San Francisco vs. Minnesota Picks and Prediction, Saturday, November 22, 2025
On Saturday, the San Francisco Dons will face the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, and we have you ready to go with our San Francisco vs. Minnesota prediction, odds, and preview. The non-conference college basketball game tips off at 5:30 p.m. ET.
The Dons are two-point spread favorites, and the game total is 139 points scored.
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San Francisco is a big, talented team
San Francisco (4-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, and 1-3 O/U) beat Northwestern State 84-64 in its last game. The Dons' lone loss was at Memphis on November 8. USF scored 50 first-half points against the Demons, shooting 53 percent from the floor with 12 made three-pointers. They won the rebounding battle 33-27, took care of the basketball (eight turnovers), and scored 22 points at the charity stripe.
San Francisco scores 101.8 points per game (47th) on 48.2 percent shooting (95th), including 39.7 percent from three-point range (32nd). Its opponents average 81.8 points per game (232nd) on 36.8 percent shooting (30th), including 31.1 percent from long distance (156th). The Dons rank 84th nationally, including 84th in adjusted offensive efficiency rating and 87th in adjusted defensive efficiency rating, per KenPom.
USF compiled a 25-10 record last season, including 13-5 in West Coast Conference play. The Dons finished third in the conference's regular season standings and lost in the semifinals of the WCC Tournament. They accepted an invitation to the NIT, where they lost in the second round. San Francisco has been to the NIT in consecutive years and made the NCAA Tournament in 2022. Heading into its fourth season under head coach Chris Gerlufsen (69-35 record), USF was picked to finish third in the WCC Preseason Poll.
The Dons need to replace their leading scorers, but they remain an experienced team, returning seven players from their 2024-25 roster. The headliners of the returning group are Preseason All-WCC Team selection guards Tyrone Riley IV (9.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, and 50.2% FG% last season) and Ryan Beasley. Beasley was moved into the starting rotation in his last three games, averaging 20.3 points and 4.7 assists on 53.7 percent shooting, including 45.0 percent from three-point range. San Francisco also welcomes eight newcomers, including five transfers. Oregon transfer forward Mookie Cook is second to Beasley in scoring this season, averaging 13.2 points on 60.5 percent shooting, and junior forward David Fuchs (Rhode Island transfer) is averaging 10.2 points and 6.6 rebounds. Another player to watch is 7-foot senior forward Guillermo Diaz Graham, who started 25 games last season at Pittsburgh.
San Francisco Dons Basketball Injury Report:
- Leading scorer Ryan Beasley (14.0 PPG) missed the Don's last game (11/18) with an illness. His status is unknown, but since it's been several days, he's expected to play against Minnesota.
Minnesota has struggled from three-point distance
Minnesota (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, and 1-4 O/U) defeated Chicago State 66-54 in its previous game. The Gophers' lone loss this season was at Missouri on November 12. UM shot just 37 percent in its victory over the Cougars, but overcame its poor shooting performance by hitting 21 of its 27 free throws. The home team also dominated on the glass (14 offensive rebounds) and assisted on 18 of their 19 made field goals.
Minnesota scores 76.0 points per game (127th) on 44.9 percent shooting (213th), including 27.3 percent from three-point range (230th). Its opponents average 62.4 points per game (20th) on 41.0 percent shooting (121st), including 35.3 percent from long distance (277th). The Golden Gophers rank 93rd nationally, including 117th in adjusted offensive efficiency rating and 78th in adjusted defensive efficiency rating, per KenPom.
UM was 15-17 last season, with a 7-13 record in Big Ten play. They finished in a five-way tie for 12th place in the conference's regular season standings and lost to Northwestern in the first round of the B1G tourney. After the season, the school announced that it had fired head coach Ben Johnson, who compiled a 56-71 record in four seasons leading the team. With one winning season (19-15 two seasons ago) and zero NCAA Tournament appearances, Minnesota moved on from Johnson and hired Niko Medved, who previously coached at Furman, Drake, and Colorado State. He spent the past seven seasons at CSU, compiling a 143-85 record with three NCAA tourney selections.
Minnesota was picked to finish 16th out of 18 teams in the media's Big Ten preseason poll. The 2025-26 squad features 13 newcomers and two returning players, guard Isaac Asuma and forward Grayson Grove. Assuma averaged 5.6 points in 24.7 minutes per game as a freshman last season, while Grove redshirted. Senior guard Cade Tyson is off to a hot start to his UM career, averaging 23.4 points on 53.3 percent shooting and 39.3 percent from beyond the arc. He didn't see the court much last season at North Carolina, but he averaged 16.2 points and 5.9 rebounds with a 46.5% three-point mark two seasons ago at Belmont. A few other transfers expected to make an impact are junior forward Jaylen Crocker-Johnson (9.0 PPG and 4.4 RPG at Colorado State last season), senior guard Langston Reynolds (16.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 3.4 APG at Northern Colorado), and senior forward Robert Vaihola (7.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 1.4 BPG at San José State).
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Minnesota Golden Gophers Basketball Injury Report:
- Minnesota starting center Robert Vaihola (5.0 PPG and 7.6 RPG) hyperextended his knee in the team's last game and isn't expected to play versus San Francisco.
- Junior forward BJ Omot remains sidelined with a leg injury. He hasn't played this season.
San Francisco vs. Minnesota Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for San Francisco vs. Minnesota
- Dons -2 (5 Units)
San Francisco is a deep team (ten-man rotation with no players averaging more than 26 minutes) with size, which will be a challenge for Minnesota with its second-leading rebounder, Vaihola, likely out. Aside from Beasley, their roster is 6-foot-5 players and taller. The Dons can mix and match their lineups, but I expect they'll go big against the Golden Gophers to take advantage. With Beasley expected back, they should have plenty of scoring, as well. USF isn't shy to let it fly from long range (48.8% 3PT attempt rate), and they impressively knock down nearly 40 percent of their treys. A hot shooting performance would be tough for Minnesota to overcome, as it hits 27 percent of its threes (sixth-lowest in the country) despite Tyson's 39% mark from long range.
The Gophers didn't play well against Green Bay and Chicago State in their last two games and were blown out by Mizzou in the second half of their previous game. I'll take the Dons to cover the two-point spread.
Over/Under Pick for San Francisco vs. Minnesota
- Over 139 (4 Units)
Despite the slower-paced nature of these teams, I question whether either team will be tough enough defensively in a neutral court setting to keep the total under 139 points. San Francisco is an efficient three-point shooting team and could feast inside the arc, too, against a smaller Minnesota lineup. The Dons also struggle with turnovers (14.2 per game), however, and the Golden Gophers rank in the top 100 in opponent turnover percentage. I like Minnesota to capitalize on those miscues by scoring points in transition and getting to the free-throw line (24th-most FT attempts per game), making up for a lower overall shooting percentage.
These teams have trended to the under so far this season, but this total appears too low. Bet on the over!
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