South Dakota State vs St. Thomas Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday March 5 2026
Use Code WWWC The Summit League Tournament tips off with a compelling quarterfinal matchup between South Dakota State and St. Thomas at the Denny Sanford PREMIER Center in Sioux Falls. Bettors searching for sharp college basketball predictions will notice the Tommies entering as a clear favorite, but tournament basketball often creates unique situations where rebounding, tempo, and efficiency play outsized roles.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: St. Thomas -6.5
- Total Pick: Under 149.5
- Projected Final Score: St. Thomas 78, South Dakota State 69
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Market | South Dakota State | St. Thomas | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Line | +6.5 (-102) | -6.5 (-120) | 150.5 (Over -115 / Under -105) |
Current Odds
| Market | South Dakota State | St. Thomas | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Line | +6.5 (-110) | -6.5 (-110) | 149.5 (Over -110 / Under -110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | South Dakota State | St. Thomas | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04 | 04:51:24 PM | +6.5 (-102) | -6.5 (-120) | |
| 03/04 | 05:21:11 PM | +6.5 (-110) | -6.5 (-110) | |
| 03/04 | 08:46:47 PM | +5.5 (-102) | -5.5 (-120) | |
| 03/05 | 03:40:53 AM | +6.5 (-110) | -6.5 (-110) | SDST 100%, SDST 100% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04 | 04:51:24 PM | 150.5 (-115) | 150.5 (-105) | |
| 03/04 | 08:19:57 PM | 150.5 (-110) | 150.5 (-110) | |
| 03/04 | 08:21:15 PM | 149.5 (-110) | 149.5 (-110) |
South Dakota State
South Dakota State enters the Summit League Tournament as a dangerous lower seed that relies heavily on physical play and rebounding to stay competitive. The Jackrabbits average 75.7 points per game while shooting 46 percent from the field, numbers that reflect a capable offense when they can generate second-chance opportunities.
The Jackrabbits’ best statistical advantage in this matchup comes on the glass. South Dakota State averages 37.3 rebounds per game, significantly higher than St. Thomas. In a neutral-site environment, extra possessions can become the difference between covering a spread and allowing a favorite to pull away late.
St. Thomas
St. Thomas enters as the No. 2 seed in the Summit League Tournament with a 23-8 record and one of the most efficient offenses in the conference. The Tommies average 83.3 points per game while shooting an impressive 51 percent from the field.
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Ball movement has been a major factor in the Tommies’ success this season. St. Thomas averages 17.2 assists per game, a sign of a well-balanced offensive attack that consistently generates high-quality scoring opportunities.
South Dakota State vs St. Thomas
South Dakota State’s ability to compete in this matchup depends heavily on controlling the rebounding battle and limiting St. Thomas’ offensive rhythm. If the Jackrabbits can generate second-chance points and prevent the Tommies from pushing the pace, they can keep the game competitive.
However, defending a high-efficiency offense like St. Thomas presents a significant challenge. The Tommies excel at spacing the floor and creating clean looks through ball movement, which often stretches opposing defenses.
St. Thomas has the type of offensive profile that typically translates well in conference tournaments. Efficient shooting, strong ball movement, and multiple scoring options make it difficult for opponents to key on a single player.
If the Tommies can limit offensive rebounds and avoid foul trouble, their scoring efficiency should allow them to maintain control of the game.
SDSU and UST Betting Trends
- St. Thomas finished the regular season with a 23-8 record.
- South Dakota State averages 37.3 rebounds per game.
- St. Thomas averages 83.3 points per game on 51 percent shooting.
- The Tommies average 17.2 assists per game.
SDSU and UST Key Injuries and Notes
- No significant injuries are reported for either team entering the Summit League Tournament.
- South Dakota State’s rebounding advantage could create additional possessions.
- St. Thomas has been one of the most efficient offensive teams in the conference.
ATS and Total Picks
- Spread: St. Thomas -6.5
- Total: Under 149.5
Final Score Prediction
South Dakota State’s rebounding edge should allow the Jackrabbits to remain competitive early, but St. Thomas’ offensive efficiency and balanced scoring attack are likely to take control as the game progresses.
Projected Final Score: St. Thomas 78, South Dakota State 69
How to Bet
When betting conference tournament games, evaluating pace and offensive efficiency is critical. St. Thomas’ ability to generate consistent scoring opportunities gives the Tommies a clear advantage in this matchup.
Before placing a wager, review available sportsbook promo codes and compare odds across the best sportsbooks. Some bettors also explore alternative options such as social sportsbooks.
Promotions like the bet365 bonus code and the fliff promo code can provide additional betting value during conference tournament action.
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