San Diego State vs. Michigan Picks and Prediction for Monday, November 24, 2025
Use Code WWWC San Diego State Aztecs (2-1) vs. Michigan Wolverines (4-0)
The college hoops betting action continues Monday, November 24, 2025, with the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas, NV, including a marquee matchup at Michelob ULTRA Arena, so here’s our San Diego State vs. Michigan prediction.
The Aztecs meet the Wolverines for the first time since 2021, when Michigan beat San Diego State 72-58 as a 9-point home fave. The Wolverines are 6.5-point favorites this time around, while the total sits at 148.5 points.
Read more about this San Diego State vs. Michigan prediction, and check out all our NCAAB picks for Monday’s card. The tip-off at Michelob ULTRA Arena is set at 10:30 PM ET.
San Diego State is coming off a shocking loss
The San Diego State Aztecs (2-1; 1-2 ATS; 1-2 O/U) have only played three games so far this season. After a couple of home wins over Long Beach State 77-45 and Idaho State 73-57, the Aztecs suffered a 108-107 double-overtime defeat to Troy this past Tuesday.
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Despite being listed as 14.5-point home favorites, the Aztecs led the Trojans by as many as four points. SDSU committed 20 turnovers and missed 14 of its 48 shots from the foul line. Junior guard Miles Byrd led the way with 24 points, while sophomore center Magoon Gwath had 20 points and seven rebounds.
It was Gwath’s season debut, as he recovered from a knee injury. Byrd tallies 13.7 points and 4.0 assists per game, while senior guard Reese Dixon-Waters posts 15.5 points and 6.0 boards a night. SDSU scores 112.6 points per 100 possessions (80th in the country) and allows 98.5 points in return (24th).
Michigan eyes its fifth straight W
The Michigan Wolverines (4-0; 1-3 ATS; 2-2 O/U) are undefeated in four showings this season. They’ve recorded a couple of home wins over Oakland, 121-78, and Middle Tennessee, 86-61 to go with a 67-63 road victory at TCU and an 85-84 overtime win against Wake Forest at the neutral site.
Last Wednesday, Michigan cruised past Middle Tennessee but failed to cover a 27.5-point spread. The Wolverines held the Blue Raiders to 30.4% shooting from the field (10-for-37 from deep). Michigan went 5-for-25 from deep while outscoring its opponents 50-12 in the paint.
Senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg tortured the Blue Raiders for 25 points and 12 rebounds. He averages 15.0 points and 7.8 boards, while junior center Adam Mara adds 11.5 points and 10.3 boards a night. Michigan scores 120.2 points per 100 possessions (16th in the country) and yields 95.1 points in return (8th).
San Diego State vs. Michigan Pick
Spread Pick for San Diego State vs. Michigan
- Michigan -6.5 (5 units)
This Michigan team looks deep. I mentioned Yaxel Lendeborg and Adam Mara, but the Wolverines have three more players with points per game in double digits. Junior guard Elliot Cadeau (8.8 PPG, 5.8 APG, 5.0 RPG) is a great facilitator, and the Wolverines’ offense has been terrific thus far.
Michigan is 17th in the country in 2-point percentage (62.3%). But the Wolverines look like a great defensive team, too. Their defense is fifth in 2-point percentage (39.2%) and 13th in free-throw rate (.226).
On the other side, the Aztecs are 11th in defensive turnover percentage (23.8%) and 20th in 3-point percentage (41.3%). However, they turn the ball over on 21.1% of their possessions (306th), and the Aztecs’ frontcourt is pretty thin behind Magoon Gwath. I expect the Wolverines to dominate on the glass and beat the number.
Over/Under Pick for San Diego State vs. Michigan
- Under 148.5 (5 units)
This game will be a joy to watch. We’ll see a great battle between Magoon Gwath and Adam Mara, and with these two guys in the paint, we won’t see a lot of easy baskets. Gwath had three blocks in his season debut, while Mara tallies three blocks per game. Michigan is 15th in the country in blocks per game (6.3).
The Wolverines like to play at a fast pace, and I’m pretty sure that the Aztecs will try everything they can to slow things down. SDSU needs to avoid turnovers and look for open shots from deep while playing aggressive defense. Anyway, I don’t want to rely on the Aztecs’ 3-pointers, so give me the under.
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