Tennessee Volunteers vs Iowa State Cyclones Picks and Predictions for Friday, March 27, 2026
Use Code WWWC Tennessee takes on Iowa State in the Sweet 16 at 10:10 PM ET on TBS and truTV at the United Center in Chicago. Tennessee is 24-11 after tournament wins over Miami (OH) and Virginia, while Iowa State is 29-7 after beating Tennessee State and Kentucky. Iowa State is a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 138.5. Keep it rolling with our free college basketball picks.
Tennessee’s guard play has carried the Vols into Chicago
Tennessee averaged 79.4 points and allowed 69.1 points per game during the regular season. Ja'Kobi Gillespie averaged 18.4 points and 5.6 assists, Nate Ament averaged 16.9 points and 6.4 rebounds, while Felix Okpara averaged 7.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks. The Volunteers also averaged 42.5 rebounds and 17.1 assists, so this was not just a one-guard offense, as passing was a key to the Volunteers' scoring. Tennessee played with pace, crashed the glass, and had enough frontcourt depth to make teams defend the rim from start to finish.
That balance has carried into the tournament, where Tennessee is averaging 78.5 points and allowing 64.0 through two games. Gillespie has led the way at 25.0 points and 7.5 assists per game in the tournament, while J.P. Estrella has averaged 12.0 points and 7.5 rebounds. Tennessee put up 78 on Miami (OH) behind Gillespie’s 29 and then beat Virginia 79-72 with Ament scoring 16, Gillespie adding 21, and Bishop Boswell posting 13 points with nine assists. Tennessee has also averaged 19.5 assists in the tournament, which is important against an Iowa State defense that forces teams into rushed halfcourt possessions.
Key Injuries - Tennessee Volunteers
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- Cade Phillips - Out
Iowa State’s scoring depth has been overwhelming in the tournament
Iowa State averaged 82.5 points and allowed 65.3 points per game during the regular season. Milan Momcilovic averaged 17.2 points to lead the Cyclones, Joshua Jefferson averaged 16.4 points and a team-high 7.4 rebounds, while Tamin Lipsey averaged 13.3 points with 5.1 assists. The Cyclones also averaged 17.4 assists and 9.1 steals. Iowa State had multiple scorers and enough shooting to punish a help defense.
Iowa State’s depth has been even more evident in the tournament. The Cyclones are averaging 95.0 points and allowing 68.5 through two tournament games. Momcilovic is averaging 18.5 points in the tournament, Killyan Toure is at 17.5 points and 7.5 rebounds, and Lipsey is averaging 14.5 points, 6.0 assists, and 4.0 steals. Iowa State scored 108 against Tennessee State with Toure scoring 25 and Nate Heise adding 22, then handled Kentucky 82-63 with Lipsey putting up 26 points and 10 assists while Momcilovic added 20. The one issue is injuries. Jefferson, the regular-season rebounding leader, is listed as a game-time decision, and that could hurt against a strong Tennessee frontcourt.
Key Injuries - Iowa State Cyclones
- Joshua Jefferson - Game Time Decision
- Xzavion Mitchell - Game Time Decision
- Mason Williams - Out
Tennessee Volunteers vs Iowa State Cyclones Pick - Spread
- Tennessee +4.5
I’m taking Tennessee plus the points. Iowa State has been the better scoring team through two tournament games, but Tennessee’s half-court execution has been better than the totals suggest. Gillespie is controlling games, Boswell has added playmaking, and Estrella, plus Okpara, give Tennessee enough size to keep the Volunteers close the entire way. Jefferson’s ankle status also matters because Tennessee attacks the glass and thrives on second-look opportunities. Iowa State can win, but this number gives enough room in what looks more like a one-possession game. Tennessee will keep this inside the number.
Tennessee Volunteers vs Iowa State Cyclones - Over/Under Pick
- Under 138.5
The under is the better play. Iowa State has been explosive so far in the tournament, but Tennessee’s defense and rebounding will keep this as more of a half-court game than up-tempo. The Volunteers have allowed only 64.0 points per game through two tournament wins, and Iowa State allowed Kentucky just 63 in the last round. Both teams can score, but both can also defend and can make teams work late into the shot clock. This has the look of a game played in the half-court rather than at a quick pace. Under 138.5 is the stronger play.
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