SMU Mustangs vs. Cal Golden Bears Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Use Code WWWC It’s an ACC matchup on the hardwood in the Golden State as the SMU Mustangs travel West to take on the Cal Golden Bears Wednesday night and we have you covered with our SMU vs. Cal prediction. SMU comes in off a 94-70 home win over Boston College in their previous contest Saturday, covering the line as a 14.5-point favorite. Cal dropped Stanford 74-66 at home Saturday in their previous game, covering the line as a 1.5-point favorite. In the all-time series between the teams, the Mustangs own a 4-1 advantage and have won the last four meetings, including an 81-77 road win in the most recent matchup February 26, 2025. Read more about this SMU vs. Cal prediction! Struggling with handicapping? Get our top NCAAB Betting Picks and increase your bankroll!
Mustangs Looking For Third Straight Win
SMU won their second straight and fourth in the last five games as they rolled past Boston College at home in their previous contest. The Mustangs ran their record to 19-8 overall and stand eighth in the ACC with an 8-6 mark in conference play. Against Boston College, SMU led by as many as four and trailed by as many as seven in the first half before going on an 11-0 run to take a 40-36 advantage at intermission. The Mustangs outscored the Eagles 54-34 in the second half as they pulled away for the win. SMU shot 55.7% from the floor, including eight of 24 from three-point range, and held Boston College to 33.3% shooting in the contest. Jermaine O’Neal Jr. led six SMU players in double figures with 16 points off the bench in the victory.
On the year, SMU is putting up an average of 86.8 points a game, putting them 14th in the nation. The Mustangs pull down an average of 37.9 rebounds a night (62nd) while they dish out an average of 17.9 assists per contest. SMU is giving up an average of 77.6 points per game on the season, putting them 285th in scoring defense. Boopie MIller leads the team with 18.7 points, 3.6 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game on the year. Jaron Pierre Jr. (17.6 points, five boards) and Samet Yigitoglu (10.8 points, 7.9 rebounds) provide secondary scoring options. B.J. Edwards (13 points), Corey Washington (11.4 points, 4.9 rebounds), Jaden Toombs, Jermaine O’Neal Jr., Sam Walters, Mitchell Holmes and B.J. Davis-Ray are other pieces of the rotation for the Mustangs and coach Andy Enfield. SMU is shooting 50% from the field on the year, which is 17th in the nation. The Mustangs splash an average of 8.3 three-pointers a night while shooting 37.9% from beyond the arc, which is 20th in Division I. SMU is above average at the free throw line as they are converting 76.1% of their attempts at the stripe this year, putting them 51st in Division I.
Key Injury Report for SMU:
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- No Key Injuries
Cal Hoping to Take Care of Business at Home
Cal won their second straight and fourth in the last six games as they dropped Stanford at home Saturday in their previous contest. The Golden Bears ran their mark to 19-8 on the year and stand tied for ninth in the ACC with a 7-7 mark. Against Stanford, Cal never trailed as they scored the game’s first five points and then used a 7-0 run to break a 7-7 tie to take control of the game. The Golden Bears were up 36-25 at the half and led by as many as 14 in the second half while not letting the Cardinal closer than five to earn the win. Cal shot 34.9% from the floor, including nine of 26 from beyond the arc, and won the rebounding battle 46-40. Chris Bell led the Golden Bears with 20 points in the victory.
The Golden Bears put up an average of 78.7 points per game this season, which puts them 118th in the nation in scoring offense. Cal collects 34.9 rebounds per contest and dishes out 13.9 assists a night. The Golden Bears are above average defensively by allowing 72.7 points per contest, putting them 144th in the nation in scoring defense. Dai Dai Ames leads the team with 17.1 points plus 2.3 assists per game this season. The Golden Bears rely on John Camden (14.4 points, 4.8 rebounds), Justin Pippen (14.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.4 assists), Chris Bell (13.7 points, 2.7 rebounds) and Lee Dort (8.3 points, 7.7 rebounds) as secondary options offensively. Semetri Carr, Rytis Petraitis, Nolan Dorsey, DeJuan Campbell and Milos Ilic have to step up and contribute on both ends for coach Mark Madsen. Cal shoots 44.6% from the field as a team this season. The Golden Bears knock down 9.2 triples a night while shooting 37.6% from beyond the arc. Cal is above average at the charity stripe as they shoot 78.4% as a team at the stripe, putting them 10th in the nation.
Key Injury Report for Cal:
- Forward Rytis Petraitis (undisclosed) is questionable.
- Guard Lee Dort (thigh) is questionable.
SMU vs. Cal Pick
SMU vs. Cal Spread Pick
- SMU -3.5 (4 units)
Both teams are on the precipice of 20 wins on the year while sitting in the middle of the pack in the ACC entering this contest. The Mustangs have won four of five and stand 4-6 in Quad I games on the year. They have three more cracks at Quad I wins in their final four regular season games as they try to improve their resume for a spot in March Madness. SMU is just 3-5 on the road this year but Cal has had their issues in conference tilts, losing at home to Louisville, Duke and Clemson by double figures this season. SMU is a dangerous offensive squad and that helps them outgun Cal for the win.
SMU vs. Cal Over/Under Pick
- Over 161.5 (4 units)
SMU is 10th in offensive efficiency, 17th in field goal percentage, 25th in effective field goal percentage (56.6%), tied fr 96th in offensive rebounds per game (11.96) and 20th in three-point shooting. The Mustangs play at a fast tempo, ranking 88th in pace with 68.9 possessions a night. SMU has seen the over post a 16-11 mark in their 27 games with a posted total this season. Cal has seen the under post a 13-13 mark in their 26 games with a posted total on the year. The Golden Bears are 78th in offensive efficiency, 71st in defensive efficiency, 98th in field goal percentage defense (42.8%) and 30th in three-point defense (30.5%) this season. Cal is average in terms of tempo as they are 173rd with 67.3 possessions a game according to KenPom. Look for these teams to pile up points and push this one over the number.
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