San Diego State vs. Colorado State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, February 21, 2026
Use Code WWWC On Saturday, the San Diego State Aztecs will play the Colorado State Rams in a Mountain West Conference basketball game, and we have you ready to go with our San Diego State vs. Colorado State prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Fort Collins, CO, is at 6:00 p.m. ET.
San Diego State is a 2.5-point spread favorite, and the game total is 137.5 points scored.
The Aztecs beat the Rams 73-50 on January 28, covering the spread as 9.5-point betting favorites. SDSU only led by six at halftime but dominated CSU 40-23 after the break. The Aztecs shot 54 percent from the field, won the rebounding battle 32-24, and outscored the Rams 30-14 in the paint. SDSU has won seven of the last ten matchups between these MWC rivals, and covered the spread in seven of those games. The under went 7-2-1. If you want the San Diego State vs. Colorado State prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
Aztecs coasted to victory in the first matchup
San Diego State (18-7 SU, 13-11 ATS, and 10-14 O/U) lost 73-63 to Grand Canyon in its previous game, dropping a game behind Utah State for the lead in the Mountain West hoops standings. The Aztecs were outscored 44-30 in the second half and shot just 35 percent overall (20% from three) in the game. SDSU scores 79.1 points per game (141st) on 47.7 percent shooting (45th), including 35.5 percent from beyond the arc (98th). The Aztecs surrender 69.5 points per game on defense (61st), and their opponents shoot 39.3 percent from the floor (12th) with a 32.3 three-point percentage (102nd).
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The Aztecs feature a lot of young talent in 2025-26, as well as a few reliable veterans. Nick Boyd and Jared Coleman-Jones have departed the program, but head coach Brian Dutcher has a deep squad capable of making noise in the NCAA Tournament this season. The Aztecs were unanimously picked to win the Mountain West, receiving all 26 first-place votes, and feature two All-MWC picks, junior guard Miles Byrd (10.6 PPG, 4.2 APG, and 2.0 SPG) and 7-foot sophomore forward Magoon Gwath (9.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 1.7 BPG), and the conference's preseason Freshman of the Year, guard Elzie Harrington (8.7 PPG).
San Diego State features ten players scoring between 5.0 and 12.5 points per game this season. Byrd is a bit of a Swiss Army knife after receiving Second Team All-MWC and All-Defense honors last season, and Gwath was named both MWC Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. Senior guard Reese Dixon-Waters (12.5 PPG and 3.6 RPG) is back after missing all of last season, offering two-way experience, and sophomore forward Pharaoh Compton (8.2 PPG on 73.9% shooting) has stepped up in his second season. As expected from a Dutcher-coached team, the Aztecs get it done on both ends of the court, as their top three scorers contribute a combined 4.3 steals per game.
San Diego State Aztecs Injury Report:
- Harrington last played on January 24 (lower leg) and is questionable for Saturday's game against the Rams.
Colorado State plays at a snail's pace
Colorado State (16-10 SU, 15-10 ATS, and 13-12 O/U) defeated UNLV 91-86 on Wednesday, pulling off the road upset as 2.5-point betting underdogs. They led by as many as 15, knocking down 59 percent of their shots and scoring 20 points at the foul line. They scored 48 points in the paint and assisted on 22 of their 32 made field goals. The Rams, who have won four straight, are 7-8 in MWC competition this season. Colorado State averages 76.6 points per game (195th) on 49.4 percent shooting (25th), including 39.4 percent from three-point range (10th). Defensively, the Rams allow 70.9 points per game (78th) on 45.3 percent shooting (252nd) and 34.7 percent from beyond the arc (248th).
Like SDSU, CSU is an experienced squad with plenty of depth. Leading scorer Nique Clifford departed for the NBA, and the Rams also lost their next three leading scorers, but five of their top six contributors this season are either juniors or seniors. With eight players averaging between 6.6 and 12.1 points per game, they are a well-balanced team. KenPom ranks CSU 90th nationally, including 51st in offensive efficiency and 204th in defensive efficiency.
Sophomore forward Kyle Jorgensen leads Colorado State in scoring at 12.1 points per game on 54.9 percent shooting, including 43.9 percent from three-point range. He also adds 4.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. He's hardly the only three-point marksmen on CSU's roster, as their top-eight scorers all shoot 38.9 percent or higher from long distance. A few other Rams to watch on Saturday against San Diego State are junior guard Brandon Rechsteiner (11.7 PPG and 2.7 APG), junior guard Josh Pascarelli (10.8 PPG and 3.0 RPG), and junior forward Carey Booth (9.9 PPG and 5.7 RPG).
Colorado State Rams Injury Report:
- Pascarelli is questionable (foot) for Saturday's game against the Aztecs.
San Diego State vs. Colorado State Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for San Diego State vs. Colorado State
- SDSU -2.5 (5 Units)
I expect the Aztecs to bounce back following a home loss in their last game against a Rams team they beat by 23 earlier this season. They still enter Saturday's matchup ranked 22nd nationally in defensive momentum, per Haslametrics, and held Colorado State to 50 points on 33 percent shooting in the first matchup. SDSU is especially stout inside the arc, ranking 19th in two-point defense, including 8th in mid-range defense. They allow the sixth-lowest near-proximity attempt rate and rank in the top 50 in opponent near-proximity shooting percentage, too. The Rams won't get any easy buckets inside the arc, and the Aztecs are also tough defensively on the perimeter. On the other end of the court, San Diego State will score plenty of two-pointers. They shoot a high percentage at the rim, and CSU ranks 271st in near-proximity defense and 286th in two-point defense.
Over/Under Pick for San Diego State vs. Colorado State
- Under 137.5 (4 Units)
These teams combined for only 123 points earlier this season in San Diego, and bettors should anticipate another defensive-minded matchup on Saturday in Fort Collins. The Aztecs scored just 73 points in the earlier game despite shooting 54 percent overall and 46 percent from three, numbers which will be difficult to match on the road. CSU plays at the second-slowest pace in the country (364th in schedule-adjusted tempo, per KenPom), forcing teams to be super-efficient to hit their team total. Given how consistently the Aztecs play on defense, expect fewer than 138 points in Saturday's game.
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