SMU vs. Stanford Picks and Prediction for Saturday, February 28, 2026
Use Code WWWC SMU Mustangs (19-9) vs. Stanford Cardinal (17-11)
The 2025-26 college basketball season goes on Saturday, February 28, with plenty of interesting games around the country, including the ACC showdown at Maples Pavilion in Stanford, CA, so here’s our SMU vs. Stanford prediction.
The Mustangs meet the Cardinal for the first time this season. They split a two-game set in 2024-25, with each team emerging victorious at home. SMU routed Stanford 85-61, and the Cardinal responded with a 73-68 victory.
Read more about this SMU vs. Stanford prediction, and check out all our NCAAB picks for Saturday’s card. The tip-off at Maples Pavilion is set at 6:00 PM ET. SMU is a slight 1.5-point road fave with a total of 154.5 points.
SMU’s road woes continue
The SMU Mustangs (19-9; 13-14-1 ATS; 17-11 O/U) have dropped four of their last eight games overall, and three of those four defeats have come on the road. The Mustangs won a couple of home games last week, outlasting Louisville 95-85 and Boston College 94-70. Last Wednesday, they suffered a 73-69 road loss at California.
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The Mustangs visited the Golden Bears as 4.5-point favorites. SMU missed 15 of its 26 shots from the foul line and committed six more turnovers than California. Senior guard Boopie Miller and senior forward Corey Washington led the way for the Mustangs, accounting for 15 points each.
Miller is having a great season, averaging 18.6 points, 6.8 assists, and 3.7 rebounds. Senior guard Jaron Pierre tallies 17.4 points and 5.0 rebounds per game, while fellow senior guard B.J. Edwards posts 12.7 points, 5.9 boards, and 4.9 assists a night.
SMU is 8-7 in conference play and No. 31 in the NCAA NET Rankings. The Mustangs score 125.7 points per 100 possessions (11th in the nation) while allowing 105.2 points in return (97th). They are 20th in the nation in 3-point percentage (37.9%) and 45th in 2-point percentage (56.3%).
Stanford hopes to stay on track
The Stanford Cardinal (17-11; 13-14-1 ATS; 11-17 O/U) have gone 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS over their last five games overall. They just avoided the third straight loss. After consecutive road defeats at Wake Forest 68-63 and California 72-66, the Cardinal beat Pittsburgh 75-67 as 8.5-point home favorites this past Wednesday.
Stanford trailed Pittsburgh by six points with seven minutes left on the clock, and the Panthers scored just four points down the stretch. The Cardinal made 50.0% of their field goals (7-for-20 from deep) while posting an 11/9 assist-to-turnover ratio. Freshman guard Ebuka Okorie led the charge with a monster line of 34 points, six rebounds, six assists, and three steals.
Okorie has been nothing short of spectacular thus far, averaging 22.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.5 steals. Chisom Okpara tallies 13.9 points and 3.9 rebounds per game, and senior guard Benny Gealer adds 10.7 points a night. Okpara is done for the season due to an injury.
Stanford is 6-9 in conference play and No. 73 in the NCAA NET Rankings. The Cardinal score 114.5 points per 100 possessions (91st in the country) while yielding 103.7 points in return (69th). They are 163rd in the country in 3-point percentage (34.2%) and 263rd in 2-point percentage (49.7%).
SMU vs. Stanford Pick
Spread Pick for SMU vs. Stanford
- SMU -1.5 (5 units)
Chisom Okpara’s absence is a massive blow for the Cardinal. Since Okpara hit the sidelines, Stanford has gone 4-7 SU and 4-6-1 ATS. Even with Okpara on the shelf, Stanford is a solid defensive team, but I don’t think the Cardinal will be able to contain the Mustangs for 40 minutes.
The Mustangs’ offense is elite. Their backcourt is full of great scorers, and the Mustangs’ frontcourt has a couple of good players in Samet Yigitoglu (10.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG) and Jaden Toombs (7.8 PPG, 3.9 RPG). I expect the Mustangs’ offense to make a difference in this game.
Over/Under Pick for SMU vs. Stanford
- Over 154.5 (5 units)
SMU leads conference play in 3-point percentage (41.0%) and ranks fourth in pace (69.1 possessions per 40 minutes). As I said, Stanford is a solid defensive team, but the Cardinal will have a tall task to slow the Mustangs down.
Stanford is second in conference play in opposing 3-point rate (.350) and fourth in opposing 3-point percentage (32.3%). However, the Cardinal are 17th in defensive rebound percentage (66.9%) and defensive free-throw rate (.411). The Mustangs love to crash the offensive glass, and they’ll go to the foul line more than usual in this matchup.
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