3 rebounds per game. They also move the ball at a quality level, averaging 16.2 assists per game, which speaks to their ability to generate good shots rather than settling for low-percentage looks early in the clock.
Defensively, San Diego State’s activity stands out. The Aztecs average 4.7 blocks and 8.3 steals per game, giving them multiple ways to disrupt opponents—either by contesting at the rim or by turning pressure into live-ball turnovers. That matters against a UNLV team that can score quickly when it gets comfortable. If San Diego State can force UNLV into a half-court game and make each possession a grind, the matchup starts to tilt toward the Aztecs’ steadier defensive identity.
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Rebels Heating Up and Trying to Protect Home Floor
UNLV comes into Saturday at 10-8 overall, and while the road record was not provided in the game notes, the recent results show a team gaining confidence. Over the last five games, the Rebels have recently won over Utah State, San Jose State, and Boise State in overtime, while recently losing to Colorado State and Wyoming. That overtime win is a good indicator of toughness, and the last two victories suggest UNLV is trending in the right direction heading into a home date with one of the league’s more physical opponents.
UNLV is averaging 79.3 points per game and allowing 76.4 points per game. Offensively, the Rebels are shooting 46% from the field and pulling down 36.7 rebounds per game, which is a strong enough foundation to keep them competitive on most nights. They average 14.4 assists per game, and while that’s lower than San Diego State’s figure, it can still be effective if the Rebels are finishing possessions and not turning the ball over against pressure.
On the defensive side, UNLV brings its own brand of disruption. The Rebels average 4.5 blocks and 8.7 steals per game, so this isn’t a matchup where only one team is capable of creating chaos. In a game with a relatively high total of 148.5, steals and blocks can swing both sides: they can create easy points in transition, but they can also lead to stretches where teams struggle to get clean looks. The Rebels’ ability to leverage home energy into defensive spurts is the biggest reason they can threaten the number as a home underdog.
San Diego State Aztecs vs UNLV Rebels Pick
San Diego State Aztecs vs UNLV Rebels Pick
- San Diego State -5.5 (-112)
San Diego State has the cleaner overall profile in this matchup, particularly with its efficiency (48% shooting) and the way it balances scoring (81.3 ppg) with defensive structure (72.1 ppg allowed). UNLV’s recent uptick is real, but the Rebels are still allowing 76.4 points per game, and that can be a problem against an Aztecs offense that typically benefits from extra possessions created by 8.3 steals and rim protection with 4.7 blocks. If San Diego State wins the rebounding battle and limits UNLV’s transition chances, covering -5.5 becomes the most reliable angle.
San Diego State Aztecs vs UNLV Rebels Total Pick
- Under 148.5 (-105)
I’m playing the Under here because both defenses have the tools to make scoring harder than the raw totals suggest. San Diego State’s defensive activity (4.7 blocks, 8.3 steals) can turn UNLV’s possessions into late-clock attempts, and UNLV’s own pressure (4.5 blocks, 8.7 steals) can force San Diego State to value each trip. With two teams that can disrupt rhythm, I expect more empty possessions than the number implies—especially if the game tightens in the second half and both teams lean into defense.
Final Score Prediction: San Diego State 77, UNLV 70
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