St. John's vs. Baylor, Picks, Odds, Prediction, Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025
We have a Players Era Festival matchup from Las Vegas in this St. John's vs. Baylor prediction. Both teams played on Monday and this was a scheduled matchup. No. 14 St. John's (3-1) is coming off a game against No. 15 Iowa State (83-82 loss), while Baylor faced Creighton earlier on Monday and won 81-74. Both teams will meet at 5 p.m. ET from Vegas with an opportunity to move on in this NIL-based tournament. Last season, Baylor edged the Red Storm 99-98 in overtime in the Baha Mar Championship game. St. John's opened as a 5.5-point favorite and the total was 162.5 before each team played on Monday. Check out more big games and free college basketball picks on Winners and Whiners, along with some holiday football this week!
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Red Storm bounce back from rare loss, then fall again
St. John's was 3-1 coming into this tournament before facing Iowa State. Oziyah Sellers scored 20 points to lead the Red Storm, who fell to Iowa State by one on Monday. Sellers had a chance for the game-winner but missed a layup down the stretch and Big East preseason player of the year Zuby Ejiofor’s missed a 3-point attempt shot at the end.
Their only other loss came against then No. 15 Alabama on Nov. 8 (103-96). Ejiofor led the way with 27 points and shot 9-of-12 from the field. They bounced back from that loss to crush William & Mary by 33 and then destroyed Bucknell 97-49 on Nov. 20 as a 28-point favorite.
Bryce Hopkins leads the Red Storm with 15.5 points and shoots 56.8% from the field. The 6-7 Providence transfer averaged 15.5 points per game two seasons ago and 8.6 rebounds. He missed most of last season due to injury. Ian Jackson adds 14.4 points in just 18.5 minutes per game. Jackson comes in as a transfer from North Carolina, where he averaged 13.3 points per game last season. Ejiofor (6-9, 245) adds 15 points and 6.2 rebounds with 3.0 assists per game.
St. John's is ranked 16th by KenPom, 21st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 13th in Adjusted Defense.
Bears pass first test
Baylor beat Creighton on Monday in the Players Era Invitational 81-74. Cameron Carr led five players in double figures with 21 points and nine rebounds.
Baylor has played just three games before Las Vegas and handled all three, including a 94-81 win over Tarleton State on Nov. 14, but didn't cover the 24. Their only high-major game came against Washington on Nov. 9. The Bears took the game 78-69 and had six players in double figures, led by Carr, who had 16 points and six rebounds. Baylor's defense held Washington to just 41% shooting from the field and 15% (3 of 20) from long range.
In the win over Tarleton State, Carr came up big again with 27 points and three blocks. The Bears shot 58% from the field and 11 of 27 (41%) from beyond the arc. Carr is a 6-5 transfer from Tennessee, who's averaging 23.7 points, 2.0 blocks and 4.3 rebounds, while shooting 67.6% from the field and 53% from beyond the arc. Guard Tounde Yessoufou (6-5, 215) is a talented freshman who averages 16.3 points and 5.0 rebounds per game.
Baylor is ranked 20th overall by KenPom, 19th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 36th in Adjusted Defense.
Key Injury Report for Baylor:
- C Justin Bodo (arm) is out. The 6-11 High Point transfer averaged 5.3 points and 8.4 rebounds last season.
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Spread Pick for St. John's vs. Baylor
St. John's vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick
- St. John's -4.5 (4 units)
These tournaments can be tricky because you have very little time to prepare for each team. Scott Drew is a really good coach, but he's not Rick Pitino. Give me Pitino in a tournament setting where he can get his team ready, especially after a very tight loss. This is also a revenge game for St. John's and Pitino will certainly remind the players who were there, including Ejiofor, who had 22 points and 10 rebounds. The Red Storm will also dominate the glass as they rank 44th in rebounding rate and Baylor ranks 219th.
Total Pick for Baylor vs. St. John's
- Over 162.5 (4 units)
These teams love to push the ball, especially St. John's, which is 9th in Adjusted Tempo. Baylor is at 162nd, but they are shooting 51.1% from the field and allowing teams to shoot 472% from the field in three games. St. John's is shooting 51.1% from the field.
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