SMU Mustangs vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction and Picks - November 28, 2025
Use Code WWWC Friday evening on the college hardwood, and we have an SMU vs Mississippi State prediction ready to rock and roll. The Mustnags enter this contest at a perfect 7-0 on the year, and they are off an 89-72 home win over Radford. Mississippi State comes in off an 81-78 OT win at home over New Orleans to move to 3-3 on the year. These teams met last year, and Mississippi State won that game on the road by a score of 84-79. Can SMU get revenge for that loss? Continue reading to see our SMU vs Mississippi State prediction.
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SMU Remains Perfect On The Year
SMU kept its perfect start alive with an 89-72 win over Radford on November 24, powered by Kevin Miller’s 25 points and 10 assists. Jaron Pierre Jr. added a double-double with 15 points and 13 rebounds, while Corey Washington chipped in 21 points and 12 boards. The Mustangs shot 50% from the field and knocked down nine threes, extending their record to 7-0.
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This team has been relentless offensively, averaging 92.7 points per game while shooting 50.4% from the floor. Miller has been the engine, not only scoring but distributing at nearly eight assists per game, while Pierre and Edwards provide steady secondary scoring. Washington’s rebounding presence and Yigitoglu’s size inside give SMU balance, and their 37.4% three-point shooting makes them dangerous from the perimeter. They’ve also been reliable at the line, converting nearly 78% of free throws, which helps them close out tight games.
Defensively, SMU has shown toughness, holding opponents to 73 points per game and limiting them to 39% shooting overall. Their ability to contest threes — opponents hit just 29.6% from deep — has been a key factor in their unbeaten run. With multiple guards capable of pressuring ball-handlers and a frontcourt that can protect the rim, the Mustangs have the tools to frustrate Mississippi State’s offense. The question will be whether their pace and efficiency can hold up against a physical SEC opponent on the road.
Mississippi State Survives Scare From New Orleans
Mississippi State survived a scare in its last outing, pulling out an 81-78 overtime win over New Orleans despite being favored by 24 points in the game. Amier Ali came off the bench to score 16 points, including the game-winning three with 1.9 seconds left. Josh Hubbard led the Bulldogs with 28 points, while Quincy Ballard added seven rebounds. The win snapped a two-game losing streak and moved Mississippi State to 3-3.
The Bulldogs’ offense has leaned heavily on Hubbard, who averages 24.5 points per game and has been their go-to scorer in every contest. Jayden Epps provides secondary scoring at 13.5 points per game, but overall, Mississippi State has struggled to find balance, averaging just 79.5 points per game. Their shooting numbers reflect that inconsistency, hitting 45.1% from the field and only 33.1% from three, while their free-throw shooting has been a glaring weakness at 65.9% (317th nationally).
Defensively, Mississippi State has allowed 80.3 points per game, and opponents are shooting 42.6% from the floor against them. While they rebound well at 38.5 boards per game, their perimeter defense has been shaky, giving up 32.7% from three. Hubbard’s scoring can keep them competitive, but the Bulldogs will need more contributions from their supporting cast to keep pace with SMU’s balanced attack. Playing at home in Starkville gives them a boost, but they’ll have to tighten up defensively to avoid being overwhelmed by the Mustangs’ offensive depth.
SMU vs Mississippi State Pick
SMU vs Mississippi State Spread Pick
- SMU -1 (5 Units)
SMU -1 feels like the right side because the Mustangs have been rolling offensively and showing balance across the roster. They’re averaging 92.7 points per game while shooting 50.4% from the field, with Kevin Miller running the show at over 20 points and nearly eight assists per contest. Jaron Pierre and B.J. Edwards give them multiple scoring options, while Corey Washington and Samet Yigitoglu provide size and rebounding inside. That combination of perimeter shooting (37.4% from three) and interior presence has made them tough to slow down, and their defensive numbers — holding opponents to 39% shooting — suggest they can frustrate Mississippi State’s attack.
On the other side, Mississippi State has leaned heavily on Josh Hubbard, who’s putting up 24.5 points per game, but the Bulldogs haven’t found much consistency beyond him. They’re averaging just 79.5 points per game and rank near the bottom nationally in free-throw shooting at 65.9%, which has cost them in close contests. More importantly, they’re 0-6 against the spread this season, a sign that oddsmakers have consistently overrated their ability to keep games tight. With SMU’s depth, efficiency, and defensive edge, laying the small number looks justified as the Mustangs have the tools to stay unbeaten and cover again.
SMU vs Mississippi State Over/Under Pick
- Over 164.5 (4 Units)
The Over 164.5 looks appealing because SMU has been playing at a blistering pace, averaging nearly 93 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field, and Mississippi State’s reliance on Josh Hubbard means they’ll push tempo to keep up. The Bulldogs may only average 79.5 points per game, but their defense has been shaky, giving up more than 80 points per contest, which sets the stage for a high-scoring matchup. With SMU’s balanced scoring and Mississippi State’s star-driven offense, both teams have the firepower to trade baskets for 40 minutes, making this total well within reach.
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