South Florida vs. Alabama Preview, Picks and Prediction, Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Wednesday, the USF Bulls will play the Alabama Crimson Tide at Coleman Coliseum, and we have you ready to go with our South Florida vs. Alabama prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Tuscaloosa, AL, is at 8:00 p.m. ET.
The Tide are 15.5-point favorites, and the game total is 180.5 points scored.
These schools last played in 2014, a game Alabama won 82-71. If you want the South Florida vs. Alabama prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
USF is a high-tempo team
South Florida (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 O/U) defeated Charleston 81-75 in its previous game, failing to cover as 13.5-point spread favorites. The Bulls shot 41 percent overall despite hitting just 9 of their 32 threes, as they scored 38 points in the paint and 22 in transition. They also won the rebounding battle 47-42, grabbing 21 offensive rebounds.
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USF is coached by Bryan Hodgson, who is in his first season with the program. The 38-year-old previously coached Arkansas State to 45 wins in the previous two seasons, including a regular-season conference title last season. The Bulls went 13-19 last season, and only two players returned: sophomore guard C.J. Brown and senior forward De’Ante Green. Even with 13 new faces, they were picked to finish second in the American Athletic Conference.
Senior guard Joseph Pinion leads South Florida in scoring, averaging 14.6 points on 39.5 percent shooting. The Arkansas State transfer also averages 2.1 steals per game. A few other Bulls to watch against Alabama are senior guard Josh Omojafo (13.2 PPG and 4.5 RPG), sophomore guard CJ Brown (13.1 PPG and 5.2 APG), and senior forward Izaiyah Nelson (12.9 PPG and 9.3 RPG).
South Florida Bulls Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
Alabama needs a bounce-back win
Alabama (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, and 5-5 O/U) lost 96-75 to number one Arizona on Saturday, failing to cover as three-point 'dogs. Bama led by two at halftime, but the Wildcats pulled away in the second half, outscoring the Crimson Tide by 23 points. The Tide outshot the Cats overall and hit two more threes, but were demolished on the glass (-20 rebounding margin), allowing 22 offensive rebounds. They were outscored 44-22 in the paint and committed 15 turnovers, as well.
The Crimson Tide were picked to finish fourth in the SEC preseason poll. Star guard Mark Sears and star forward Grant Nelson must be replaced, but there are some significant pieces back, and the next group of playmakers is eager to take their places. Head coach Nate Oats (152-66 at Bama) welcomes back five players from last season's Elite Eight team, including 2025 All-SEC freshman selection Labaron Philon Jr. (19.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, and 1.3 SPG this season).
Sophomore guard Labaron Philon Jr. (21.7 PPG and 5.4 APG) and junior guard Aden Holloway (15.6 PPG) pace the Tide in scoring this season. Philon also averages 5.4 assists per game. A few other Alabama stars to watch against South Florida are senior guard Latrell Wrightsell (11.8 PPG), Florida State transfer forward Taylor Bol Bowen (10.6 PPG and 4.7 RPG), and freshman forward Amari Allen (10.3 PPG and 6.9 RPG).
Alabama Crimson Tide Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
South Florida vs. Alabama Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for USF vs. Alabama
- Alabama Crimson Tide -15.5 (4 Units)
This isn't an ideal matchup for the Bulls. They are among the weakest teams in the country defending the three-ball (340th in opponent 3PT%), and the Tide shoot a high volume of long-range shots (seventh-highest 3PT attempt rate). Bama was humbled in its previous game by top-ranked Arizona and will be eager to bounce back with a statement win at home. USF will attempt to get the ball down low (sixth-highest near-proximity attempt rate), but Alabama ranks 4th in opponent near-proximity shooting percentage.
South Florida could be competitive for stretches of action, but this isn't a good spot for the Bulls, especially on the road (ranked 315th in Haslametrics' Away from Home metric). Bet on the Tide to cover!
Over/Under Pick for USF vs. Alabama
- Under 180.5 (5 Units)
This matchup pits two high-tempo teams, but the 180.5-point total is too high. These teams are both 5-5 to the over/under this season, but the under is 4-1 in USF's previous five games, and it cashed in Alabama's last two games. Both teams have red flags, too. Arizona bullied Bama in the second half of its previous game, and it's unclear how the home team will respond after such a brutal loss. Meanwhile, South Florida hasn't played well on the road and doesn't match up well against Alabama's stout interior defense.
Even if the Tide put up 90-plus points, I don't envision the total surpassing 180 points.
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