San José State Spartans vs Utah State Aggies Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday January 3 2026
The Utah State Aggies (11-1, 2-0 MW) will host the San Jose State Spartans (5-8, 0-2 MW) in an early-season Mountain West Conference meeting. Utah State has won the last four head-to-head meetings, covering in three of those wins. Utah State was slated. to finish second, and San Jose State was pegged 10th in the official preseason poll.
Check out our Utah State vs San Jose State prediction for the right side in this game and the rest of our college basketball picks.
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Spartans are a huge underdog
San Jose State has struggled early against the 79th toughest schedule in the country. The Spartans are coming in on a three-game losing streak, which includes dropping the first two conference games straight up and against the spread against New Mexico and San Diego State.
Overall, KenPom has San Jose State rated as the 199th-best team. They are 168th in offensive rating and 244th on the defensive end. They are 86th in offensive rebounding percentage and 159th in knocking down 34.1% of their threes. One of the strongest areas for San Jose State has been free-throw shooting, ranking 82nd at 75.2%. Colby Garland leads the Spartans with 20.4 points and 4.2 assists per game. Yaphet Moundi (12.5 ppg, 7.6 rpg) and Jermaine Washington (10.7 ppg) have both been substantial contributors.
Strong start for Utah State
Utah State is currently in an excellent position early for a postseason bid if they meet expectations in conference play. They have faced the 109th-rated strength of schedule, and since suffering their only loss to South Florida 74-61 on December 4, the Aggies have won their last four games, including a 100-58 victory over Colorado State and a 72-63 win over Fresno State.
Utah State is 31st according to KenPom overall. They are 27th on the defensive end and 51st in adjusted offensive efficiency. They are 40th in offensive rebounding percentage, 100th in three-point percentage (35.5%), and 217th from the free-throw line (70.5%). Leading the Aggies are MJ Collins (19.9 ppg), Mason Falselv (15.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg), and Gary Clark (9.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg).
San Jose State vs Utah State Predictions
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
Spartans vs Aggies Against the Spread Pick:
- Utah State -21.5 (4 units)
The spread is large, but so is the talent gap. Utah State is 4–0 straight up at home and ranks 30th nationally in home games, while San Jose State is 0–4 on the road and rated 264th away from home according to BartTorvik. The Spartans’ inferior defense is a major concern against a Utah State offense that ranks 30th in effective field goal percentage. Utah State has won five of its last eight games by 21 points or more, and I expect them to win by a large margin again. I’ll back the Aggies to cover here
Spartans vs Aggies Total Pick
- Over 147.5 (3 units)
Utah State has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, ranks in the top third in pace, and will be facing a horrendous defensive team in San Jose State here. Although the Spartans like to play slower, once they fall behind they will be forced to speed up, which will help the scoring. The last three meetings between these teams have gone over, with at least 160 points scored in each matchup. Take the over.
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