St. Bonaventure vs. Dayton Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, February 3, 2026
Use Code WWWC Another strong Atlantic 10 matchup on Tuesday night features a St. Bonaventure vs. Dayton prediction. The Bonnies (13-9, 2-7 A10) are having a tough season, but they are 3-3 on the road. They take on Dayton (14-8, 5-4 A10), who will look to go 11-2 at home when they host St. Bonaventure at 7pmET. These teams met just once last season, with the Bonnies winning 75-53 at home as a 2.5-point dog. The Flyers are a 9.5-point favorite, with a total of 146.5. Check out more free College Basketball predictions and NBA picks at Winners and Whiners.
Bonnies are playing better basketball
St. Bonaventure lost four straight five straight games from Dec. 31 to Jan. 17. Since suffering a bad road loss to La Salle (78-74) on Jan. 17, the Bonnies have won two of four games, but their two losses came against the league's two best teams in Saint Louis (97-62) and GMU (77-73). They also defeated Loyola-Chicago (84-70) and Duquesne (87-79) before falling to George Mason at home as a 1.5-point dog.
The Bonnies led by as many as 14 points in the second half but couldn't hold on to the lead. A big part of the problem was free-throw shooting (14 of 25). They were also -10 on the boards, but shot 55% from the field. Frank Mitchell led the Bonnies with 25 points and six rebounds with three steals. Cayden Charles added 13 points and four steals as St. Bonaventure forced 16 turnovers.
Free-throw shooting has not been a major concern (75%), but defense has. According to KenPom, St. Bonaventure ranks 150th overall, 109th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 238th in Adjusted Defense. Mitchell leads the Bonnies with 16.4 points per game and 9.7 rebounds, while Darryl Simmons II adds 15.9 points on 44.2% shooting (42.3% 3pt).
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Flyers are not flying
Dayton comes into this matchup having lost four straight games. That includes getting hammered by No. 21 Saint Louis on the road, 102-71, on Friday. De'Shane Montgomery scored 23 points to lead the Flyers, who shot 45% from the field. They lost because their defense was a no-show as the Billikens shot 62% from the field and 61% (17 of 28) from three-point range. Saint Louis has now won 15 straight and is 9-0 in the Atlantic 10.
The Flyers are led by Javon Bennett, who averages 16 points and 3.3 assists per game, but is shooting just 36.4% from the field and 30.8% from long range. Montgomery adds 15.3 points, while shoting 53.9% from the field and 38.3% from three-point range. Dayton ranks 88th overall on KenPom, 151st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 49th in Adjusted Defense. Despite that number, Dayton's three-point defense has been atrocious, ranking 336th (36.6%).
Spread Picks and Prediction for St. Bonaventure vs. Dayton
St. Bonaventure vs. Dayton Picks and Odds
- St. Bonaventure +9.5 (5 units)
The Bonnies are 3-3 on the road this season and are playing decent basketball. Everyone is getting crushed by Saint Louis, but they've been competitive with more teams, losing by four points in three straight games to Fordham, St. Joe's and La Salle, before winning two of four games. Dayton has lost four straight, mainly due to poor defense. The Flyers are allowing teams to shoot 44% from the field against them (167th) and rank 336th in three-point defense. The Bonnies will take advantage as they are shooting 47% from the field and 37% (44th) from three-point range. Dayton is also just 260th in total rebound rate, while the Bonnies are 106th. Take the Bonnies to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for St. Bonaventure vs. Dayton
- Over 146.5 (4 units)
Both teams are lacking one very important facet of the game and that's defense. Dayton is also 148th in Adjusted Tempo and St. Bonaventure is 204th. Dayton has gone over in three straight games, while the Bonnies have gone over in five straight and six of seven. Dayton is averaging 79.7 points per game at home and St. Bonaventure is allowing 74.7 points on the road and 48.1% shooting from the field. This will be a high-scoring g A-10 game.
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