Stanford vs. Virginia Picks and Prediction for Saturday, January 10, 2026
Use Code WWWC Stanford Cardinal (13-3) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (13-2)
The 2025-26 college basketball season goes on Saturday, January 10, with the Stanford Cardinal taking on the Virginia Cavaliers in the ACC showdown at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, VA, and we’ve got you covered with our Stanford vs. Virginia prediction.
The Cardinal meet the Cavaliers for the second straight season. A year ago, Stanford routed Virginia 88-65 as an 8-point home favorite, and the game flew over the 125.5-point line.
Read more about this Stanford vs. Virginia prediction, and make sure to check out all our NCAAB picks for Saturday’s card. The Cavaliers open as 11.5-point home favorites with a total of 145.5 points. The tip-off is set at 2:15 PM ET.
Stanford eyes its third straight victory
The Stanford Cardinal (13-3; 9-7 ATS; 6-10 O/U) have won six of their last seven games overall. After stopping their four-game winning streak with a 47-40 home loss against Notre Dame, the Cardinal strung together a couple of wins over Louisville 80-76 at home and Virginia Tech 69-68 on the road.
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Eight days ago, the Cardinal upset the No. 16 Cardinals as 7.5-point underdogs. Stanford went 9-for-19 from downtown and committed just nine turnovers. The Cardinal found a way to beat Louisville despite missing 10 of their 31 free throws, and freshman guard Ebuka Okorie led the way with 28 points.
Last Wednesday, Okorie dropped 31 points on Virginia Tech, including the winning 3-pointer with three seconds left on the clock. Okorie averages 22.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.1 assists, while senior forward Chisom Okpara tallies 14.6 points and 4.0 rebounds per game.
Stanford scores 115.0 points per 100 possessions (78th in the country) and allows 102.1 points in return (65th). The Cardinal (2-1 in conference play) are No. 70 in the NCAA NET Rankings.
Virginia aims for its third straight W, too
The Virginia Cavaliers (13-2; 10-5 ATS; 7-8 O/U) have won eight of their previous nine games overall. After stopping their six-game winning streak with a 95-85 triple-overtime defeat at Virginia Tech, the Cavaliers have beaten NC State 76-61 on the road and California 84-60 at home.
Last Saturday, Virginia held NC State to 36.0% shooting from the field (5-for-20 from deep). The Cavaliers made 50.0% of their field goals (13-for-33 from deep), and junior guard Sam Lewis led the charge with 23 points.
Last Wednesday, the Cavaliers dominated California. Once more, Virginia shot 50.0% from the field (9-for-29 from deep). The Cavaliers outrebounded the Golden Bears 45-26 on the night, and senior guard Malik Thomas led the way with 20 points and four rebounds.
Freshman forward Thijs De Ridder is the team’s leading scorer with 16.1 points per game, while Thomas tallies 12.8 points a night. The Cavaliers (2-1 in conference play) score 124.0 points per 100 possessions (11th in the country) and allow 98.4 points in return (30th). They are No. 19 in the NCAA NET Rankings.
Stanford vs. Virginia Pick
Spread Pick for Stanford vs. Virginia
- Stanford +11.5 (5 units)
The Cavaliers have done a great job in their first year under Ryan Odom, though their strength of schedule hasn’t been exactly challenging (153rd in the country, according to KenPom). Virginia leans on 3-pointers a lot. The Cavaliers are 56th in 3-point rate (.457) and 33rd in 3-point percentage (37.2%). Their defense is sixth in 2-point percentage (43.4%) and 29th in 3-point percentage (29.6%).
Stanford’s strength of schedule is 123rd, and the Cardinal have done a great job, too. They are 19th in the country in opposing 3-point rate (.328) and 29th in defensive turnover percentage (20.7%). Stanford takes good care of the ball and loves to get to the foul line (32nd in free-throw rate, .439).
I expect the Cavaliers to win at home, but covering the spread might be a tall task. The Cavaliers heavily rely on three freshmen and cannot count on senior guard Jacari White (10.9 PPG), who’s been hitting 2.4 triples per game on a 50.0 percentage clip.
Stanford doesn’t have a lot of depth. But the Cardinal’s defense and rebounding have been solid thus far, and Ebuka Okorie has been unstoppable. Okorie has scored at least 28 points in four of his last five games.
Over/Under Pick for Stanford vs. Virginia
- Under 145.5 (5 units)
Stanford has to bring its best defense in order to upset Virginia. The Cardinal need to slow down the Cavaliers’ 3-point shooting. Neither team prefers to play at a fast pace, so I will take the under on the total.
Stanford’s defense has been pretty aggressive thus far. As I noted, the Cardinal force a turnover on 20.7% of opposing possessions. The under is 5-1 in Stanford’s last six games overall, and it is 4-1 in Virginia’s previous five.
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