South Florida Bulls vs Rice Owls Picks and Prediction for Wednesday February 25 2026

Wednesday evening American Athletic Conference college hoops action, and we have a South Florida vs Rice prediction ready to roll. The Bulls are off an 87-66 home win over Memphis to move to 19-8 overall, including 11-3 within the AAC. Rice is off an 81-75 road loss to Tulane, which dropped them to 11-16 overall and 5-9 in league play. USF won last year's meeting at home by a score of 69-64. Continue reading to see our South Florida vs Rice Prediction.

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The Bulls Have Their Offense Humming

South Florida rolls into this matchup after an 87–66 dismantling of Memphis, a game where the Bulls looked every bit like the AAC’s top seed. They’ve now won five straight and sit at 11–3 in league play, riding an offensive surge that’s seen them average 85.6 points over their last nine games. In conference action they’re putting up 86.5 points, shooting 43.7%, and knocking down nearly 10 threes per game, all while leading the AAC in assists, made threes, and free‑throw attempts. The rebounding has been strong (38.3 per game), the ball movement crisp, and the defensive effort steady — opponents are scoring 77.6 points on 41.1% shooting, with USF doing a good job limiting second‑chance opportunities and forcing teams into tough, late‑clock looks.

The trip to Rice is about maintaining that rhythm and not letting a slower‑paced opponent drag them out of their flow. Rice struggles defensively and has had trouble containing teams that spread the floor and attack off the dribble — exactly the areas where USF has been thriving. The Bulls need to keep the tempo high, win the rebounding battle, and continue generating clean perimeter looks through ball movement. Defensively, staying disciplined against Rice’s shooters and avoiding unnecessary fouls will matter, but the matchup tilts toward USF if they simply play to their identity. With their confidence rising, their offense humming, and their versatility showing up every night, South Florida enters this one with a clear path to extending their lead atop the AAC.

Rice Has Been Plagued By Inconsistent Play

Rice returns home trying to steady themselves after an 81–75 loss at Tulane, their second straight defeat in a season defined by swings in form. They’re now 5–9 in AAC play, and the inconsistency shows up clearly in the numbers. In league action they’re scoring 73.4 points, shooting 41.9%, and leaning heavily on the three‑point line with 9.3 makes per game, one of the few areas where they’ve consistently held an edge. The defensive end has been the bigger issue — AAC opponents are putting up 77.9 points, shooting 45.7%, and getting 51.4% inside the arc, while also living at the free‑throw line. Rice rebounds well enough to stay competitive, but the lack of stops and the difficulty stringing together clean defensive possessions have kept them from building momentum.

Against South Florida, the challenge is steep. USF is playing as well as anyone in the league, pushing pace, scoring in bunches, and overwhelming teams with depth and ball movement. For Rice to hang around, they need to control tempo, protect the ball, and turn this into more of a half‑court game than USF prefers. The Owls have to hit threes, win the rebounding battle, and avoid the defensive lapses that have buried them in recent losses. If they can keep USF out of transition and force them into contested jumpers, they can make this competitive at home. But if the game opens up and the Bulls start dictating pace, Rice’s defensive profile makes it tough to trade punches for 40 minutes.

South Florida vs Rice Pick

South Florida vs Rice Spread Pick

• South Florida -11 (4 Units)

South Florida -11 makes plenty of sense because this is exactly the kind of matchup where their firepower overwhelms a defense that hasn’t shown it can hold up for long stretches. The Bulls are rolling, scoring in the mid‑80s for weeks, moving the ball, hitting threes, and getting to the line more than anyone in the AAC, and Rice simply hasn’t shown the resistance to slow that down. The Owls are giving up nearly 78 points in league play, opponents are shooting 46%, and they’ve struggled to keep teams out of the paint or off the offensive glass. When you pair that with USF’s pace, depth, and confidence, it’s hard to see Rice stringing together enough stops to keep this inside single digits. This is the kind of spot where South Florida’s offense just keeps applying pressure until the gap widens.

South Florida vs Rice Over/Under Pick

• Over 157.5 (5 Units)

The Over 157.5 fits because this matchup has all the ingredients for a high‑possession, offense‑driven game, especially with the way South Florida is playing right now. The Bulls have been living in the mid‑80s for weeks, they push tempo, they shoot a ton of threes, and they get to the line more than anyone in the AAC — all of which inflate totals. Rice, for all their inconsistency, can score at home and leans heavily on the perimeter, averaging more than nine made threes in league play. Their defensive issues are the real driver here: AAC opponents are putting up 77.9 points on 46% shooting, and they foul a lot, which means free points and a stopped clock. If USF dictates pace the way they usually do and Rice knocks down enough shots to keep chasing, this has the feel of a game that stays fast and offense‑heavy from start to finish.